The heat continues to bake the region and there is no real definite sign of it ending although there will be a slow drop in the highs ending towards the end of next week.

The hottest looks to be on Tuesday as highs should soar to between 101-106 through the region, downtown which so far as maxed out @ 103 may eclipse that and this should turn into the hottest day of the summer I think. Hopefully from there it's downhill but there are no real serious cold fronts on the horizon. What we need is some rainfall. Here is the way the month of July has gone...

Specifically for the area the numbers are generally in the 1-3" range...well below average...

KCI: 2.26" (-2.04")
Downtown: 3.28"
Olathe: .33"(!)
St Joseph: NA
Lees Summit: 1.85"
Gardner: .88"
Topeka: 1.56" (-2.15")
Pleasant Hill: 1.56"
Sedalia: 1.50" (-2.82")

As is typical, there were some areas that had healthy rainfall for the month, and that would be N MO which really cashed in their chips FRI-SAT...Chillicothe has had 4.6" most of which occurred yesterday. Goodness knows there have been drier July's. It happens in the summer in the midwest and since we typically rely on t/storms for rainfall in the summer months, we all know how scattered by nature that activity could be.

The month will also end some 4.7+ degrees above average. June was 2.4 degrees above average so for the summer thus far we're running some 3.6 degrees above average. For those who may remember August last year was brutal around these parts with temperatures, in relation to average 4.6 degrees above average. So in essence for as bad as last August was here, this July is worse (again in relation to average).

Thus far, in downtown KC we've had a bunch of days 100+. How do we stack up, through yesterday compared to some other cities...take a look and the graphic. AS of this writing Tulsa and Wichita have already hit 100 today with OKC not far behind and Topeka is at 99 degrees.

Farther south where the drought gets a lot worse, Dallas is on the verge of tacking on another day with highs 100+ in a row (97 as of 1PM). This graphic is through yesterday.

Hey before I go...a big thank you to all the FBer's this AM who helped out and filled in the joke line...It's So Hot...here are some of the good ones, feel free to check out the FOX 4 KC Morning News page for some other good ones that were borderline tasteful, those I thought were a riot.

IT'S SO HOT THAT...

Its soo hot outside, my grass is cutting itself
It's so hot, the dragon flies are breathing fire.
It's so hot, if I go outside I'm going to render down in my own fat.
Its so hot that Satan was vowing to behave so he wouldn't end up going to Kansas.
It's so HOT I saw 2 trees fighting over a dog.
It's so hot...Paris Hilton has applied to trademark the phrase "That's hot"
It's so hot the cows are giving evaporated milk.
the new saying is "when KC freezes over"
Its so hot I had to wear a bullet proof vest while tending the corn field today...
its so hot, we had to change the forecast from heat wave to heat tsunami.
my cookies cooked in the car
It's so hot the trees are following the dogs around !
It's so hot people that have had plastic surgery are melting.
It's so hot, William Shatner's toupe fused to his scalp...
I'm ovulating poached eggs....(2nd favorite)

AND FINALLY MY FAVORITE...

It's so hot my hot flashes give me the chills! Thx Judy
Stay cool one and all!

Joe

Well it's been an eventful 24 hours, with heavy rainfall up towards the N of the KC area and some scattered, at best, showers around the metro...now things are settling down and starting to warm-up again with readings in the middle 80s as of this writing and heading back up to near 90 before the day is done. This will be the "cool" day for the next 5-6 days I think as another surge of summer heat heads this way, maxing out on Tuesday asI talked about on the air this AM.

The rainfall last night and this AM was impressive across N MO, anywhere from 1-3" or so fell up there, seemed to be maxed out along the 36 highway corridor region...take a look at the ground truth numbers from the NWS...

Click on that map to make it larger...

Sadly while there was some rain in the metro this AM, it was rather scattered and also missed most of the reporting stations...so the dry spell goes on for another day...and really there is no appreciable rain in site for awhile, although opportunities will develop as the week moves along.

The heat will once again become the big issue as our dome of heat once again expands back up to the north. Emporia, as I write is 93 now...and aloft our temperatures above us today would support highs near 100. So as we erode this rain/cloud cooled air today/tonight, we should once again soar tomorrow. While 100 may be a push in downtown KC, by Monday that should not be an issue and I'm forecasting 100+ for Monday and Tuesday. We may see a front slide into the area later Tuesday PM bringing about a 5-15 degree reduction in highs for WED...along with the opportunity for some scattered storms although the cap may be too strong for much activity, especially later TUE...

The tropics are still somewhat active, there is another system that is out in the central Atlantic that may turn into a depression later today or tomorrow...should it be upgraded to a storm, her name would be Emily.

The system has a 70% chance of formation in the next 48 hours...

Speaking of the tropics, what's left of Tropical Storm Don is really next to nothing in far southern TX near Del Rio. There's more rain and heavier rain in MO right now than there is with "Don". I've seen dozens of these type of storms come ashore, but Don is the first one that I've seen that literally fell apart as it did so. The rainfall become some scattered that I think Corpus Christi had .02". There were some beefier totals around Brownsville but it was disappointing to say the least for an area of the country that really needed the rainfall. Interesting to note that the increased moisture and some cloudcover may break a streak in the Dallas area this afternoon. As of this writing they are at 94 degrees, they've had 28 straight days with highs 100+

It'll be interesting if they can get to that "magic" number today. If so then the next several days are virtual locks as the heat expands across the southern plains states. Waco has had 30 straight days of 100+. Right now they're at 93 degrees.

Have a great rest of the day...

Joe

I'm sitting here in the A/C, looking outside at the grass which is going to get mowed for the last time in a long time this afternoon. It's sure looking brown out there. We missed out on the heavy rain from Tuesday night...I got about .10" at my house while many areas about 5-10 miles north of me saw 2-2.5". So I'll probably end up getting the sprinkler out tomorrow and giving the yard at least a little drink of water. I'm not big on watering, and when the heat/humidity hit last summer at about this time the grass got fried and between me not watering and some sort of fungus that hit so many yards in the area it wasn't a pretty picture out there.

Temperatures are near 90 now and with dewpoints that are in the middle 70s+ the heat index is near 103-105 in spots...and again this will be the rule for the next 7 days or so. The latest GFS shows perhaps a weak front edging into the N MO area next weekend before falling apart and moving back to the north, essentially keeping us in the heat for the next 12+ days.

So with all that said...what exactly is a heat wave...you might be surprised that there really is now concrete definition for specific parts of the country...let's start with the definition from the Glossary Of Meteorology.

heat wave—(Also called hot wave, warm wave.) A period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and usually humid weather. To be a heat wave such a period should last at least one day, but conventionally it lasts from several days to several weeks. 

In 1900, A. T. Burrows more rigidly defined a “hot wave” as a spell of three or more days on each of which the maximum shade temperature reaches or exceeds 90°F. More realistically, the comfort criteria for any one region are dependent upon the normal conditions of that region. In the eastern United States, heat waves generally build up with southerly winds on the western flank of an anticyclone centered over the southeastern states, the air being warmed by passage over a land surface heated by the sun. See also hot wind.

Now going by that definition, every summer day in these parts would be considered a heat wave. So that definition really won't cut it for the KC area at least.

From wikipedia...here is the definition courtesy of the World Meteorological Society....


The definition recommended by the World Meteorological Organization is when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 Celsius degrees (9 Fahrenheit degrees), the normal period being 1961–1990.^[3]
I like that one a bit better because you can quantify it a bit since it connects a definitive number in relation to average...so by using this definition, and checking averages...it would need to be 98+ degrees 5+ days in a row for us to fit that criteria...but certainly a brief check of the FOX 4 Weather Almanac would show that we certainly had some decent heat waves over the past 5+ years!

Also from wikipedia comes the various meanings o various parts of the country...

In the United States, definitions also vary by region; however, a heat wave is usually defined as a period of at least two or more days of excessively hot weather.^[5] In the Northeast, a heat wave is typically defined as three consecutive days where the temperature reaches or exceeds 90 °F (32 °C), but not always as this is ties in with humidity levels to determine a heat index threshold.^[6] The same does not apply to drier climates. A heat storm is a Californian term for an extended heat wave. Heat storms occur when the temperature reaches 100 °F (38 °C) for three or more consecutive days over a wide area (tens of thousands of square miles). The National Weather Service issues heat advisories and excessive heat warnings when unusual periods of hot weather are expected.
This also has merit...a heat wave in Phoenix, considering their average high is in the 107 would have be to well above that number...however a heat wave in N Michigan where the average high in Marquette now is 77 degrees is something else...again though there is no qualifier number.

The folks at NOAA really don't have a quantitative definition. You would think they would...I google searched and found some generic stuff...then even read through a conference report where they asked that very question...here is a brief recap of one of their group reports...this is from 1996.

Click on that to make it more readable...basically they decided that further review was necessary to define what a heat wave was.

So really there isn't one quantitative definition that is widely used for the definition of a heat wave...while I like that 9+ degree above average thought...you would have to quantify the time period that it can be used...temperatures 10-15 degrees above average in April are usually a welcome thing...even into the beginning of May...perhaps something that starts on June 1st...along the lines of 10+ degrees above average for at least a set period of time would work. NOAA though does have a point...suppose the temperature is 87 but the dewpoint are closer to 75...then you have the whole heat index thing to worry and contend with. It's valid thought as well, while last mid to late July wasn't crazy hot, the dewpoint were near to above 80 giving us a heat index of close to 110 to 115 for various days...it was awful. OK so then let's run with using a Heat Index based criteria...well then that sort of eliminates the Desert SW from a lot of the criteria where a temperature of 115 and low dewpoints, as is common, actually reduces the heat index compared to the temperature!

It's a frustrating thing for me since I'm into the numbers and trying to quantify things.

Regardless, stay cool and remember all the heat safety thoughts that are out there...

Joe

As expected it's getting hotter by the hour out there right now...as temperatures are well into the 90s with some areas over on the KS side starting to flirt with 100 near the Topeka area....factoring in dewpoints of 70-75 and you get heat indices near 105....yuck and a great day to be inside with the A/C going that's for sure...also a good day to remember your heat safety rules...so far I believe 5 people have died in the KC area from heat related issues this year...something to think about...

The 1PM obs show a chaotic wind field in the region...with not a lot of wind out there. so while we''re 92 @ KCI and 94 Downtown, I wonder how much more we can go up this afternoon. The lighter winds were a factor in my temperature forecasting today. A stronger S/SW wind would allow highs to creep towards 100...regardless it's rough out there!

What you see below is a pie chart...thanks to our uber intern Kristy, I'll be showing this at various times for awhile...basically it will show a look at temperatures going back to the 1880s. In this case it's every day's high temps going back to 1888 for a period of 7/8-7/14...

The colors represent the number of time temperatures fell into a certain range. For example the slim color blue at the top represent the number of times we had highs in the 60s. The Purple color represents the number (%) of times highs were in the 70s (9%). The Orange represents the 80s (47%) the Red shows the 90s (38%) and the brown shows the 100s (6%). So basically during this time period, judging from the past 85% of the time we were in the 80s/90s. What's interesting is that there is a better chance of us having highs in the 70s as opposed to the 100s (9% vs 6%). It just shows you how tough it is to get there...my suspicion is that it does get easier to get to 100 as the next few weeks role along...climatalogically it makes sense. If you remember I showed a chart like this a couple of weeks ago showing the chance of hitting 100 as about 4%...so the numbers are increasing as we get deeper into the summer around here.

Speaking of which...look at this map below...showing the high temperatures YESTERDAY (SAT) in Oklahoma...crazy hot down there. virtually every city had highs above 105...and I believe hearing that was the first time OK saw statewide highs all above 100 in the last 15 years or so...very impressive. Today Oklahoma City is again above 100...for the 12th day in a row and the 21st time this year. I think the record is 50 for a year set back during that crazy hot summer of 1980.

Looking forward...there will be storm chances developing TUE night into WED...the GFS keeps the chance into THU as well...at this point I'll keep my chance going for WED and keep the other days dry. Whatever minor break we get in the heat will not last but a couple of days as it scorches again towards next weekend with essentially this same airmass circulating right back at us. The GFS does show the ridge retorgrading a bit towards in about 12 days (gulp) allowing for some relief...

Stay cool and drink that water...

Joe

Well there really isn't much to say about our weather...everything that I talked about this week is coming about as expected...it's slowly getting hotter out there, SE winds will turn towards the SSE tomorrow, so low to mid 90s seem assured. Monday we may go up a bit more. As a result of this a HEAT ADVISORY is in effect for the region and that probably will get upgraded. The modelling is shooting for highs near or above 100. I don't at this point buy those numbers...the NAM has been running 3-5 degrees to high on the warmest days so far this year. For all the reasons mentioned yesterday and also a lack of strong mixing (not that much wind and more of a southerly component tomorrow) I'm max out the highs around 96 I think.

So with all this heat...what a perfect day to talk about snow...there I said it...a 4 letter word that probably brings a chill up your spine, perhaps though with the forecast that's a good thing...I saw this from the NPS a few weeks ago...and while that amount of snow isn't there anymore...it's fascinating nonetheless...so much snow out there this past winter...they were still snow skiing @ the Lake Tahoe ski areas this past weekend! Take a look at some of these pictures...this again is from the NPS...

Deep and persistent snow levels at higher elevations on Mount Rainier will delay the opening of the road to Sunrise until at least July 8. Park road crews, using bulldozers and a rotary snow blower, are working daily to remove snow from the road and expect to reach the parking area at Sunrise early next week. Once access is available, additional park and Washington Conservation Corps crews will be brought into the area to shovel out buildings and activate the power and water systems.     Since July 1, 2010, a total of 907 inches of snow have fallen at Paradise. The record for the park is 1,122 of snowfall during the 1971-72 season.  Cool and wet temperatures have persisted into June, delaying snow melt in the upper elevations and slowing snow removal operations that began in March. Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) road crews have faced similar deep snow conditions on Highway 410, delaying the opening of Chinook Pass on the east side of the park. WSDOT’s projected opening for Chinook Pass is June 23 at 10:00 AM. Persistent snow conditions will also delay the opening of the White River Campground until July 1. The road to the campground is open and accessible.  Mowich Road opening operations will be delayed until snow removal at Paradise and Sunrise are completed. All other park roads and areas are open. Travelers are advised to check the park’s website prior to a visit to get updated information on road and trail conditions, services and activities. Mount Rainier National Park’s website is at: www.nps.gov/mora. For photos of current snow conditions at Sunrise, scroll down to the bottom of the page. Please check the WSDOT website, www.wsdot.wa.gov,for current updates on all highway and pass conditions in Washington State.   NPS Photo A photo of the Sunrise Visitor Center covered in snow taken June 9, 2011, compared to a similar photo of the Visitor Center from July 2010.   NPS Photo A photo of the Sunrise Visitor Center from the southwest taken on June 9, 2011, demonstrating the snow conditions compared to a similar photo taken July 2009.   NPS Photo The Sunrise bathroom building is completely covered by snow except for a small corner of the roof, as is seen in the photo taken June 9, 2011 compared with the photo from August 2009.

Did You Know? At Mount Rainier, winter snowfall is typically heaviest between the elevations of 5,000 and 8,000 feet. Paradise, at 5,420 feet, receives an average of 680 inches of snowfall (nearly 57 feet) every year, making it one of the consistently snowiest places on Earth of those where snowfall is measured.

end NPS...

Lake Mead in NV/AZ is expected to rise some 40 FEET as a result of all the snowmelt...and just to prove how low it WAS...that's still only about 56% of it's capacity.

Joe

Welcome to the Dog Days of Summer...they officially started today and linger through August 11th. It seems as if the forecast is going along those lines with no extreme heat for the week but lots of sweating heat heading this way with a boatload of 80s and 90s in the forecast for quite some time.

Before I get to the weather, which is not been easy to figure out these last couple of days...take a look at what some thunderstorms did last night in Overland Park. In addition to torrential rainfall, hail ranging from pea to quarter sized fell in parts of JOCO. There was an area though up towards 103rds and Mastin that saw even larger hail...upwards of the size of eggs...no doubt there was significant car damage in that area from some of these hail stones. My thanks to Brian Stertz for sending in these pictures of the hail generated by the storm...very impressive! The storms continuously developed along a northward moving outflow boundary that was fueled by storms well south of KC yesterday PM.  Typically these scenarios fade away with the setting sun and a stabilizing atmosphere. That happened last night, but not until about midnight. Before then the storms just kept regenerating in small areas. Where they formed they quickly became, mostly, heavy rain producers and small hail generators. Leave it to the one storm that generated a stronger updraft and created a small pocket of significantly larger hailstones though.

If you remember, the other day I alerted you to changes to the way the climate numbers were going to be portrayed. This involves the updating of what we call the 30 year means. I'm sure 30 years was picked for some reason, but I never really understood why data is limited to 30 years. We have some 100+ years of, we think, reliable data for KC. Why not use all of it...why just 30 years. Perhaps it's to portray changes that are thought to occur in a shorter "climate" period...never understood why they do it that way...but they always have. Perhaps it because equipment changes or site locations may change...the "official" KC weather site has changed almost half a dozen times over our 120+ years of records. Anyway the folks @ Pleasant Hill have come up with how these changes are going to be reflected into our numbers that we use for the monthly data...the link is here. In a nutshell...our annual averages for temperatures are going up about .5 degrees. The snowfall average will drop from 20.1 to 18.8"/year and the precipitation average will increase about 1" to 38.85".

OK onto our weather which is messy to say the least. I had a feeling that radar would be active today, and it has been, especially for N MO. Here are the doppler estimated rainfall totals for the day (thru 1PM) thus far...unfortunately the core of the heaviest rain is again up across N MO...

Some of that heavy stuff fell along the MO River watershed, so while the river continue to slowly recede from it's crest for all the stations from KC northwards, this may slow that receding a bit. By the way...I thought the KC star did a real nice article about the complexities that confound the Army Corps Of Engineers regarding the river situations...take a look here.

There is another wave that is moving across E KS now that's producing additional areas of rain and thunder. It shouldn't last for that long but will be a factor through the middle of the afternoon...then we should break out into sunshine. Temperatures will be all over the place, not surprisingly. We made it into the upper 70s, cooled to 70 now are bouncing back upwards. There are some 80-83 degree temperatures being reported on the south side as I type...and those too will bounce up then down this PM.

I don't really trust any of the model data, in terms of resolving our rainfall chances for the next 5 days. They simply will be able to generate general ideas of precipitation placement...and while the precip may exist it's location will probably be wrong by hundreds of miles in some cases. They models will do better with the upper levels so I'll be relying on that data to make a forecast.

Have a great rest of the weekend...right now I think the fireworks tonight should be OK for the Riverfest in the downtown area. This last wave coming through this afternoon should leave an area of sinking air behind it...so we should stabilize somewhat after 4-5PM or so...I think!

Joe

A very WEAK cold front has moved into the area, switching our winds more from a southerly direction, and more towards a northerly direction. this is allowing somewhat cooler air to build down through North MO and taking temperatures down a few notches off there highs over the past couple of days (95-100). We should run 3-5 degrees cooler in the metro...about 7-10 degrees cooler in N MO and really seeing little change down towards the S of KC for the rest of the afternoon. As of 1PM...KCI is @ 88 degrees and downtown is at 91 degrees. Compared to 24 hours ago...those numbers are down 1 and 2 degrees respectively. But the dewpoints are up about 3-5 degrees so it actually "feels" worse when you factor in the heat index. Speaking of temperatures check out a few of the records tied or broken yesterday...

The front is running out of steam as we speak. It should press a bit farther southwards but essentially stall and start falling apart in the southern part of the viewing area. There will be an opportunity for some very isolated storm development towards the S/SW of the downtown vicinity later this afternoon. I looked outside and there are absolutely no clouds along the frontal boundary. A look at the satellite pictures early this afternoon reveal that there is some post frontal cloud cover developing across areas north of the metro. You can see them here...a loop reveals they're lifting towards the ENE at the present time.

Temperatures north of the boundary are actually closer to 80 right now...across the IA/MO border area.

As far as weekend storm chances go...again maybe something very isolated later this PM (10% chance). Then tomorrow AM I'll be tracking storms that should develop across Western Nebraska tonight. They will then roll towards the east and increase in coverage...eventually turning towards the SE. The timing of the SE movement will determine our higher rain chances in the metro. IF they turn more SEwards earlier then our chance of storms increases during the first part of the day. IF that turn is delayed or the coverage isn't as great and they pass us by towards the NE, then I can see a scenario that we don't get action here int he KC area till later in the day/evening which would potentially impact the fireworks tomorrow night. I'm leaning towards the former solution with the potential for storms/rain to keep temperatures cooler than what I'm forecasting right now.

We should jump back into the 90-95 degree heat by MON-TUE witht eh humidity values that we're used to in this part of the country. WED and THU still look suspicious to me for the potential of MCS activity through the Plains states. Impossible at this point to figure the details out on that scenario(s)

Kristy, our new weather intern, who attends IA State did some research for me with our updated climate records going back to the 1880s...I asked here to go through the last week of (June 24th-30th) and the 1st week of July (1st-7th) and calculate the number of 60/70/80/90/100+ days that have occurred. We'd then put them into a pie chart and show that information on the air. It also was beneficial to allow us not to forecast 100 degree heat this past week. 1) statistically it's rare 2) dewpoints were going to be too high 3) the foliage was too green. Here is what she came up with...we'll start with the last week of June...

Now notice the subtle changes for the 1st week of July...

We go from 83% to 85% probabilities of having days in the 80s/90s. The past occurrences of 100+ goes from 4 to 5%...we did do some rounding so the total numbers are close to 100%.


I love that type of information...and it's fun to show.

That'll do it for the afternoon. Try and stay cool and hopefully any future storms won't affect the fireworks displays for the next several nights...

Joe