As I was looking at the new data last night...and watching radar and eventually realizing that my much hoped for rain was going to be lackluster at best I started to think about what the forecast would've been IF this was a winter scenario...let's flash forward about 6 months or so and talk about how the forecast would've evolved...

This would've started as a decent chance of snow, which then would've been upgraded to a good chance of an accumulating snow. That would've been about the time that folks would start paying closer attention to the situation. Yesterday morning DH and KR probably would've been talking about the potential for 3-6" of snow...heck based on the data yesterday I may have even upgraded it to a 4-8" snow with much higher totals off towards the SW and W of KC. TV stations would've then gone into snow mode, named the storm one thing or another, stuck reporters outside, sent them to the usual snow live shots at the road treatment depots and the grocery stores for people who would be buying the food like crazy...you know the drill right?

Then the latest data would come in before 9PM, and with the horses all out of the barn and everybody ready for a snow day and set to watch all the snow come down...as the saying goes "boom goes the dynamite." I would've been on @ 9/10 and for 2 hours and would be saying something to the effect of most of the snow would be off to the W/SW of KC and that here in the metro, we'd only get a dusting to 2" or so. Then this AM DH would be saying something to the effect that the metro would get flurries or maybe a dusting at best.

However, after all that preparation and media hype people would be mad as heck at their local forecasters because the snow failed to materialize. Despite the much reduced, and more correct forecast at the end, it would've been too late. Emails would be flying between viewers who may have watched you, or those who watched another station who may have said something else, or not reacted to the trend in the latest model data...this would not have been a good day to be at work....

Alas, and thankfully, we're not in late December or January, it's August and we're having a tough time right now getting a widespread rain across the region. This system will not do it either. The good news is that today will be a nicely below average day for temperatures as highs should struggle to get to 80 degrees thanks to all the clouds for the first part of the day, and a more easterly component to the wind. There may actually be some lower 80s across areas towards the N or NE of the metro where the sun may be a bit more prevalent today...cooler highs may be more towards the SE of KC where the clouds should linger the longest and the coolest will be SW of KC where the rain will be slightly more of an issue.


Here is a sign of the seasons moving along. Earlier this AM, parts of MN dropped into the 30s for the 1st time since mid June I think...

On the other side of the coin...yesterday Ft Smith STOPPED their consecutive streak of 100+ days at 35. Today though Waco goes for their record of 42 straight 100+ days...and I think Saturday is the day they will try to break the record which stands right now @ 42. It is getting a bit muddled though as I'm watching a strong outflow now move through OK and seems to maybe have enough punch to get close to DFW by later this AM...maybe they may get surprised today and see a break...doubtful but something intersting is going on north of the Red River.

That's it for now...if needed I'll update things later today. Next decent rain chance is on Friday but as I finish this there are a few t/showers developing to the SE of the metro...near Sedalia...

Joe



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