Forecasting MCS (Mesoscale Convective Systems) can be a difficult thing...usually you can tell that there will be one and it's sometimes easier to see where it should form as opposed to where it will be in some 12-18 hours after it's formation and that's the case for tomorrow's potential. I'm expecting a bunch of t/storms to form later this PM out across the western plains states and march through KS...now the issue will be 1) do they hold together... and 2) do they march due east or move east then turn towards the SE or SSE into the better low level inflow.
While quiet now there should be an eruption of storms later this afternoon across parts of E CO. This is an area that is being watched by the SPC for potential severe weather...
Once formed the storms will slowly come together and march off towards the east. Should they form in SE CO and SW KS the highest threat of significant rainfall will be towards the S/SW of KC...should they form farther northwards, then we get into the action. Our overnight runs of our Microcast models were nailing us with the potential for 1-2" rainfall. Today's gov't runs show some rain here but focus the heaviest to the SW of KC...
First the NAM...
Now the GFS...
Should the area miss out tomorrow then additional activity becomes more likely tomorrow night and early MON AM as a surface/near surface boundary will be put down allowing for overrunning as a low level jet gets going tomorrow night...that potential would need to be watched for the chance of large hail/winds...
So in essence, I do think it will rain/storm again before 9AM Monday...however the timing of the significant rainfall is a bit of a question. Should the second scenario lay out then we'd be a few degrees less hot on Monday...another system would be due in later TUE with more storm chances...
That's it for now, I have to keep this short since I'm talking to a group @ 1:30 @ JCCC. Have a great rest of your Saturday...an update is possible this evening.
The FOX 4 Weathering The Storm Seminar is coming up on Saturday June 18th, starting @ 9:00 (be there earlier). Tickets are free but we're asking for a $5 donation to our Project Storm Relief which is supporting rebuilding efforts int he Joplin/Sedalia/Reading, KS areas. Since I'm getting more and more calls about it, and emails I thought this venue might be a bit easier to get all the thoughts together....
Here are the details...
WHEN: Saturday, June 18th @ 9AM
WHERE: Union Station's Extreme Screen Theater (holds 450 with extra room for standing, if needed)
HOW LONG: We're saying till at least NOON...I think closer to 12:30
TICKETS: 1st Come...1st Serve...that's why you want to be there earlier for best seats
VENUE: For those who have never been, the inside of the theater has rows of seats that go vertical pretty significantly...it's not a typical movie theater
SPEAKERS: Here is a list/subjects thus far...(Updated Saturday 6//11)
1) Bob Brown (AFI Insurance-Joplin) talking about making sure you are set from a home insurance standpoint. Not all home insurance policies are the same and there are pitfalls that you can avoid should the worst happen.
2) A child psychologist talking about ideas and ways of helping your children overcome their fears concerning severe weather events. I can't tell you how many calls I've taken concerning this matter over the years.
3) Patrick Sallee-Director Of Development Red Cross...addressing their needs and what your donation will go towards.
4) Chris Novy (SKYWARN Training) Chris is going to talk about being aware of the hazards around you during severe weather events. You'll laugh at times when he's talking seeing some of the dumb things people who are out chasing storms do. He's fabulous if you're interested in severe weather spotting.
5) Andy Bailey (National Weather Service-[Pleasant Hill]). Andy will be talking about the basics of spotting and identifying severe thunderstorms as well as covering storm safety for families.
6) Reed Timmer (Storm Chasers-Discover Channel) Reed has had a busy spring as usual crisscrossing a lot of territory east of the Rockies looking for tornadic storms. He will be showing a video recap of the tornados in the SE part of the country as well as events here in the midwest.
7) A Panel discussion/Q & A period will finish off the program
Note that after each speaker there will be time for questions as well...we realize that you may have a lot of questions about what has happened this year and we want to try to ease your fears/concerns as much as possible if that is an issue for you.
I'm getting more and more excited about what we've put together in just the last 2 weeks. There will also be videos and a pamphlet distributed with additional web site information.
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