Rain on the way...at last...it may not be a lot for the metro but a solid area of rain, mostly light, with a few embedded areas of moderate rain is moving along and south of I-70 and moving to the east as I type...rainfall amounts should be under .50" for most of the metro from I-70 southwards, rain amounts should be less the farther north into the metro you go and for folks farther northwards the rain may not even make much of an impression which is the total opposite of what the models were suggesting yesterday and last night. I talked on the air about how the models were not going to handle the rain/storms very well...and yesterday and last night's runs did not....that's why I didn't want to go hog wild with with rainfall totals because my confidence wasn't high in terms of who would get the heaviest rainfall...

These disturbances, like the one that fired near Wichita yesterday evening, producing winds close to 80 MPH and some golf ball sized haill are tricky to figure out...after awhile the storms generate their own cold pools of rain-cooled air that play havoc with these systems maintaining their strength. The disturbances also evolve as they intensify and then fall apart so predicting  where they will be in 6 hours, let alone 12 or 18 or 24 hours is next to impossible sometimes. Now trying to figure out where these things will develop in 2-3-4-5 days is really impossible...you can get an idea but any precision to the exact placement with confidence is pretty tough.

Let's deal with what we've got out there now...here is a radar snapshot from about 8:30 showing the rain moving from the KS side eastwards...

This will be the decent rainfall that moves into the metro over the next couple of hours...Radar observations are showing a small circulation developing near the Topeka area...this is enhancing the rain in Shawnee County and hopefully some of us will get into that as well...again I think we'll get less than .50" out of this.

Areas SE of KC felt more of the effects of the storms that developed near the Wichita area (leaving some 15K without power for awhile last night)...and it's been raining for about 6 hours or so downn there...good rainfall as well..the type that will soak in nicely...

There is a small circulation showing up in Pettis C\ounty that is helping to sustain this rainfall...totals have been welcome down there...

Click on that map to expand it...and look at the scale off to the right side for doppler indicated totals...

The core of the heat has been shunted to S OK and TX again...yesterday, Little Rock (114), Ft Smith (115), Fayetteville (110) and West Plains, MO (108) all set ALL TIME Highs...that's always impressive to me...take a look at the highs yesterday in AR...had to have been, statewide one of their hottest days ever!


                                                       HIGH     LOW

NORTH LITTLE ROCK  :        111  /  87 /   0.00
LIT : LITTLE ROCK        :  114  /  85 /   0.00
HOT : HOT SPRINGS ARPT   :  108  /  82 /   0.00
FSM : FORT SMITH         :  115  /  83 /   0.27
FYV : FAYETTEVILLE       :  110  /  80 /   0.00
HRO : HARRISON           :  112  /  79 /   0.00
JBR : JONESBORO          :  107  /  79 /   0.00
ELD : EL DORADO          :  108  /  80 /   0.00
TXK : TEXARKANA          :  111  /  84 /   0.00
PBF : PINE BLUFF ARPT    :  110  /  84 /   0.00
BPK : MOUNTAIN HOME ARPT :  114  /  81 /   0.00
RUE : RUSSELLVILLE       :  115  /  83 /   0.00
MWT : MT. IDA            :  112  /  79 /   0.00
M19 : NEWPORT ARPT       :  108  /  78 /   0.00
LLQ : MONTICELLO ARPT    :  107  /  85 /   0.00
XNA : HIGHFILL           :  108  /  79 /   0.00
HKA : BLYTHEVILLE        :  104  /  78 /   0.00
AWM : WEST MEMPHIS       :  105  /  80 /   0.00
DEQ : DEQUEEN            :  111  /  75 /   0.00
:
:THE FOLLOWING STATIONS ARE NOT QUALITY CONTROLLED BY
:THE NWS.
:
ROG : ROGERS ARPT        :    M  /   M /      M
VBT : BENTONVILLE ARPT   :  108  /  79 /   0.00
SLG : SILOAM SPRINGS ARP :  109  /  79 /      M
BVX : BATESVILLE ARPT    :  111  /  79 /   0.00
FLP : FLIPPIN ARPT       :    M  /   M /   0.00
ARG : WALNUT RIDGE ARPT  :  106  /  79 /   0.00
SRC : SEARCY ARPT        :  112  /  79 /   0.00
SGT : STUTTGART ARPT     :  108  /  82 /   0.00
LRF : LITTLE ROCK AFB    :  112  /  82 /   0.00
M89 : ARKADELPHIA ARPT   :  113

A very impressive day! Meanwhile in OK, another scorcher as well...here are the mesonet highs.

Essentially 110+ from Oklahoma City SEwards...




Texas also sizzled, as Dallas hit 100+ for the 33rd straight day! Here is a look at their running streaks...

Look at what they're forecasting today...

They may get some relief later next week...we'll see.

For us at least today temperatures will be kept in check for most of the day...as a matter of fact readings may be in the 70s for the AM with the rainfall in the area before we start to go back up during the afternoon as the precip winds down and we start to thin out the clouds.

The latest surface map shows the position of the front...

Meanwhile Emily looks a bit better this AM...not really moving much at this point which isn't good for the folks in the Dominican Republic...

Still holding onto to winds of 50 MPH...FL will need to watch this storm carefully heading towards the weekend...more on this tonight @ 5//6/9/10...

That's it for today...in the hour that it's taken me to type this blog up...here is the radar from 9AM or so...

Have a great Thursday...Facebook updates as needed today.

Joe