Arlene hits land...heat builds but then will break...and the S Plains continue to broil...

Arlene, which I talked about Tuesday on the blog...has now made landfall in Eastern Mexico, well south of the coast of the US. It came ashore packing winds of 60-65 MPH with lots of rainfall.

it really became a pretty nice looking storm system at the end of it's time in the warmer Gulf waters...here is the satellite picture showing the storm as it came ashore...

That should do it for the tropics for awhile...

Meanwhile as of the noon hour temperatures across central and western KS are already near, if not above 100. The core of the heat will out towards the west of here today and then try to sneak into the area tomorrow as the winds become a bit more from the SSW...this should result in a 1-3 degree increase in the highs locally for FRI PM.

The weekend though offers some changes, and also the potential for at least some scattered storms as a very weak but discernible front will move into the area. Here is the forecast may for SAT AM

This front will move to our south on SAT...then eventually retreat back northwards for with more heat and humidity. What is interesting is that the ridge that is creating the heat now in the atmosphere will slowly retreat towards the west. This will then place us into NW flow aloft which will open the doors to the potential of t/storm complexes developing through the plains and rolling towards the ESE or SE and threaten our region. The NAM certainly has one for SUN and the GFS is showing something going on as well. We've had a chance of storms in the forecast for SUN for the past couple of days and I'll be increasing the chances later this afternoon.

While the heat will break this weekend, the humidity may be pretty thick on SAT and then depending on the storms on SUN AM may be thick again to finish the holiday weekend.

Did you know that Oklahoma City has hit 90 or above every day this month. This Southern Plains drough is impressive and really shows no immediate signs of ending.

Another interesting climatological fact is that that the newest 30 year averages will be released in the next couple of days. These averages are used for many things ranging from monthly temperature averages compared to "normal" to precipitation comparisons. What's interesting is the the period will be switching from 1971-2000 to 1981-2010...this will reflect the increase int he US temperatures that has taken place. as a matter of fact the US average will jump almost 1 degree and for many states, the "normal" numbers will reflect a sudden increase. Take a look...

Click on that map to make it larger...also of note...especially during the summer months...should there be a cool summer, the numbers will be more impressive now since we're comparing things to warmer averages as opposed to the previous 1971-2000 comparison.


Have a great holiday weekend...it will cool down and our rain chances may be on the increase.

Joe

Well the rain wasn't that impressive across our area this AM...most locations int he metro sneaking by with under .10" some, up north, may have had .25" but that was rare. Farther northwards the amounts were much more impressive. Here is the doppler estimates of the rainfall for the region...

Rainfall amounts in E NE were generally about .5-1.5", although in the last 7 days that part of the country, SE/E NE and W IA has picked up quite a bit more...

There are some 2-6" totals up there. For us though, after a pretty dry 1st 15 days of the month....25" from 6/1-15...we've actually had a decent amount since...from the 16th through today...3.35" of rain has fallen. Down south the rain has also picked up. At the Jo Co Executive Airport from 6/1-15-.28" Since 6/16 though they've had 3.62" of rainfall. For Downtown KC...from the 6/1-6/15 period a total of 0.0" and since then 2.97". We'll have more opportunities over the next 3 days for additional rainfall.

We've talked for the past couple of days about the drought and the floods going on. There is a saying in the weather world that droughts beget droughts. Basically it means that once a drought has become established, it's very difficult to break through and they continue to fester and expand slowly. In time it does break down though. Remember the SE drought a few years ago, they reversed things and more afterwards. So in time this too will happen in the southern plains. In these situations though there is "feedback" into the atmosphere as the intense heat just continues to bake the soils down there. This in time translates into the mid parts of the atmosphere as large anticyclones (Ridges) develop in start to deviate the jetstream. They can take a normally hot period and make it even more intense. Yesterday Amarillo set a new record high of 109. Not only was it a record for the day...it was their ALL TIME RECORD HIGH. I would've thought that would have been higher, but apparently not 108 was. These records go back to the early 1930s so we're taking into account the dust bowl era as well. Very impressive.

The reason I bring this up is that the upper midwest and northern Rockies are obviously, as illustrated this week in the blog, and in the headlines for months now, is going through the opposite. Much like the ridging tendencies in drought areas there is troffing tendencies in wet areas promoting more wetness and coolness as well. While true cyclones in the summer in the mid levels of the atmosphere are tougher to come by, there is a tendency for the atmosphere aloft to show cooler tendencies. This would in turn create more cold fronts, and/or allow the fronts to penetrate farther southwards than typical.

So essentially you have a battle that shapes up between the ridge and the troffing through the central 1/3rd of the USA. What does this mean for our sensible weather here...to me it means both regimes will control our weather with a nod to the ridging overall. I do like the idea that there will be periods of time when that ridge and the heat really poke our way for awhile. I also like the thoughts that cold fronts will still be able to move our way every so often and knock the edge off the heat for a couple of days before the heat returns again. This also is a set-up for alternating dry and somewhat wet times with an increase in nocturnal t/storm clusters imo.

This coming week, we'll have one cold front move in Monday with perhaps another towards the end of the week. Not bad for the last week of June. Should this still be happening in mid July, I like the chances of us having average to above rainfall for the July/August frame. While temperatures may trend to average to slightly above, I don't believe a repeat of last summers intense heat/dryness is ahead in July/August. Will we hit 100...sure, that's normal, and when that Southern Plains ridge puts the hammer down...105 is not out of the question somewhere this summer. On average we hit 90+ 36 times each year...last year we did it a remarkable 50 times! This year, so far we've hit 90+ 10 times. My feeling is that we'll be ABOVE average in terms of the number of 90 degree days this summer.

So anyway those are my summer time thoughts...if that didn't do it for you, perhaps Tom Hanks doing the weather on a Spanish television network will do it for you.

Joe

Where is the rain?

Not exactly a great forecast today...sort of cleaned it up this AM...but yesterday's forecast today wasn't great. I got mad this AM when I looked at radar and saw some decent rain 1 county south of the metro, 2 counties north of the metro and several counties west of the metro. The latter is now weakening but producing sprinkles/some light showers now as it moves through the area, especially north of I-70 certainly at this point a FAR cry from the potential of .5"-2" of rainfall.

Why the bust thus far...well as I explained yesterday the tracking of these MCS's are tricky sometimes. Last night the thing that bothered me was that while the MCS formed, and was moving this way, the winds above the surface which were bringing needed moisture into the system in the central part of KS were dramatically weaker farther east...hinting at the possibility that as the MCS moved away from it's moisture transport, it would weaken somewhat...and it really went poof just towards the east of the stateline area south of the metro this AM. That was the system I was hoping would give us the rainfall. Then another batch of storms/rsin developed and started to move ESE...I didn't have a lot of confidence in that area totally making it to us as you could see the t/storms dropping to the SE while the rain was moving eastwards and weakening...I said this AM that we'd have a few showers around at lunch and that's what's happened...barely. Again NOT a good forecast on me behalf! Temperature wise it'll be OK...but aside from that not great at all.

As a matter of fact, behind this little wave of fading showers, the sun should return during the middle of the afternoon, so while we're in the 60s as of this writing, we should jump well the 70s later this PM. Looking at the visible satellite photos this afternoon, you can see all sorts of twists and turns in the clouds that will need to be monitored this afternoon, but temperatures in the 70s won't cut it much to get renewed convection since the atmosphere won't be getting that unstable here...but it's something to watch

The data has also changed considerably as the warm front to the south of here, which was supposed to lurch through here tonight, now may barely make it to the metro. This means that my temperature forecast for tomorrow may be 5-10 degrees too high and Tuesday may need a downward revision as well. Here is the NAM forecast for tomorrow @ noon...

With that warm front lurking to our SW, we may also see some t/storm activity around the area early tomorrow AM, especially during the 3AM-10AM time frame...these storms may be able to generate some hail.

Then on Tuesday that surface low in the plains moves by to our south, meaning that the circulation around that LOW may drag back down the cooler air that will be in IA and N MO tomorrow thanks to N/NE winds so TUE is another day with a potential temperature bust.

Needless to say rather difficult to figure out for the next several days...

The FOX 4 Weathering The Storm Seminar is coming up on Saturday June 18th, starting @ 9:00 (be there earlier). Tickets are free but we're asking for a $5 donation to our Project Storm Relief which is supporting rebuilding efforts int he Joplin/Sedalia/Reading, KS areas. Since I'm getting more and more calls about it, and emails I thought this venue might be a bit easier to get all the thoughts together....

Here are the details...

WHEN: Saturday, June 18th @ 9AM

WHERE: Union Station's Extreme Screen Theater (holds 450 with extra room for standing, if needed)

HOW LONG: We're saying till at least NOON...I think closer to 12:30

TICKETS: 1st Come...1st Serve...that's why you want to be there earlier for best seats

VENUE: For those who have never been, the inside of the theater has rows of seats that go vertical pretty significantly...it's not a typical movie theater

SPEAKERS: Here is a list/subjects thus far...(Updated Saturday 6//11)

1) Bob Brown (AFI Insurance-Joplin) talking about making sure you are set from a home insurance standpoint. Not all home insurance policies are the same and there are pitfalls that you can avoid should the worst happen.
2) A child psychologist talking about ideas and ways of helping your children overcome their fears concerning severe weather events. I can't tell you how many calls I've taken concerning this matter over the years.
3) Patrick Sallee-Director Of Development Red Cross...addressing their needs and what your donation will go towards.
4) Chris Novy (SKYWARN Training) Chris is going to talk about being aware of the hazards around you during severe weather events. You'll laugh at times when he's talking seeing some of the dumb things people who are out chasing storms do. He's fabulous if you're interested in severe weather spotting.
5) Andy Bailey (National Weather Service-[Pleasant Hill]). Andy will be talking about the basics of spotting and identifying severe thunderstorms as well as covering storm safety for families.
6) Reed Timmer (Storm Chasers-Discover Channel) Reed has had a busy spring as usual crisscrossing a lot of territory east of the Rockies looking for tornadic storms. He will be showing a video recap of the tornados in the SE part of the country as well as events here in the midwest.
7) A Panel discussion/Q & A period will finish off the program

Note that after each speaker there will be time for questions as well...we realize that you may have a lot of questions about what has happened this year and we want to try to ease your fears/concerns as much as possible if that is an issue for you.

I'm getting more and more excited about what we've put together in just the last 2 weeks. There will also be videos and a pamphlet distributed with additional web site information.

See below for updated speaker additions for the seminar...

Forecasting MCS (Mesoscale Convective Systems) can be a difficult thing...usually you can tell that there will be one and it's sometimes easier to see where it should form as opposed to where it will be in some 12-18 hours after it's formation and that's the case for tomorrow's potential. I'm expecting a bunch of t/storms to form later this PM out across the western plains states and march through KS...now the issue will be 1) do they hold together... and 2) do they march due east or move east then turn towards the SE or SSE into the better low level inflow.

While quiet now there should be an eruption of storms later this afternoon across parts of E CO. This is an area that is being watched by the SPC for potential severe weather...

Once formed the storms will slowly come together and march off towards the east. Should they form in SE CO and SW KS the highest threat of significant rainfall will be towards the S/SW of KC...should they form farther northwards, then we get into the action. Our overnight runs of our Microcast models were nailing us with the potential for 1-2" rainfall. Today's gov't runs show some rain here but focus the heaviest to the SW of KC...

First the NAM...

Now the GFS...

Should the area miss out tomorrow then additional activity becomes more likely tomorrow night and early MON AM as a surface/near surface boundary will be put down allowing for overrunning as a low level jet gets going tomorrow night...that potential would need to be watched for the chance of large hail/winds...


So in essence, I do think it will rain/storm again before 9AM Monday...however the timing of the significant rainfall is a bit of a question. Should the second scenario lay out then we'd be a few degrees less hot on Monday...another system would be due in later TUE with more storm chances...

That's it for now, I have to keep this short since I'm talking to a group @ 1:30 @ JCCC. Have a great rest of your Saturday...an update is possible this evening.

The FOX 4 Weathering The Storm Seminar is coming up on Saturday June 18th, starting @ 9:00 (be there earlier). Tickets are free but we're asking for a $5 donation to our Project Storm Relief which is supporting rebuilding efforts int he Joplin/Sedalia/Reading, KS areas. Since I'm getting more and more calls about it, and emails I thought this venue might be a bit easier to get all the thoughts together....

Here are the details...

WHEN: Saturday, June 18th @ 9AM

WHERE: Union Station's Extreme Screen Theater (holds 450 with extra room for standing, if needed)

HOW LONG: We're saying till at least NOON...I think closer to 12:30

TICKETS: 1st Come...1st Serve...that's why you want to be there earlier for best seats

VENUE: For those who have never been, the inside of the theater has rows of seats that go vertical pretty significantly...it's not a typical movie theater

SPEAKERS: Here is a list/subjects thus far...(Updated Saturday 6//11)

1) Bob Brown (AFI Insurance-Joplin) talking about making sure you are set from a home insurance standpoint. Not all home insurance policies are the same and there are pitfalls that you can avoid should the worst happen.
2) A child psychologist talking about ideas and ways of helping your children overcome their fears concerning severe weather events. I can't tell you how many calls I've taken concerning this matter over the years.
3) Patrick Sallee-Director Of Development Red Cross...addressing their needs and what your donation will go towards.
4) Chris Novy (SKYWARN Training) Chris is going to talk about being aware of the hazards around you during severe weather events. You'll laugh at times when he's talking seeing some of the dumb things people who are out chasing storms do. He's fabulous if you're interested in severe weather spotting.
5) Andy Bailey (National Weather Service-[Pleasant Hill]). Andy will be talking about the basics of spotting and identifying severe thunderstorms as well as covering storm safety for families.
6) Reed Timmer (Storm Chasers-Discover Channel) Reed has had a busy spring as usual crisscrossing a lot of territory east of the Rockies looking for tornadic storms. He will be showing a video recap of the tornados in the SE part of the country as well as events here in the midwest.
7) A Panel discussion/Q & A period will finish off the program

Note that after each speaker there will be time for questions as well...we realize that you may have a lot of questions about what has happened this year and we want to try to ease your fears/concerns as much as possible if that is an issue for you.

I'm getting more and more excited about what we've put together in just the last 2 weeks. There will also be videos and a pamphlet distributed with additional web site information.

So here we are again...another toasty afternoon as temperatures are soaring into the 90s as I type this. before the afternoon is done we'll see highs near 95 for some areas and this will continue probably through Thursday. Dewpoints are coming down as we continue to dry out the terrain around these parts. Readings now are int he 60-65 range so the heat index won't get out of control for the next several days...probably in the 95-100 range.
Just continue to use some common sense and drink plenty of fluids (water) or try to stay in a cool place for those who are more sensitive about the heat.

There are no real changes in my forecast thinking since yesterday. Today there will be no storm activity across the N MO area...we're now capped up and the trof/froont that was lurking near the IA border has just about washed out so the chances of getting enough convergence, despite the instability that's out there is low. Actually the cap isn't overly strong today but I still think the vast majority of our viewing area will be dry. The latest satellite loops are looking dry/clear out there.

There is an impressive storm across the western part of the country...actually just offshore. It brought record rainfall to a few cities out west yesterday including San Francisco (1.07"), Oakland (1.45") and Monterey (.83").

There may be some snow across some of the higher elevations above 7500 feet out there...where 3-6" is possible tomorrow. Meanwhile in the SE part of the country there were 30 record highs yesterday, including New Orleans which hit 100 degrees.

Hey how about some snow in Hawaii of all places...yup it can happen on the mountain tops, actually it's not to surprising if the have cold air aloft...and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the Big Island Summits till 6PM Local Time.

The folks from NOAA-NCDC have issued a report on the Joplin Tornado...including posting some interesting video showing the tornadic storm in 3D. Take a look.

I've spent a good portion of my weather time this weekend talking about the flooding situation across the upper midwest, associated with all the water flowing down the MO River. I'll post some of the graphics when I get back to work...but it's amazing that today the amount of water passing through Gavin's Pt Dam, which is the last of 15 dams across the upper midwest controlling the MO River, is releasing about 65 BILLION gallons of water per day...however due to all the precipitation and now the melting snow that's entering the river from the Big Sky country...the rate will be going up tremendously over the next 10+ days. By the 14th, assuming that the rainfall is normal up there between now and then the rate will be increased to almost 1 TRILLION gallons per day...which is 1.5 times the amount of ALL the water in the Lake of the Ozarks/day!!! Amazing and no wonder there is great concern about river flooding from St Joseph northwards. Folks in IA are especially vulnerable from this situation. Here is an update on a levee breach in NW MO.

Now look at what happens with the release around the 14th...incredible increases!

Joe

Skies are mostly sunny early this afternoon around the region as temperatures have heated up into the upper 80s and we will make it into the 92-05 degree range before the afternoon is over with. Dewpoints are int he upper 60s now, essentially the same as yesterday, perhaps a 2 notches higher, as the winds are not as strong as yesterday as expected.

The morning soundings reveal a breakable cap in place right now, with convection possible as temperatures burst into the middle 90s. The latest surface map is showing a weak trof located towards the N/NW of KC drifting towards the SE. The convergence (air coming together) associated with the front is very weak and will stay weak this afternoon. Here is the latest weather map...

This area that's highlighted in GREEN across N MO and S IA is an area that will be watched in a couple of more hours for convective trends and potential initiation. The SPC is also watching this area for the potential for severe weather, in the form of hail and potential strong winds....

The newest RUC doesn't have much really going on, while the latest HRRR model is showing intitaion close to the 36 highway corridor...

Click on those images to make them larger.

My feeling is that storms will initiate and drift off towards the East @ 10-20 mph and dump mostly heavy rainfall in the areas that get hit. Whether or not those storms could move towards the N or NE side of the metro at this point is doubtful. Scattered storms won't really do it, we'll need a large area of storms to generate an outflow/mini cold front that can push our way this evening. Again as I've been saying for several days now, something to be alert for after 7PM tonight.

Aside from that, the pattern continues to be hot and stay hot as highs should be int he 92-95 range through WED or THU. Storms will become more likely later in the week, perhaps as early as THU. Temperatures will trend down with the added storm threat and cloud cover issues later it the week.

Weather tidbits for the day...

San Fransisco break their MONTHLY June record today for rainfall, with .86. Very impressive storm circulation sitting off the coast of CA today. Take a look!

That storm will slowly break down the ridge aloft that's sitting on the middle part of the country. Again this happens later int he week.

Don't forget about our special WEATHERING THE STORM seminar that's free and open to all. Donations for the Joplin Relief Fund will certainly be accepted. Saturday, June 18th from 9AM till 12:30 or so. Speakers from around the country will be talking about Storm Spotting and Safety, Storm Psychology for those, young and old who are scared of these types of storms.. Making sure your are prepared from an insurance standpoint should the worst happen. We're also hoping Reed Timmer from the Discover Channel program Stormchasers will be there showing his amazing work as well as the newest Dominator 2 vehicle that he uses for all his chasing. The show will appeal to kids and adults and I'm getting very excited about the possibilities. Ticket information will be forthcoming.

Joe

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