March has certainly not been the greatest around here. We've been stuck with gray skies for quite a few days lately. MT told me that it's been almost 2 weeks since we've seen a day filled with sunshine around these parts, and it certainly feels tat way out there. Today is no exception with highs running some 15 degrees below average and, despite some brief AM sunshine, we're back to the gray again.

Here is a recap of March thus far...I estimated the high for today @ 49 degrees. We'll see if we get there. Click on that image to make it larger.

This is now our 8th straight day of below average temperaturess and for the most part they've been near double digit below. Despite this, through yesterday we were exactly average for the month. Shows you how warm it was there for about a week or so from the 16th-22nd. Let's hope that April is a better month. The latest longer rang progs shows some nice warm days in thefirst week...but another sharp cool down is expected  on Monday-Tuesday AM. the good thing is that everything is moving at a real fast pace so the chills won't be as long, assuming we don't get stuck in a gray stretch again.

We'll actually be in pretty good shape for the next few days. Tomorrow we should pop to the 60s and be in that area on on SAT. A rather impressive storm is going to get it's act together on SUN in the Plains states, fueled at the surface by an increasing temperature contrast from the Dakotas to the Southern Plains states. Take a look at the latest GFS showing the contrast developing...

Those are the 30s in blue and the 90s in the pinkish areas in TX. Now here is the surface map 12 hours later...

This storm comes through sometime MON AM...so we'll dump back intot he colder air on Monday. Before that front gets here on Sunday we may soar into the 80s around here, then on Monday we should be some 30+ cooler. The GFS is about 12 hours slower with the storm, which is possible. So IF we can slow down the storm a bit, we MAY be able to squeak out a milder start MON AM before the colder air arrives.

Usually thoughts turn to severe weather with scenarios like this...right now it's not exactly a great set-up for anything that dramatic for us...perhaps so well of to the east of the region...but the SPC folks are watching the developments in their longer range progs. Keep in mind they base those progs on the overnight data.

Meanwhile, if you love snow...about about 61 feet worth...with another month+ to go to add on to those numbers...it's out in California!

Joe

I promised you this AM that I would post the Opening Day weather over the past 10+ years out at the K here on the blog. Well my routine is that on the weekends I get home after the AM show, take a nap, wake-up, look at weather data then post a blog from the house before I head back to work in the PM. I do it this way so that you get the blog earlier in the day as opposed to waiting for me to get to work and posting it there. Problem is that I usually forget my research at the station and don't bring it home with me. So is the case today.

I'll get that information to you later this afternoon before 6PM if you want to check back.

Weatherwise, cloud, as expected are holding tough right now with few hopes of much sunshine for KC. There actually are some nice breaks off towards the NE of KC now.Temperatures are in the upper 30s. The lift though is interesting and has created an area of some light snow which is moving through parts of Eastern KS. This precip is encountering a lot of dry air aloft right now so it's being chewed away on as it moves into the area. This process will continue for awhile this afternoon but by looking at radar, I wouldn't be surprised if the moisture overwhelms the this dry air and eventually we start seeing the snow make it to the ground. It'll tend to blow around a bit and maybe create a dusting in spots.

Another potential system is due in on Tuesday. This will also bring us a potential rain to snow scenario. Again areas farther north need to watch this one carefully as there could be an accumulating snow up towards the NE/IA border region. This system should be a bit more organized than these previous systems, as it is stronger now along the NW coastline.

Though it should weaken a bit as it moves through the Plains, the strength of the system should pull in enough warm air above the surface to create a cold rain here. As the storm moves through the colder air will be brought back down and there could be a several hour window of snowfall in the metro. At this point I'm not expecting accumulations for KC proper. Again the best chance of some accums should be well north of here. It should be noted that the EURO gives us very little precip at all out of this event.

Have a great week...KU better get their act together, they're looking shell-shocked right now.

Joe



.

Some rain...some sleet, some snowflakes (large) and a lot of gray, chilly weather. That pretty much sums up this not-so-chamber of commerce weather in the region this afternoon. A weak disturbance is sliding through the region. It's really too weak to generate anything more than mixed precip showers in the area. Some of the heavier bands are producing snow rates that are heavy enough to accumulate, especially on grassy surfaces. Here is a look at the radar...as I type this there are some heavier bands of mixed precip down towards teh south of the metro...

Some accums of snow are possible in Miami/Cass/Johnson (MO) and areas just off to the SE of there.

This wave will exit the area this evening...unfortunately there will be a lot of moisture stuck in the area so any sunshine tomorrow will be limited to the PM hours I think. Overall another chilly day is expected with highs between 38-43 degrees. Monday will be between systems but at least it should be somewhat brighter with highs back into the 45-50 range.

Then there is Tuesday as another stronger wave, perhaps somewhat stronger, moves through the Midwest. The air aloft will be pretty chilly so whatever falls will certainly be capable of producing snowfall again. The issue again is that there may not be a lot of organization to the storm this far to the north. Most of the heavier precip may be farther southwards. It's still early in the game for this next storm, so it'll be something to watch for another couple of days.

After that we will be in much better shape as temperatures moderate to near 50-55 on Opening Day (THU) then warm well into the 60s and hopefully 70s heading towards next weekend.

That's about it for the day...Congratulations to Chenna and Samantha, a couple of winners of the 60th Greater KC Science Fair. I presented two awards today at the Awards ceremony!

Joe


afdf

Spring is almost "officially" here. As of this writing we're about 4+ hours away. It starts @ 6:21 CDT tonight.

As if on cue, Mother Nature has swapped one cool airmass out and replaced it with another, warmer and more moist airmass. Temperatures went up all night and by daybreak were in the middle 50s. Now we're approaching 75 degrees, a welcome change. With the warmth comes some gulf moisture. Dewpoints, which yesterday were in the 30s now are in the mid to upper 50s with strong S/SSW winds of 15-30 MPH. All going according to plan. Now the question is whether or not the increasing heat and instability can create any T/Storms. For the next 6 hours I think the chances are extremely low. While the heat is there (to a March degree) and the dewpoints are there...55+ is acceptable, there is really no trigger nearby at this point to spark convection. There is one though not far away and that is a cold front which will sneak into the region tonight. Here is the front now...up to the NW of KC...

The thing is...any storms that can fire up do have the potential of becoming severe...the SPC has parts of the region under a SLIGHT risk (sidenote: I had a humerous at times discussion with one of the leaders of the SPC FRI and SAT about the word SLIGHT. Another you make sense but to change things in the Government is nearly impossible type things) but I digress...

The main issue aloft right now, and for the next few hours while the instability is greatest is that we're CAPPED...temperatures aloft are close to +5 at 10,000. This layer of air will cool down a few degrees tonight however so it does bear watching as the front edges into N MO and NE KS.

It should stall close to or north of the I-70 corridor tomorrow AM and then retreat back to the north on MON PM as a warm front placing the metro squarely in this same airmass. As I mentioned yesterday there is a bust potential to the highs tomorrow is this doesn't work out as I expect it to. There also maybe somewhat of a 10-15+ degree spread from N>S tomorrow PM depending on the progress of the front's retreat.

Then we set up a potential risk of severe weather on Tuesday as a stronger storm will organize and eventually drag a cold front through the region.

The SPC is watching this day, however as with most March set-ups there are always questions on instability, clouds timiing etc...

These are the probabilities of severe weather, as a SLIGHT risk has been put out for our region...

Here is the NAM forecast for 7PM Tuesday evening...showing an impressive Low across E NE, with a dry line/warm front/occluded front called a TRIPLE POINT.

Near and just to the E/ESE of here is where one needs to watch for severe weather. During certain situations the atmosphere can be very volatile, especially later into the spring season.

Colder weather will follow this storm later in the week, especially THU through SAT. Need to watch that because there should be some sort of wave moving out through the Rockies sometime on FRI.

Have a great week...I'll visit with you again later in the week.

Joe

Well last weekend I was predicting 76 for today's highs. It turns out I underestimated the potential by a few degrees. We've made it up to 79 (so far @ KCI) and there is the potential for another 1-2 degree pop in the next hour. The record is 82. We shouldn't get there, but despite the gusty winds, it's been a great St Patrick's Day.

DH, MT and I all participated in the HUGE parade in down Broadway in KCMO this afternoon. That was probably the biggest crowd I've seen for one of these parades in many a year. It was packed. A lot of waving to to folks 20+ deep in the crowd. Very impressive and thanks for all the screams if you were down there. We're wind-blown but all had a great time.

The weather is changing over the next 6 hours as a cold front moves through the region. Here is the 3PM map showing the front not too far away now. This will drop our temperatures some 20-30 degrees tomorrow.

The air behind this front is seasonably cool. The average high for this time of the year is 55. So we'll be closer to that for the next couple of days before temperatures warm up again on Sunday.

This front will get down to our south and stall. The moisture will gradually be on the increase to the south of KC tomorrow...here is the NAM dewpoints forecast for the country. You can see the thicker moisture pooling to the south of KC...

Notice that by Sunday that moisture returns northwards...

As this transition occurs, rain will break out through the plains states on Saturday. The timing looks to be more towards SAT PM as opposed to SAT AM...but SAT will be a pretty gray and cool day with highs in the 40s to lower 50s...again here is the NAM portrayal...

The GFS has this rain a bit farther northwards while the EURO has the rain around here and then lingers the chances through SUN AM...

By SUN PM the cold front of today will be retreating northwards as a warm front and the warmer air will spread back into the region to finish the weekend. So depending on the amount of sunshine we get, there is potential of highs warming well through the 60s, if not warmer, to finish the weekend.

Another storm and cold front will sweep into the area sometime TUE...this will again send our temperatures back down through the middle of the week. Overall, very typical March weather around these parts with lots of ups and downs...not snow showing up though. As now I'm finally wondering if that may be the end of the snow season around here. KCI is now up to almost 37"

Have a great TGIF...one of my Sweet 16 teams is already gone (Louisville) and KY is on the ropes.

Joe

10 PM Forecast

Joe

This is what I showed @ 5PM...it IS subject to revision...still don't expect snow to be an issue till the wee hours of tomorrow morning...but it could be a big slushy headache for the AM rush...and somebody in our viewing area (highest chance to the S/SE of the metro) may end up with 4-8" of a heavy wet snow...

Joe

Well we haven't really had to contend with snow in a couple of weeks around here...and Mother Nature apparently figured that was enough. So as a result on a day that we Sprung Forward with our clocks, we'll turn back the calendar a bit for the snow scenarios to come back into the region and this one is going to be a toughie to figure out in terms of the amounts and locations. I'm pretty convinced at this point that it's going to snow, and there will be a rather significant period of time that we can get a wintry mix going as well.

Our storm is out in the Western Plains now and is on the move. It will be a fast mover, caught in the flow and as a result it'll hit fast and be gone by tomorrow AM sometime. The atmosphere closest to the ground is pretty chilly now with temperatures under performing expectations somewhat today and readings now are only in the lower 40s. The air at the surface is pretty dry as well with dewpoints int he 20s and NE surface winds continuing to feed in the dry air. All this will have to be overcome at some point for us to get something significant which is doable as the storm kicks out closer to us tonight and the atmosphere, overall, gets more saturated.

As that process occurs the lower 5000' will cool down. This was explained last night on the blog and on the news and will get explained tonight at 5PM as well with a special animation. This process though could take awhile to happen and we may still be waiting for some significant flakes for quite some time tonight. There is also the possibility that there will be too much dry air for anything really meaningful to happen. The latest RUC isn't that impressive really through midnight or so. While there is some light precip going here...the bulk to to our SW and looks to pass to the south of the metro but a sizable margin. Another short-termm model however, the HRRR is more robust with the precip along the I-70 corridor.

The NAM gives us some impressive numbers, well in the 4-8" range, and shows the characteristic mesoscale banding features that will make totals vary widely from one county to another across the region. This scenario, should it pan out will be next to impossible to figure out until the snow actually unfolds, so the later shows will be tough to forecast for. Here is the NAM snowfall forecast...

Now the GFS forecast

Notice how the NAM picks out the contrasting snow bands.

The NWS in Pleasant Hill has issued a Winter Weather Advisory as a first step in what could be an accumulating heavy wet snow that would impact the AM rush. Perhaps harder in parts of the metro compared to other parts...the counties affected are highlight in blue.

At this point, my forecast is for 2"+ across a wide area near and around KC. I'll attempt to get more refined and perhaps try and forecast where one of these "bands" of potentially heavier snow will fall. Again this is going to be a very tough forecast for myself as well as my colleagues so there will be a bust potential (as there always is, but especially with this system).

After this system rapidly leaves us tomorrow AM, we should warm into the 50s on TUE...60s on WED and well into the 70s on THU for St Pats Day! Somewhat cooler weather is expected next weekend...but perhaps still above average.

That's it for now...have a great week.

Joe

A Lot of gray out there today...and while I remain hopeful we'll see some sunshine before the day is done...it will be very limited at best I believe. With a lack of sunshine and NW winds of 15-25 mph ushering in chilly air from Nebraska, it's going to be tough to warm up at all. As expected temperatures last night never really dropped, down to 34 and now as of this writing we're at 35 degrees with little hope of getting much above 40. Just one of those drab, cold days that March is known for around these parts.

The storm fopr us did about what I expected it to do. Close to 1/2" of rain was reported. We never really had any thunder though. Here are some of the rain totals, first from KC south and then from KC north...

Now the north side...

From a snow standpoint, St Joe reported .3"...although some spotters reported about doubled that on the grassy surfaces.

On the subject of snowfall...the area that got the most from yesterday's storm appears to be out in western KS...where it's been very dry this winter. Take a look at this map...

Right now roughly 41% of the country is covered in snow, compared to last month's 58% for the 9th day of the month. Last year on this date, roughly 35% of the country was under a blanket of snow cover.


Yesterday's storm also produced some severe weather down south. Close to 50 reports, including 6 tornado touchdowns were reported...here is a map.

Already there have been two reports today of tornados...

Weather thoughts for the next several days have not changed. Friday looks to be the warmest with highs in the 60s, followed by a return back to seasonable weather over the weekend. Also there will be another storm heading this way by later Sunday. That may give us some rain Sunday Night or early Monday. Overall the next 5-7 days from a temperature standpoint, really doesn't look to bad.

Don't forget to set your clocks FORWARD one hour this weekend. Daylight Saving Time begins. So the sun will roughly come up at 7:30 on Sunday and set close to 7:20 Sunday evening, so you're getting an extra hour of daylight in the evening starting Sunday. This will continue till the 1st weekend of November I believe.


Joe

Good Morning...

Thought I'd get this out earlier today since the afternoon will be a busy one I'm sure.

Rain is now overspreading the metro area as expected. DH earlier talked about a couple of wet snowflakes mixed in at the onset of the rainfall. Some of that is happening here, but I wouldn't be surprised if that happened.

Radar is showing some healthy returns on the southside, however that's probably a combination of rain and snowflakes being detected. We call it bright banding and will lead to higher reflectivities showing up. Here is an explanation...look @ item #23.

Meanwhile here is what it looks like...

A look at the sounding data this AM shows that while the atmosphere is above freezing in the lowest 4000'+ feet or so, there is also dry air through the lower part of the atmosphere.. When rain falls through that layer, it evaporates for awhile robbing the air of heat and cooling it down. We call it evaporational cooling. This can result ice pellets and snowflakes reaching the ground. Because while it may be snowing aloft, most is melting in the lower 5000' of the atmosphere.

This rain will be withh us at various times today. It may stop every so often, then pick back up again. That combined with an east wind at the surface, makes it tough to warm up. 40 or so may be as good as we cvan get today. Just a raw, damp, windy day.

At least the serious snow is staying away...take a look out west...and look for the little stars between the temperatures in RED and the dewpoints in GREEN...most of the snow (reports in blue) is out through the western plains and the Rockies (for now) while the rain (reports in green) is from Olathe southwards as of this writing.

RUC data shows a decrease in the intensity of the rainfall during the PM hours...we should get anywhere from .25" to .75" of rain. Any thunder may add a bit to those numbers. The highest risk of severe weather will be well to the south of the region.

The storm will wrap up and move away from the region tomorrow AM...in it's wake the cold air in NE will wrap in behind the storm and keep temperatures tomorrow near 40 with NW winds of 16-30 MPH...so a blustery WED ahead. after that the weather will be much improved with highs near 50 THU and in the 60s FRI.



Have a great Tuesday!

Joe

Another day another storm...

Not sure if it is sun spots or what...but again, right @ 1:12 there were "issues" with our friends @ CBS. Random switches between games, green screens, sudden commercials...about the same time as yesterday's debacle. Weird...

Our next storm is now about to come onshore across the Pacific Northwest. Right now it's really a bunch of jetstream energy crashing ashore. You can sort of see the storm spinning off the coast of WA/OR .

This storm will move through NV and intensify across the northern sections of NM and then curl right up towards the KC area and pass close by. As this process happens aloft a surface storm will get it's act together and also pass close to KC on Tuesday. This is a good set-up, especially for this time of the year for more decent coverage rainfall that should be in the .50-1.0" territory for areas that get some thunder out of this...also the potential for more small hail will be around as well.

The surface storms track will determine how warm we can get on TUE...there is potential IF the track is towards the NW of KC for us to surge into the 50s, should the surface storm go more towards the Butler>Lake of the Ozarks area...highs will be in the lower 40s and should the track be inbetween (which is most likely) highs will vary from near 40 NW MO to the 50s in the Lakes area.

The data tonight should be more revealing as the storm itself is about to come ashore.

The snow with this storm should be to the NW of KC, and while there may be a few flakes in a transition that would be brief sometime early TUE AM for a couple of hours...at this point no accums are expected here. However for areas farther NW, up into N IA through Omaha to Lincoln and perhaps NC KS, there will be an opportunity for some significant snowfall. A variety of winter weather headlines are up for the Plains states...take a look through KS...heads up if you're traveling out to western KS along I-70...

It's well in the 50s there now....you got to love the month of March.

There will be a brief shot of cold air behind this storm for WED into THU AM before we start to moderate nicely for the end of the week.

So yesterday I posted some information regarding the meteorological winter for KC...here is some information for a bunch of other Midwest and Great Lake cities...as well as snowfall information.

Alpena MI
December: 23.5º (-0.5º)...22.9" (+3.3")
January: 14.3º (-3.5º)...25.9" (+4.1")
February: 20.8º (+1.8º)...12.6" (-3.9")
DJF: 19.5º (-0.7º)...61.4" (+3.5")

Chicago IL
December: 22.5º (-4.9º)...16.2" (+7.5")
January: 20.6º (-1.4º)...11.1" (-0.2")
February: 26.2º (-0.8º)...29.0" (+20.7")
DJF: 23.1º (-2.4º)...56.3" (+28.0")

Cleveland OH
December: 26.4º (-4.7º)...12.7" (-0.4")
January: 23.1º (-2.6º)...21.5" (+4.4")
February: 29.0º (+0.6º)...23.3" (+9.2")
DJF: 26.2º (-2.2º)...57.5" (+13.2")

Columbus OH
December: 26.5º (-7.0º)...7.3" (+2.3")
January: 24.5º (-3.8º)...13.3" (+2.8")
February: 32.6º (+0.6º)...4.8" (-1.4")
DJF: 27.9º (-3.4º)...25.4" (+3.7")

Des Moines IA
December: 23.5º (-1.4º)...9.7" (+2.0")
January: 18.6º (-1.8º)...12.8" (+4.0")
February: 26.7º (+0.1º)...10.3" (+2.1")
DJF: 22.9º (-1.0º)...32.8" (+8.1")

Detroit MI
December: 25.6º (-4.0º)...9.3" (-1.8")
January: 21.8º (-2.7º)...17.9" (+6.0")
February: 24.8º (-2.5º)...31.7" (22.4")
DJF: 24.1º (-3.1º)...58.9" (+26.6")

Dubuque IA
December: 15.8º (-6.7º)...27.5" (+17.0")
January: 15.7º (-1.3º)...11.3" (+0.7")
February: 21.2º (-1.9º)...18.4" (+9.7")
DJF: 17.6º (-3.3º)...57.2" (+27.4")

Duluth MN
December: 12.8º (-1.2º)...18.1" (+3.2")
January: 7.1º (-1.3º)...18.5" (-1.1")
February: 14.5º (-0.3º)...3.2" (-8.2")
DJF: 11.5º (-0.9º)...39.8" (-6.1")

Grand Rapids MI
December: 27.4º (-0.2º)...11.4" (-7.4")
January: 21.4º (-1.0º)...21.2" (+0.1")
February: 25.6º (+0.6º)...38.2" (+26.0")
DJF: 24.8º (-0.2º)...70.8" (+18.7")

Green Bay WI
December: 20.1º (-1.1º)...22.2" (+9.6")
January: 13.9º (-1.7º)...19.1" (+5.2")
February: 19.9º (-0.6º)...17.8" (+9.1")
DJF: 18.0º (-1.1º)...59.1" (+23.9")

Indianapolis IN
December: 25.4º (-6.2º)...16.6" (+10.2")
January: 23.8º (-2.7º)...11.8" (+2.5")
February: 33.4º (+2.2º)...7.5" (+1.4")
DJF: 27.5º (-2.2º)...35.9" (+14.1")

Kansas City MO
December: 29.3º (-2.0º)...2.9" (-1.4")
January: 22.8º (-1.4º)...17.3" (+11.5")
February: 29.5º (-3.5º)...16.2" (+11.2")
DJF: 27.2º (-2.3º)...36.4" (+21.3")

La Crosse WI
December: 16.7º (-5.1º)...32.3" (+22.7")
January: 14.1º (-1.8º)...11.3" (-1.6")
February: 20.2º (-2.4º)...10.8" (+2.8")
DJF: 16.9º (-3.1º)...54.4" (+23.9")

Louisville KY
December: 30.8º (-6.8º)...6.2" (+4.2")
January: 30.8º (-2.2º)...10.0" (+4.9")
February: 40.9º (+3.3º)...1.1" (-3.4")
DJF: 34.2º (-1.9º)...17.3" (+5.6")

Marquette MI
December: 19.0º (+1.0º)...57.7" (+19.2")
January: 11.7º (-0.7º)...47.4" (+4.9")
February: 16.9º (+1.2º)...13.7" (-15.5")
DJF: 15.9º (+0.5º)...118.8" (+8.6")

Milwaukee WI
December: 24.7º (-1.5º)...8.3" (-3.4")
January: 20.6º (-0.1º)...19.0" (+3.8")
February: 25.2º (-0.2º)...29.6" (+18.3")
DJF: 23.5º (-0.6º)...56.9" (+18.7")

Minneapolis/St. Paul MN
December: 16.4º (-2.3º)...33.6" (+23.6")
January: 12.0º (-1.1º)...17.0" (+3.5")
February: 18.7º (-1.4º)...16.1" (+7.9")
DJF: 15.7º (-1.6º)...66.7" (+35.0")

Paducah KY
December: 32.0º (-4.9º)...5.6" (+4.1")
January: 31.5º (-1.4º)...4.3" (+0.4")
February: 39.3º (+1.2º)...9.0" (+5.7")
DJF: 34.3º (-1.7º)...18.9" (+10.2")

Peoria IL
December: 23.3º (-4.5º)...19.2" (+12.6")
January: 20.9º (-1.6º)...12.4" (+4.6")
February: 28.4º (+0.2º)...20.9" (+15.3")
DJF: 24.2º (-2.0º)...52.5" (+32.5")

St. Louis MO
December: 30.3º (-3.6º)...7.9" (+3.0")
January: 27.7º (-1.9º)...14.7" (+7.3")
February: 36.6º (+1.2º)...6.4" (+1.6")
DJF: 31.5º (-1.4º)...29.0" (+11.9")

South Bend IN
December: 24.7º (-4.0º)...23.6" (+4.4")
January: 21.2º (-2.2º)...53.8" (+30.6")
February: 25.6º (-1.7º)...25.5" (+10.0")
DJF: 23.8º (-2.6º)...102.9" (+45.0")

Springfield MO
December: 32.4º (-3.3º)...0.9" (-3.1")
January: 29.8º (-1.9º)...3.0" (-3.6")
February: 34.3º (-2.8º)...14.9" (+10.5")
DJF: 32.2º (-2.7º)...18.8" (+3.8")
Joe



asdff

Winter is over!!!! OK not really, at least according to the calendar. Spring doesn't start for another couple of weeks or so, but from a meteorological standpoint we look at the seasons a little differently. For statistical simplicity we look at the seasons in 3 full month intervals. So for example, Winter is DEC/JAN/FEB. Spring is MAR/APR/MAY, Summer is JUN/JUL/AUG and Fall is SEP/OCT/NOV. It's kind of strange but a heck of a lot easier to do calculations.

So let's talk about the winter that was...the fine folks from Pleasant Hill, MO have put together a winter recap...here are some of the maps...

First showing the temperatures...notice all the below average lows throughout the winter season. For the season overall, low temperatures were some 3.3 below average while highs were 3 degrees below average, so when calculated and rounded off the season was 3.2 degrees below average. Last winter was some 3.9 degrees below average...so it wasn't as cold this winter as last...but still cold enough!

From a precip standpoint...it was slightly drier than average by (.07") but was VERY snowy with 36.3" (some 21" above the average of 15" from DJF. This placed the winter season as the second snowiest in KC weather history. Here is the complete rundown.


Nationally, it was colder than average for a good part of the country...take a look at the last 3 months...

From a precipitation standpoint, rain and melted snow...it was dry for most of the southern tier of states. With VERY dry conditions through the OK Panhandle, western TX, the Big Bend area and southern NM and AZ. The wettest area was the upper midwest and parts of the western states.

Now considering how poorly our winter forecast was @ FOX 4, yes I remember by the way. Since we don't forecast nationally, I though we'd look and see the verification of the national winter forecasts issued back in late October for the DEC-FEB time span.

First from a temperature standpoint...

Now from a precipitation standpoint...

The temperature forecast was just plain bad for most of the country except for a small part of the US/Canadian border area and parts of the southern Rockies.

The precipitation forecast was considerably better for the Southern US and exceptional for the western part of TX and parts of the SW. The OH Valley forecast wasn't that good in terms of the expectation of above average precipitation.

So compared to the winter last year...lets see how the maps line up...from a temperature standpoint...

And now from a precipitation standpoint.

Precip wise, pretty dramatic reversal for the Southern tier of the country (odds weigh heavily for the La Nina enhanced weather pattern this past winter for the big contribution here).

Our sensible weather has another storm heading this way MON-WED...temperatures should moderate Monday with clouds with readings near 50 or so. then we're setting up for a chilly rain on Tuesday with highs back into the mid 40s or so. Later next week looks great with a run towards 65 or even 70(?) possible on Friday with no major dumps of cold air from Canada expected for the next 10 days.

joe