Arlene, which I talked about Tuesday on the blog...has now made landfall in Eastern Mexico, well south of the coast of the US. It came ashore packing winds of 60-65 MPH with lots of rainfall.
it really became a pretty nice looking storm system at the end of it's time in the warmer Gulf waters...here is the satellite picture showing the storm as it came ashore...
That should do it for the tropics for awhile...
Meanwhile as of the noon hour temperatures across central and western KS are already near, if not above 100. The core of the heat will out towards the west of here today and then try to sneak into the area tomorrow as the winds become a bit more from the SSW...this should result in a 1-3 degree increase in the highs locally for FRI PM.
The weekend though offers some changes, and also the potential for at least some scattered storms as a very weak but discernible front will move into the area. Here is the forecast may for SAT AM
This front will move to our south on SAT...then eventually retreat back northwards for with more heat and humidity. What is interesting is that the ridge that is creating the heat now in the atmosphere will slowly retreat towards the west. This will then place us into NW flow aloft which will open the doors to the potential of t/storm complexes developing through the plains and rolling towards the ESE or SE and threaten our region. The NAM certainly has one for SUN and the GFS is showing something going on as well. We've had a chance of storms in the forecast for SUN for the past couple of days and I'll be increasing the chances later this afternoon.
While the heat will break this weekend, the humidity may be pretty thick on SAT and then depending on the storms on SUN AM may be thick again to finish the holiday weekend.
Did you know that Oklahoma City has hit 90 or above every day this month. This Southern Plains drough is impressive and really shows no immediate signs of ending.
Another interesting climatological fact is that that the newest 30 year averages will be released in the next couple of days. These averages are used for many things ranging from monthly temperature averages compared to "normal" to precipitation comparisons. What's interesting is the the period will be switching from 1971-2000 to 1981-2010...this will reflect the increase int he US temperatures that has taken place. as a matter of fact the US average will jump almost 1 degree and for many states, the "normal" numbers will reflect a sudden increase. Take a look...
Click on that map to make it larger...also of note...especially during the summer months...should there be a cool summer, the numbers will be more impressive now since we're comparing things to warmer averages as opposed to the previous 1971-2000 comparison.
Have a great holiday weekend...it will cool down and our rain chances may be on the increase.
Joe
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