Where is the rain?

Not exactly a great forecast today...sort of cleaned it up this AM...but yesterday's forecast today wasn't great. I got mad this AM when I looked at radar and saw some decent rain 1 county south of the metro, 2 counties north of the metro and several counties west of the metro. The latter is now weakening but producing sprinkles/some light showers now as it moves through the area, especially north of I-70 certainly at this point a FAR cry from the potential of .5"-2" of rainfall.

Why the bust thus far...well as I explained yesterday the tracking of these MCS's are tricky sometimes. Last night the thing that bothered me was that while the MCS formed, and was moving this way, the winds above the surface which were bringing needed moisture into the system in the central part of KS were dramatically weaker farther east...hinting at the possibility that as the MCS moved away from it's moisture transport, it would weaken somewhat...and it really went poof just towards the east of the stateline area south of the metro this AM. That was the system I was hoping would give us the rainfall. Then another batch of storms/rsin developed and started to move ESE...I didn't have a lot of confidence in that area totally making it to us as you could see the t/storms dropping to the SE while the rain was moving eastwards and weakening...I said this AM that we'd have a few showers around at lunch and that's what's happened...barely. Again NOT a good forecast on me behalf! Temperature wise it'll be OK...but aside from that not great at all.

As a matter of fact, behind this little wave of fading showers, the sun should return during the middle of the afternoon, so while we're in the 60s as of this writing, we should jump well the 70s later this PM. Looking at the visible satellite photos this afternoon, you can see all sorts of twists and turns in the clouds that will need to be monitored this afternoon, but temperatures in the 70s won't cut it much to get renewed convection since the atmosphere won't be getting that unstable here...but it's something to watch

The data has also changed considerably as the warm front to the south of here, which was supposed to lurch through here tonight, now may barely make it to the metro. This means that my temperature forecast for tomorrow may be 5-10 degrees too high and Tuesday may need a downward revision as well. Here is the NAM forecast for tomorrow @ noon...

With that warm front lurking to our SW, we may also see some t/storm activity around the area early tomorrow AM, especially during the 3AM-10AM time frame...these storms may be able to generate some hail.

Then on Tuesday that surface low in the plains moves by to our south, meaning that the circulation around that LOW may drag back down the cooler air that will be in IA and N MO tomorrow thanks to N/NE winds so TUE is another day with a potential temperature bust.

Needless to say rather difficult to figure out for the next several days...

The FOX 4 Weathering The Storm Seminar is coming up on Saturday June 18th, starting @ 9:00 (be there earlier). Tickets are free but we're asking for a $5 donation to our Project Storm Relief which is supporting rebuilding efforts int he Joplin/Sedalia/Reading, KS areas. Since I'm getting more and more calls about it, and emails I thought this venue might be a bit easier to get all the thoughts together....

Here are the details...

WHEN: Saturday, June 18th @ 9AM

WHERE: Union Station's Extreme Screen Theater (holds 450 with extra room for standing, if needed)

HOW LONG: We're saying till at least NOON...I think closer to 12:30

TICKETS: 1st Come...1st Serve...that's why you want to be there earlier for best seats

VENUE: For those who have never been, the inside of the theater has rows of seats that go vertical pretty significantly...it's not a typical movie theater

SPEAKERS: Here is a list/subjects thus far...(Updated Saturday 6//11)

1) Bob Brown (AFI Insurance-Joplin) talking about making sure you are set from a home insurance standpoint. Not all home insurance policies are the same and there are pitfalls that you can avoid should the worst happen.
2) A child psychologist talking about ideas and ways of helping your children overcome their fears concerning severe weather events. I can't tell you how many calls I've taken concerning this matter over the years.
3) Patrick Sallee-Director Of Development Red Cross...addressing their needs and what your donation will go towards.
4) Chris Novy (SKYWARN Training) Chris is going to talk about being aware of the hazards around you during severe weather events. You'll laugh at times when he's talking seeing some of the dumb things people who are out chasing storms do. He's fabulous if you're interested in severe weather spotting.
5) Andy Bailey (National Weather Service-[Pleasant Hill]). Andy will be talking about the basics of spotting and identifying severe thunderstorms as well as covering storm safety for families.
6) Reed Timmer (Storm Chasers-Discover Channel) Reed has had a busy spring as usual crisscrossing a lot of territory east of the Rockies looking for tornadic storms. He will be showing a video recap of the tornados in the SE part of the country as well as events here in the midwest.
7) A Panel discussion/Q & A period will finish off the program

Note that after each speaker there will be time for questions as well...we realize that you may have a lot of questions about what has happened this year and we want to try to ease your fears/concerns as much as possible if that is an issue for you.

I'm getting more and more excited about what we've put together in just the last 2 weeks. There will also be videos and a pamphlet distributed with additional web site information.