I'll let the guys deal with the local forecast stuff however I will tell you that a cold front has moved into the area, typically we'd be concerned about storms later this afternoon, but aloft we're very warm so we're essentially capped. There may be some storms, isolated in nature, developing towards the south of the metro later this afternoon, but the chances right now seem pretty low for any widespread activity.

Instead this blog will talk about Irene which, as expected, has been slowly strengthening and organizing over the past couple of days. Also as expected the threat has shifted farther eastwards along the eastern seaboard and there is the potential the storm may just graze the outer banks of NC. There is a mandatory evacuation order in effect for a few areas in far eastern NC which are only accessible by boat/. Irene now is packing winds of 115 MPH and is considered a major hurricane. She is moving towards the NW at close to 15 mph and has developed an eye, as is typical of maturing hurricanes. Take a look at the visible satellite photos which show this rather nicely.

The island being hit is Crooked Island...the next island in the path is Long Island...in the Bahamas.

Here is the forecasted path of Irene...I more or less agree with this path however I wouldn't be surprised if the northern most part of the path is shifted even farther eastwards.

The key to how far east the storm will eventually go is a trof across the NW part of Canada

It's interesting that there has been some rather remarkable agreement over the past 12+ hours in the model data with the forecast...there are dozens of models that are looked at to try to figure things ouot...here is a look at all of them...

Notice that now there are more than a few suggesting that this storm may end up more of a fish storm, with a path out to sea...this is certainly possible and a trend that needs to be watched. That trof, and how far south it digs or doesn't will decide how close to the NE coastline the storm gets...if it digs far enough to the south it would allow the storm to come farther up the coastline before moving more NNE...here is the position that is forecasted from the NAM. The trof by then moves through the Great Lakes.

Should Irene get closer to the NE...it will be one of the more significant weather events of the year, in a year of it seems nothing but significant weather events. Remember the worst part of a hurricane in on the eastern side. Typically the western side of the hurricane, while rough, is not as bad. Also remember that typically as these things move farther up the coast, while the core will usually weaken because of cooler ocean temperatures the storms often broaden out. While the core winds decrease, the strong winds actually expand outwards.

So while the metropolises of the NE need to be very concerned about this storm...the ones that really need to be concerned are from NY up through Boston. The direction of the winds as the storm moves near the coastline may allow water to pile up from Long Island Sound into the western part of the Sound...this will create flooding issues that potentially could be very severe, in addition to the winds and heavy, flooding rainfall.

So there is a lot to ponder with this storm, and the NE part of the country is certainly not out of the woods yet. The timing of all this would be over the weekend.

Joe



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