2/27/2011

Well it tried to get close to here...but the warm front has just about stalled now some 75-100 miles south of the metro. Warmer air is flooding into the southern plains and reaches into S KS and S MO. It's 70 in Joplin now and 64 in Chanute...59 In Clinton, MO and 58 in Sedalia, while Whiteman AFB less than a county to the west is 43 degrees.

The front has not made much progress towards us and now the winds are switching back to the NE and that will enhance the cold air seeping at the surface into the area. While it's cold here at the surface, one look at the fascinating sounding data from Topeka this AM reveals that IF one were to go up in the atmosphere some 5000' or the equivalent of 4 or so Empire State Buildings...we'd find temperatures closer to 55 degrees on the top floor! Take a look at the sounding...the balloon, which goes up twice per day sends back temperature/wind/dewpoint information on it's journey into the sky before exploding. This sounding reveals how warm it is just above the surface. Also it shows, by looking at the temperature/dewpoint trace being on top of each other, a saturated atmosphere from the surface to about 3800'. The peak of the warmest air above that is at 4700 feet with temperatures near 55 degrees! Fascinating...click on this image to make it larger.

Anyway one can dream right.

Our weather, while foggy now with some light mist will be getting worse over the next 8 hours or so as t/storms are starting to get together across the southern plains...and are racing towards the NE. They should arrive before the evening is done with the potential for some decent rainfall. That chance combined with the melting snow and the saturated soils has resulted in a Flood Watch being issued for the metro and surrounding areas for tonight.

Here is a snapshot from the regional radar at around 12:30 showing the developing area of rainfall across SC KS...

This area of rain will move parallel to the I-35 corridor and move into the region later today. The SPC seems rather gung ho on the potential of at least some marginal severe hail from this as it moves through...we'll see about that. While it's cold here on the ground the storms would be fueled by the warmth and moisture aloft, combined with air that will be spreading out aloft as well later today. This will result in stronger updrafts..Interesting to see they're placing our hail chances as high as some of the stronger storms in the MS River Valley.

Meanwhile check out the western sections of TX where the storm has generated strong surface winds of near or more than 50 MPH...this has resulted in the SW part of the state in creating a dry downslopewind off the mountains of SW TX, allowing the air to heat up and dry out. The dewpoint in Wink, TX is 0 degrees and combined with a temperature of 81 means the humidity is 5%! This is the driest air in the country now!

OK so now that that is covered what about the winter precip chances. Well they start to go up after midnight tonight through 4AM tomorrow. As the storm pulls towards the southeast of here, it'll drag down the colder air aloft to allow the atmosphere to create snow. Now it can't because it's so warm up there, but by about 3-5AM near KCI it will be cold enough for that to happen and that transition (sleet then snow) will sweep towards the SE as the storm pulls away rather rapidly after daybreak. The window for snow is small, based on the quick ejection of the storm, but a dusting to 2" is not out of the question from the metro northwards and areas up towards NC MO have a good chance of seeing a wintry mix transition to some heavier snow a few hours before us. That could allow a quick 2-5" accumulate towards the NE of the metro. I'll try and create some snowfall maps for the 5:30 news (after the race).

The quick moving storm will pull the moisture away tomorrow AM and we should be mostly sunny in the PM allowing temperatures to recover into the upper 30s and melt away the wet snow that may fall here before daybreak. The rest of the week looks good with highs in the 50s (Wednesday may be a bit cooler though). Next system is due in later FRI into SAT AM with another rain/snow scenario possible.


Big blog with a lot of weather!

Joe

A Crazy 2 days

Our weather over the next several days will certainly be a big subject of conversation. Starting this AM, there was a mess on the roads with dozens of accidents. This was caused by just a little freezing mist/drizzle that slowly developed in the saturated airmass that continues to grip the region and will do so for awhile. Combined with temperatures 20-25 degrees...it created slick and iffy driving conditions on all roads in the area, from bridges and overpasses to regular roads. A hat-tip this AM to our FOX 4 Morning Show Facebook fans for all the real-time road information that I used this morning...

We'll get to our weekend weather in a few minutes. MT was kind enough yesterday to put together a couple of winter weather graphics to show on the air. I thought I'd share them with you...this information was culled from a nice write-up from the NWS in Pleasant Hill that's available here.

Anyway, as I've stated for a couple of weeks, we're not done yet with winter and I still believe that as another strong storm will threaten the region later tomorrow and Monday.

That storm now is located in the SW. It's brought heavy rain to parts of central and southern CA and also the potential for snow near Los Angeles today. The NWS there has issued a variety of winter weather warnings for that part of the country.

Also notice how those warnings extend farther eastwards to AZ...

Several inches to 2 feet of snow is possible in these mountain areas...

This storm shows up nicely on the satellite pictures this afternoon.

The storm will become rather intense as it moves from the SW through the Southern Rockies and then towards the I-44 corridor. It's actually a rather good track for a significant snowstorm here. There is an issue though for our area to get that. Aloft we're going to be flooded by warm air...not a little warm air...a lot of warm air. Temperatures at 5000' will be in the 50s, and that warm air will work down towards the surface during the day tomorrow. With the snowmaking part of the atmosphere well back towards NE and central KS, it'll take awhile for us to get into that part of the storm. On the surface, the warmest air wll be south of here as a warm front will struggle to move through the area and in reality, may never make it. Take a look at the surface map tomorrow @ 6PM...

This storm will be very energetic, and south of here there will be a risk of severe weather in the more unstable air to the south of KC...these storms will then take off towards the NE...The SPC has put this area under a SLIGHT to MODERATE risk of severe weather...

A concern here would be if some storms can fire then go north of the warm front (we call it becoming elevated) these storms would then have the opportunity to create some marginal severe hail here (Quarter size or larger) Something to watch in the later PM tomorrow.

Then on Monday as the storm strengthens and moves east of here, it will tug in the colder part of the atmosphere that will be to the west/NW of here tomorrow. This may then convert the leftovers to some snow. Still iffy at this point though for accumulations.

The rest of the week looks OK with highs in the 40s and 50s with TUE and THU looking milder.

Joe

Our rain/sleet storm has started with many areas reporting sleet now after a period of rain...and now that the sleet has started we'll be fighting this for quite some time. Eventually during the afternoon a transition to snow will occur. For some, it'll happen earlier, for others not till later this PM and for areas farther SE of KC, may not happen at all.

The latest model data is supporting a wet system regardless. With liquid amounts equivalent to close to 1 to almost 2" on the S/SE side of the metro.

We should start to see than transition to snow, from north to south between 3-6PM...the sleet should fall pretty hard and accumulate and then it should be topped be a couple+ hours of heavy snowfall. Total accums should range from little to none towards the SE (Sedalia to Clinton to Butler to Paola) to 1-4" from S through North across the metro up towards KCI....to perhaps 4-8" along the 36 Highway corridor region. Some locations will alternate along the I-70 corridor through 3PM or so with sleet and rain.

Temperatures will go nowhere today, and may actually drop off a few degrees. KCI now is at 32 (9AM) while Olathe is at 36 and even Olathe is reporting decent sleet right now. Some rumbles of thunder were reported earlier, particularly down towards the south of KC.

There are some tricks up the sleeve of this storm system I think, which is not surprising when a region lies on the edge of heavy rain/sleet and snow. The area that may get surprised, perhaps, with some extra snow would be actually on the SE side of the metro, even closer to the 850 mb low that will be moving through the region.

There should be a quick cutoff to the precip from KC southwards sometime this evening. So the window for the heavy snow aspect of the storm for KC is relatively short. Should we switch over a bit quicker, lets say it's snowing hard sometime before 3PM, then accums will be higher, as some areas may see a period of 1"+ snowfall rates per hour should things fall together in the right way.

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from essentially the Metro northwards to almost the IA border. A few counties in the far NW part of the state are under a Winter Weather Advisory.

Cold NNE winds of 15 to 25 MPH will contribute to the nastiness of the day, especially as the afternoon goes along,

Overall not pretty and very wintry...

Joe

So how big a change is heading this way...take a look!

Those 30s will be here between 8-10 pm tonight as the front moves in a couple of hours before then. This front may be able to generate some showers with maybe a rumble of thunder in the area as it moves through. I'm not expecting a lot of rain out of this, and whatever does form will be flying at close to 40 MPH to the NE so the amounts will not be heavy.The front as of 1PM was between Lincoln NE and Beatrice, NE.

Aside from that all thoughts from yesterday's blog holds true. Colder tomorrow then some moderation TUE/WED followed by the next storm system THU into THU night...that one will need to be watched for some sort of wintry precipitation. Far too early to get into the details on that though from 5 days away. The GFS definitely has something cooking...while the latest EURO has a cold rain changing to some snow on the tail end...also the potential of some ice is showing up on both models as well. Not so much via the Canadian Model in terms of storm potential. So something to watch for the next several days.

Back to today. The record is 69 (1996). As of 1PM we're at 66. Yesterday I was hoping for some rather large breaks in the clouds by now. So far that's not happening. I noticed on the sounding this AM the the atmosphere was pretty juicy up through 6-7000 feet or so. The models are forecasting that layer to be drying out today, but even above that there is a lot of cloud cover streaming this way. So we'll see if we can get there or not. This AM I talked about the forecast this way...clouds and we're 65-70...Enough sun and we're 70-75. We may yet pop up there, but odds favor us to be closer to 70 as opposed to 75. There is also a bunch of wind out there...with gust to near 40 being reported.

Don't be surprised if we do get some drops of rain, that the rain brings down some dust from the SW plains area through TX...a lot wind goes all the way down there as well. So there may be a few more dirty cars tomorrow. Our temperatures are going to drop about 30 degrees in about 2-3 hours when the front comes through...



Joe

This is going to be a busy weekend tracking the weather. Today is turning into a hum-drum weather day. Just a lot of clouds with a few light showers showing up on radar now. Really not much is expected around the heart of KC for the rest of the day. Temperatures now are in the upper 40s and we'll rise another 1-3 degrees this afternoon. Here is the latest weather map...showing the warm front still south of here...due in later tonight. CLICK ON ALL THE IMAGES TO MAKE THEM LARGER!

As this warm front moves closer tonight, and as winds aloft continue to overrun that front from a south to north direction, some extra shower activity, and perhaps a rumble of thunder is not out of the question from our area northwards...it would not last for all that long. Then the warm front will surge on through and I expect temperatures tonight to actually start to rise towards the wee hours of tomorrow AM. It's possible we may be 55-60 near daybreak tomorrow with the warmer air surging our way.

Tomorrow, despite the cloud cover in the AM, enough breaks in the clouds are expected to allow temperatures to once again soar to the 70-75 range. The record tomorrow is 69 set back in 1996. Very breakable and potentially our 3rd record high this winter. Isn't that strange?

A cold front will then plow through the region tomorrow early evening, crashing our temperatures through tomorrow night into MON AM almost 50 degrees, and when you factor in the wind chill factor MON AM, it'll FEEL some 60 degrees colder!!!!!

This whole weather change is coming about because of a strong storm over the western part of the country. This storm will evolve and intensify at the surface tomorrow in the mid section of the country. In the upper Midwest, where the colder air will be pulled down from Canada, a pretty significant snowstorm is expected will all sorts of Winter Weather headlines being raised up there.

The pinks represent Winter Storm WARNINGS while the blue colors represent Winter Storm Watches. You can get an idea that the I-90 corridor is under the gun.

Here is what the storm looks like now...

Here is the surface map for tomorrow @ Noon...

For the week...it looks like we'll briefly dip into the cold air on Monday...moderate TUE/WED, then dip back into it THU/SAT AM before we moderate again. The "real" cold air may not arrive till FRI or next weekend and then there is the question of whether or not .we get a small chunk of cold that lasts for a day or so or whether we get a true dump of cold air.

Here is an interesting map off the GFS for NEXT Saturday night, showing the surface temperatures, relative to average...notice where the coldest air, relative to average is located, in relation to the rest of the world!

Joe

The warmer winds are a'blowing today as temperatures are now up into the 50s for many areas and some may sneak in a 60 before the afternoon is done as the snow is continuing to melt away as I type this. The noon satellite picture is interesting in that there is a real lack of cloud cover out there...so the snowfield is very evident this afternoon. Notice the "doughnut hole" look to the area around KC as the roads/streets etc are now void of snow...

Aloft, the warm air is flooding into the region this afternoon. Winds are out of the SW @ 10-15...so far no gusts, so that's not helping our mixing potential...take a look at the ~5000' temperature map in degrees C.

At Topeka this AM, the sounding reveals temperatures at that level of about 47 degrees F. With 55 degree air poised to the west and overspreading the area thanks to West winds at that level of close to 35 MPH. It's a shame that the snow on the ground is holding us back some, otherwise we'd be talking about record highs today in the lower 70s or so.

No real changes are needed to the forecast. There is a developing cold front in the N Plains states, also a lot of wind as well. You can see the cooler air rushing into ND and MT now. Not dramatic, but you can see the difference in airmasses from NE to ND...

This developing front will zip through here tonight and drop our highs back into the 45-50 range for tomorrow and with clouds streaming in on TUE, we'll stay there again.

I'm expecting a return of the warmer air beginning later Tuesday, the issue for the forecast through THU will be the potential of lower clouds. There may also be a patch or two of sprinkles/drizzle TUE or WED. Very little precip is expected in terms of amounts. The GFS is showing the moisture rather well. The darker green shades on this meteogram, show the thickest moisture. Also there will be some upper level moisture in the form of cirrus clouds. This can make it somewhat harder to burn of the low level cloud cover. Take a look at it...

The lower level moisture looks thickest TUE PM, then again WED late into THU AM. I'm still forecasting temperatures to be in the 65-68 range on THU, the moisture, I'm hoping will be scoured out by the strong winds/mixing that should erode the lower clouds. Also we may start THU AM well up into the 40s so THU could be a day the the mercury really jumps in the afternoon.

Both models are bring the next front through FRI AM...this will force me to drop the highs on FRI back down on this evenings shows, probably into the 40s. So that will be a major revision.

Concerning next weekend...there are still major questions with the thickness of the cold airmass pushing our way. It may be pretty shallow which would reduce our snow chances but increase our wintery mix chances should anything fall from the sky. Regardless continued signals of a chillier weekend and then a colder finish to the month that may be story as well.

I think March may be pretty wild around these parts, which is not unusual for that month.

Have a great week.

Joe
















af

2/12/2011

It's been talked about for a week now and sure enough the warm-up has arrived in earnest and should stick around for about a week or so. This warm-up will be dramatic. We got a taste of it yesterday as highs rose to around 40 degrees. today highs are approaching 50 and tomorrow highs should approach 60 degrees. The snow on the ground, which ranges from 2-18" around the region (Kearney-Green Ridge) will quickly melt away over the next several days. The snowfield in the region is still quite extensive. Too bad to because it's knocking about 5-10 degrees off the potential highs.

Here is a look at this afternoons visible satellite photo...showing mostly snow, with some higher cirrus clouds moving through the plains states...

Taking a look from KC northwards...the amount of white on the ground is pretty impressive...

The air aloft is nice and warm for mid February...and aside from a setback on MON-TUE where highs should drop to the 40s, the warmth will be strengthened aloft during the middle and later part of this week. Here is the GFS forecast for the airmass @ 5000' for WED AM...the yellows/reds obviously represent the warmer temperatures...

Now the same idea for THU...

This would be the day that highs could get out of hand. The GFS forecasts 5000' temperatures of 14C or about 58F. The EURO is about 2C/4F cooler but with warm air flooding our way. The winds aloft would also be strong so the atmosphere will be well mixed, so barring any substantial clouds, we'd be off to the races with highs approaching 70. I was aggressive this AM forecasting 68 as a result and was tempted to go about as warm for FRI...

OK...reality check. This is mid-February...winter still lurks as an airmass of Arctic origins will start to build later in the week in Canada and start moving back south. this airmass will be a cold slap in the face when it moves in...and typically around here, when it gets that warm, there has to be a snapback. That snapback looks to arrive SAT, if not 12 hours earlier. How long this airmass holds on and whether or not it all comes down at once or in pieces as the GFS is showing remains to be seen. The bottom line, while we may be out in shorts later in the week...make sure the winter coat is still in the closet, you'll need it again by the 20th or so...

It's been a wild ride for weather, not only here but across the country...with tonight or tomorrow night, with our weather settling down a bit, I'll look back on the air and talk about some of these events. Historical state lows (OK)...historical snowfalls...it's been crazy.

Joe