Skies are mostly sunny early this afternoon around the region as temperatures have heated up into the upper 80s and we will make it into the 92-05 degree range before the afternoon is over with. Dewpoints are int he upper 60s now, essentially the same as yesterday, perhaps a 2 notches higher, as the winds are not as strong as yesterday as expected.

The morning soundings reveal a breakable cap in place right now, with convection possible as temperatures burst into the middle 90s. The latest surface map is showing a weak trof located towards the N/NW of KC drifting towards the SE. The convergence (air coming together) associated with the front is very weak and will stay weak this afternoon. Here is the latest weather map...

This area that's highlighted in GREEN across N MO and S IA is an area that will be watched in a couple of more hours for convective trends and potential initiation. The SPC is also watching this area for the potential for severe weather, in the form of hail and potential strong winds....

The newest RUC doesn't have much really going on, while the latest HRRR model is showing intitaion close to the 36 highway corridor...

Click on those images to make them larger.

My feeling is that storms will initiate and drift off towards the East @ 10-20 mph and dump mostly heavy rainfall in the areas that get hit. Whether or not those storms could move towards the N or NE side of the metro at this point is doubtful. Scattered storms won't really do it, we'll need a large area of storms to generate an outflow/mini cold front that can push our way this evening. Again as I've been saying for several days now, something to be alert for after 7PM tonight.

Aside from that, the pattern continues to be hot and stay hot as highs should be int he 92-95 range through WED or THU. Storms will become more likely later in the week, perhaps as early as THU. Temperatures will trend down with the added storm threat and cloud cover issues later it the week.

Weather tidbits for the day...

San Fransisco break their MONTHLY June record today for rainfall, with .86. Very impressive storm circulation sitting off the coast of CA today. Take a look!

That storm will slowly break down the ridge aloft that's sitting on the middle part of the country. Again this happens later int he week.

Don't forget about our special WEATHERING THE STORM seminar that's free and open to all. Donations for the Joplin Relief Fund will certainly be accepted. Saturday, June 18th from 9AM till 12:30 or so. Speakers from around the country will be talking about Storm Spotting and Safety, Storm Psychology for those, young and old who are scared of these types of storms.. Making sure your are prepared from an insurance standpoint should the worst happen. We're also hoping Reed Timmer from the Discover Channel program Stormchasers will be there showing his amazing work as well as the newest Dominator 2 vehicle that he uses for all his chasing. The show will appeal to kids and adults and I'm getting very excited about the possibilities. Ticket information will be forthcoming.

Joe

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