Welcome to the Warm Sector. Our warm front surged through the region this AM as expected. There were some scattered showers and a few t/storms along the I-70 corridor, that activity then quickly moved to the North, and eventually made it towards the IA border near daybreak. Severe weather though was tough to come by, some brief wind gusts and maybe some small hail. Now everybody is heating up and the winds are pretty decent out of the south at close to 30+ MPH. This will occur again tomorrow as well.

Aloft the air has warmed dramatically in the last 48 hours. We've gone from 10C (50F) to 20C (68F) from the balloon sounding site @ Topeka. That's pretty impressive and with all the wind that's out there, we're also effectively mixing this warm air to the ground, allowing temperatures today to soar compared to yesterday. We're well into the 80s now and some may finish the day in the lower 90s! Again expect a repeat tomorrow with no rain threat. Not only is the air warm at the surface but the cap has built in as well. Temperatures at 10K feet are also close to 58F. That prevents the updrafts from penetrating that depth of warm air, hence the reference to the CAP. This keeps the lid on towering cumulus clouds turning into t/storm producing clouds.


Here is the latest weather map from the 1PM hour showing the warm sector and where the warm front is located....

The latest visible satellite pictures are also painting a bright picture for the rest of the afternoon...

Still some residual cloud cover in N MO, but aside from that we're looking clear from the 36 highway corridor points southwards.

There really haven't been any changes to my thoughts for the next 5-7 days compared to yesterday. There will be some sort of weak outflow or rain cooled air that slips into the area on TUE and weakens/falls apart nearby. This should generate clouds if nothing else. See yesterday's blog for more information about that idea.

Wednesday we'll warm up a couple of more degrees and then jump back into the ridge for the end of the week and next weekend. Many forecasters will look at the upper air maps and see this huge central US ridge and think, wow here come the near 100 degree heat. While that would be true during the mid summer months, now with the terrain being so green and lush and with there being so much moisture that needs to evaporate, I'll play things more conservative and keep highs, give or take near 90 at the worst. Maybe a degree or two warmer next weekend as we start to dry out a bit. This growing like crazy vegetation, here and through the region to our south will cut our potential highs from 2-5 degrees for a while.

This ridge of High Pressure aloft is rather strong for late May/early June. Take a look at the maps. We call these "Heat Wave Generators" because of the typically slow movement and their ability to heat things up and cause the air to go stagnant on you. Again in mid July we'd be talking about 100+ heat if things were dried out.  This will effectively push all the significant storms well off to the NW of here...

It's going to be a quieter next 7 days, and aside from an occasional rain chance on TUE and a slight chance on WED as the hot air moves back into the region, it's going to be very summery around these parts for a while. Enjoy it if your a fan of the heat and humidity!

Joe



ads

A Late May surge of heat is heading this way. As temperatures percolate across the southern plains states, we are caught beneath a low gray overcast with a few patches of some drizzle out there. Aside from the drizzle there really isn't much else showing up on radar. No storms, no real areas of rainfall except for some storms in NE MO.

A warm front is situated down across the south part of the plains states. It's showing up nicely on the surface map and it really isn't moving all that much nor will it till overnight tonight.


As the winds above the surface kick in this evening...there will be lift going on. However as all this occurs temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere will be warming considerably. The CAP will be building in. So really it's a race to see whether or not convection (with potential hail) could form before the cap creates a lid on the updrafts. This will be what I monitor this evening. I think the convection chances should hold off till later tonight, around 10PM-4AM. The threat should go way down heading towards daybreak tomorrow as we jump into the warmer, more humid airmass to finish off the holidday weekend. So the pools will be a lot more crowded Sunday and Monday. In addition to the muggies settling in for a few days, the winds are also going to increase rather dramatically as well. The South winds will be blowing @ 20-40+ MPH through Monday.

How long the heat lasts is a bit of a question mark. There are signs in the modelling that some sort of convection fueled boundary may creep into the area from the west and NW in the form of an outflow from some plains storms. on Tuesday. This would certainly have an impact on highs Tuesday. Perhaps even introduce some rain chances into the forecast as that boundary washes out nearby.

Here is the forecast map for 1PM Tuesday off the NAM model...it shows a boundary of sorts near by. What convection is there would probably be weakening as it approaches the KC area, perhaps being a bit more substantial across NW MO.

Depending on what that boundary does and how far it makes it, or doesn't in the area will determine the weather on TUE....should it get here we could be only near 75-80, should it fall apart before it gets here we may be 85 or so with residual clouds, and should it not get here at all and there is little cloud cover we may be closer to 90. So that day will be tricky.

Then on the assumption that boundary falls apart or lifts back to the north, then we go right back into the warm humid airmass through next weekend. The GFS is indicating the potential for some sort of disturbance to come out of the Panhandles on WED giving us another opportunity for rainfall. This would be iffy at this point but the Canadian is also doing this as well. So while the heat will build in for 2 days it may edge off dor another couple of days before returning in a strong way heading towards next weekend.

Some additional information concerning our severe weather season thus far. Sadly the death toll from the Joplin tornado a week ago tomorrow now is up to about 140. That makes this season the deadliest overall since 1950 with at least 520 fatalities. According to MO the unaccounted for still number near 100 so this number sadly may still go up.. There have been now close to 295 reports of tornados this month and more than 1335 reports this year. There have been 55 tornados associated with fatalities compared to the 3 year average of 22. Sadly that 520 fatality number is destined to go even higher. The 3 year avg is 64. So we're running 900% above average in that regard.

Finally some interesting video of the winds associated with the tornado last week in Joplin. Take a look at the clock as well, as the outer part of the tornadic winds affect this house.

Joe

New Tornado Watch has been issued. this includes areas from the Metro southwards. At this point while it can't be ruled out, the threat appears rather low for the metro area. Storms moving north later this evening will need to be monitored, but we still feel. as we've felt all day, that the main threat will be high winds...60+ MPH and perhaps some hail as well. Here is the outline of the latest Watch...

Joe

Now we wait...

A lot of folks are concerned about the potential for tonight. Understandably so. After what happened in Joplin, MO the other night, a lot of folks, especially those who fear these types of weather events are a bit on edge. We understand and will try to calm some nerves with our coverage during the newscasts later this evening. However, perhaps for some of you you can use this heightened awareness for a benefit. Consider it your opportunity, IF you haven't already, to have a severe weather plan in place. Go over it with your family and practice it if necessary.

1st some decent news for the time being, no active weather is expected for the rest of the afternoon and most of the evening. The complex of storms that moved across the northland has left a residual boundary of rain cooled air and stability on top of the metro and points north. Those lunchtime storms also produced a lot of reports of dark ominous clouds with all sorts of movements inside. Very interesting to see. They also produced some severe weather in the form of 50-60 MPH winds and some quarter to golf-ball size hailstones. Again, aside from some lighter showers perhaps, nothing significant is expected for the rest of the afternoon and early evening.

From there, we wait and see what comes together across the plains where tornado watches are posted. The NWS in Norman has posted an interesting statement to the effect that they're discouraging travel in the I-35 corridor. Already storms with tornados have been reported across parts of OK and the concern is as high as can be for the folks towards OK City. Already in Red Rock, 2 homes have destroyed and a massive wedge tornado is located near I-40 near El Reno. A scary situation for them!

this blog is taking awhile for me as I just watched about 1 hour of coverage from our sister station in Ok City...KFOR. They are live streaming

Meanwhile, we're watching these storms move rapidly through NC OK and SC KS...these are moving NNE and would be arriving after 9AM tonight. As the storms move oour way, a warm front to the soouth of here will be lifting towards the north This may do a couple of things, depending on how far north the front gets, as the storms move and perhaps intersect that front, there may be some isolated tornados and then the farther north the storms get, they will get, as we say in the business, elevated which means more of a hail/wind threat than tornado threat. So we'll be watching the temperatures for the next several hours.

The SPC has issued a TORNADO WATCH for Eastern KS and parts of SE NE...

The storms trajectory means that E KS will have the first issues with this before we get them in the metro later this evening.

Joe

This is one miserable looking satellite picture, but where it was raining this AM, towards the I-80 corridor, it has now somewhat cleared out as this satellite picture will reveal.

Unfortunately there is rain in some of that cloud cover, and while I'm not expecting a lot for the metro, areas to the NE of KC are not having a nice weather afternoon as expected. Take a look at radar.

So some rain is expected with the higher chances on the MO side for the rest of the afternoon. We're right now @ 52 degrees and may rise another 1-3 before the rain arrives, with NW winds gusting to 20 or so, just not pleasant again out there. Where there is rain falling, temperatures are in the 40s.

Now let's go down to the Gulf Of Mexico area where southern Texas has seen the richer gulf moisture temporarily get somewhat eliminated...notice those dewpoints in the green numbers...40s/50s as opposed to the 60s/70s from earlier this week. This means, with wind trajectories taking their time returning towards the south, that moisture return into our area, of significance will wait towards Thursday. Once it gets here it may get pretty humid out there again through next weekend and a lot warmer as well.

Our next significant rain chance will be tied to a storm off the western part of the country. It will wait for some additional jet stream energy off the coast of Alaska and then reorganize in the western part of the US. Then that newly developed storm will then move through the Western Plains and into the Western Dakotas. This will create a favorable set-up for rainfall sometime THU into FRI and perhaps a lingering chance in the heat on SAT (more scattered). At this point it's tough to say how heavy this will be for us but there is some potential for a beneficial rainfall for many areas of the Plains states.

Here is the GFS projection for a 5 day total from 7AM FRI through 7AM WED the 25th...

It certainly will be a wetter and warmer period through the rest of the month as opposed to what we've seen for the 1st half of May (.67" @ KCI) with near average temperatures. This however, shouldn't be surprising since the next 3-4 weeks are typically the wettest of the year. It should also reignite a slow month of severe weather chasing, especially down through the southern plains states and also up through the western plains. Still not seeing anything overwhelming for this part of the country for awhile but there are signs the last week of May could be much more active closer to home.


Have a great week

Joe

Feels like it's time to talk about the Chiefs or maybe some college football doesn't it. Just not too pretty at all out there are our pattern is now all sorts of blocked up and the weather that you get hangs around for a few days. The bad news is that this weekend that means lots of clouds, but once Monday creeps in, then our storm/moisture will be far enough away from here to allow sunshine to break through. Since the sensible, day to day weather is changing so slowly, that means the sunshine when it gets here will stick aroound for several days as well.  By the way the average high for this time of the year is close to 75

Take a look at the temperatures right now through the Plains states...

Actually we'll have some wonderful weather starting on Monday with highs in the 60s/70s and lows near 40.  There will be the opportunity to at least threaten (& perhaps break) some record lows. The records are in the upper 30s from MON-THU...take a look

MONDAY:  37

TUESDAY:  39

WEDNESDAY:  39

THURSDAY:  39

A Couple of these records go way back to the 1890s.

Lows should be down to at least 40 most of those AMs, especially MON-WED.....so whether or not we get there we'll see, but we'll certainly be in the neighborhood for a few mornings.

As HP pressures builds in from Southern Canada, it'll leave this cooler airmass in place through WED. After that, the airmass will gradually moderate, however SE winds will essentially have a tough time warming the airmass and I expect the week to be below average.

Another potential storm will move in later THU into next weekend. At this point it looks promising for some decent + rainfall here...especially FRI/SAT. Actually as early as THU we'll need to watch for an area of fading rainfall running into the dry air in place as it moves towards the NE up the I-35 corridor.

Severe weather wise...all of a sudden quiet.  May, which on average is the most active month for tornados is very quiet with only 27 reports thus far. The late week storm also no not look like a prolific producer at this point, perhaps something like what we saw this week as instability in areas most prone to storm formation, may be harder to come by for awhile. Interestingly there have been 0 reports of tornados this MAY in KS and only 2 in OK (5/33 are the yearly totals while MO has had 35 reports.

Have a great weekend...

\Joe

Well the big story in the KC Weather World is our soon to be next dose of summer like heat and humidity heading this way. We'll transition into that airmass tomorrow night and MON AM and you'll be feeling it MON and Tuesday.

This will be our second shot of heat. It seems like forever ago but we actually have been up to 91 this spring. Back on 4/3 with record highs that afternoon. Also we've had 2 days with highs of 87 on 4/9-10. So we've been there and we're going back for another couple of days. Monday I'm expecting highs in the upper 80s-90 and Tuesday near if not into the lower 90s. I first thought this might happen this past Wednesday and it looks like it will come about. The humidity will also be pretty high so for the first time this season the Heat Index will be approaching 95-100 or so as well. This should break on Wednesday at this point. That will depend on the progress of a cold front. The EURO seems to be on the flakey side over the last 3+ days so I'll be putting much of the forecast into the hands of the GFS ideas and massaging those thoughts.

The question for tomorrow is that the set-up is extremely favorable, when looking at the wind shear parameters, for severe weather. However I placed the storm chance at only 20% tomorrow and that is because before the heat and humidity get to overly impressive, yielding a very unstable atmosphere, the winds aloft will be bring in some VERY warm air and effectively capping off the atmosphere. This essentially means that as the atmosphere heats up and the air rises the CAP keeps the air from rising through it. This typically will suppress the vertical development of the cumulus clouds that form and you end up with a muggy day.

The models are very bullish on this cap making it here fast during the day tomorrow. Sometimes weird things can happen, but without any upper level storm to weaken the cap and with most of the features that would promote storm development nearest the surface and not aloft as well...it's going to be tough to generate storms. MON and TUE should follow suit as well for the vast majority of the viewing area. SPC is also on board with this thinking...take a look.

So after this small chance ends, then we'll focus on the heat and humidity. Let's go up to about 5000' or so and show you how the airmasses will be moving across the country. Notice the change from TUE to THU. The REDS/MAGENTAS represent the warmest colors and the blues the coolest.

First Monday...

Now Tuesday...

Now Wednesday...

and finally Thursday...note the substantial cooling moving through the area...

When this type of heat breaks during this time of year (really any tie of year) usually there are some big storms and severe weather. By later WED we'll be tracking a disturbance from the western part of the country...

This, taken at face value, would trigger a large outbreak of severe storms, mostly hail/wind producers (squall line) sometime later WED PM/night. We'd they be cooler and drier for Thursday. Forecasting severe weather from 5 days is is pretty iffy and there are many variable that could diminish our chances, i.e. a lead wave that creates rain/clouds earlier in the day, reducing our instability during the frontal passage. So it's by no means a slam dunk, but certainly something that needs to be watched. A quick look into the 12Z Euro, shows similarities by timing differences with the front some 12-24 hours slower in pushing through.

Regardless it will be cooling off substantially towards the end of the week! Have a great weekend.

Joe




ad

MT has been one busy camper over the last couple of months in preparation for School Day @ The K. We're down to the final hours and things are looking good in terms of the show. Mother Nature may create a few minor headaches for a few hours tomorrow before noon or so. So a heads up for all our kids, some 15,000 expected not including the hundreds that will be walking up to the show. Gates open up @ 8:30 and the Royals will be selling tickets at that time if you want to come out. We continue to make changes to the show by the hour and MT will be working on those through the day.

Concerning the weather for tomorrow. There is a relatively weak front due in before noon or so. Ahead of the front the moisture, at best is meager. There will be little to no moisture return from the gulf for this system to work with. However, after seeing the rain develop last weekend with dewpoints in the 20s, I can't rule out some lighter showers/sprinkles between 8-9AM and 1-2 PM. Amounts should be pretty minor, under .10" but IF you're coming out there, I'd bring a small umbrella to be safe, just in case. Regardless, rain or shine the show goes on. we've always had the best of luck with these things, either it rains beforehand and the show turns out just great, like last year. Or it rains at the end, as we're finishing up, like a few years ago.

From a temperature standpoint, readings in the AM will only be in the 50-55 range, assuming we've got some light rain in the area, some of the rain will evaporate and help cool things down a few degrees, hopefully not to the extent of what happened on Sunday. So the kids should bring a jacket with them. I'm hoping that things progress along nicely and we see good improvement with sun ion the PM tomorrow, allowing highs to pop back into the 60s.

Concerning the SE tornado Outbreak from last week...The Weather Channel has put together some stats...take a look.

Have a great day and again we sure hope to see you tomorrow AM...hopefully the Royals will continue their hot stretch!

Joe

This blog will be a bit shorter than usual, I'm sort of blogged out after the comprehensive information on the tornados over the weekend. Last night @ 9:15 I did, I think, a pretty cool graphic on the Tuscaloosa tornado and talked about the path the tornado took, specifically the path length. One thing that stands out about many of the strong tornados is the unusual path lengths they had. Very long. There are numerous 30-40-50-60-70 and even an 80.3 mi path length. Think about that, a tornado that's anywhere from 1/2 to 1 1/2 miles across on the ground for as long as 80 miles straight. While the intensity of it varied and the size fluctuated during it's lifetime it is very impressive needless to say.

So what I did was create a scenario, then graphically show it. The scenario was let's say that same tornado touched down near the Sprint Center, then hopped on I-70 going WEST...how far would it have traveled? Well it would've gotten to the Speedway (15 mi.)...then it would've gotten to Lawrence (39 mi.) then Big Springs, KS (52 mi.)...however this tornado (like many of the others just would not quit). It then would've made it to Topeka (63 mi) then it would've stayed on the ground through West Topeka towards I-470/70 (69 mi)...finally after 80 miles it would've lifted. Amazing.

Now let's flip the track and head EAST along I-70...the tornado would've stayed on the ground for 80.3 miles total. Past Concordia, Emma, and Sweet Springs. Finally some 15 miles or so east of Sweet Springs it would've lifted just east of Marshall Junction.

Anyway it was an quick interesting scenario. Obviously so much would've happened along the I-70 corridor in the metro. It brought back memories of the Greensburg-KC Study I did a couple of years ago that I've presented to various groups over the last couple of months. In that scenario, nearly $8 BILLION (low side figure) in damage/destruction would've taken place. Something for our local Emergency Managers to think about.

Anyway...back to more local weather.

Frost Advisories are posted for N MO and NE KS. There were some areas this AM with some frost. Although KCI dropped to 36, there were lower readings in Lawrence and St Joe. Those thermometers, while accurate are in valleys. Basehor dropped to 31 and Hamilton did as well. In the metro the temps dropped to 33-38 degrees and tonight may see the same type thing. So if you're concerned about some of those tender plants...cover them up!

Should overall be a quiet week. Maybe a few light showers early THU AM...then a chance of some storms on SAT...towards the middle of next week..severe weather may develop closer to home. So have that on you radar screens about a week from now.

Have a great week!

Joe