I can't imagine how, at some point, we don't see the other shoe drop down on us, but from a weather standpoint one really wonders if this has to be the the best fall weather we've ever enjoyed in these parts in our KC weather history. I think it's easily the best since I've been here, some 17+ years I think and while we'll see some seasonably strong fronts blow through, the pattern is so progressive (fast moving) that whatever cold air delivery we do get won't last but for some 36-48 hours before the cold airmass is moved along and/or moderated by a still strong late October sun angle. This is also helped by our bone dry ground which is now showing signs of stress from all the dry weather and also by a browning landscape as the trees are losing their leaves and/or seeing them go from green to brown. In the summer when this happens we see the temperatures soar and while the effect is muted significantly with the lower sun angle you can get an extra degree or two out of your high temperature potential. That should be the case for the over the next 7-10 days every so often.

The dryness though is now becoming something a bit more than a curiosity. We've really not had a decent (.50"+) rainfall for over two months. IF this would be the precip set-up heading into summer, our chances of having a devastating drought during the summer would be on the increase. From a yearly standpoint we are running some 5.5" below average, most of that has occurred since 9/1 as we're some 5.9" below average in the 50+ days. While at times this year we've been in the positive category for monthly rainfall, it has been a struggle to stay wet for any length of time. Take a look at this next map showing a running total of precip since last October (which went dry in the fall of 2010). It shows us, essentially being in a deficit for the last year+ when taking into account last fall's weather.

While pretty dry, this in no way compares to the devastating drought going on through the western plains states...take a look at the same chart for the Dodge City area...

Again, give us avg rainfall for the last 2 fall seasons and we'd be golden (and a lot greener) but that has not been the case. Check out the last 30 days or so and notice on the following map where the deficit of rainfall is centered...

Our next frontal boundary is going to do about what I expected it to do, push so far to the south that the moisture that will be overrunning it will be to far south of the area. I wouldn't be surprised about the area from KC south getting some scattered light rains/showers/sprinkles but anything would probably just be a tease and amounts should be under .10" for almost all of us. The wave/trof in the upper levels of the atmosphere will blow through here, so we should see clearing skies on Thursday with highs near 50 and then another frost/freeze later this week. This should be followed by a moderating weekend next weekend.

Well that's about all I can think of for a Sunday afternoon. Enjoy the great weather through Tuesday.

Joe

Today is the 15th anniversary of the fabled October Surprise Snowstorm. this hit on this date in 1996 and it was a fascinating storm to watch as it initially started as rain then we saw a mix of rain and snow...then we transitioned to all snow then we started getting some thundersnows...it was a heavy wet snow at that and it created problems that for some lasted more than a week, especially in some neighborhoods that saw massive tree damage. Those trees, still full of leaves couldn't handle the weight of the wet snow that clung to everything. It was a mess with 100's of thousands without power. Here is a look at the radar from that memorable day.


Here are the maps as well from that afternoon...just fascinating as the core of the upper level storm came up from the SW and intensified, helping to chill down the atmosphere and change the cold rain over to snow.

Click on that graphic to make it larger....63

Meanwhile for the next several days around here, all will be quiet. The real issue to the forecast is just how warm it can get from Sunday-Tuesday before a strong front blows through TUE PM and ushers in much chillier weather for a couple of days. First the warmth ahead...

Today temperatures are being kept in check by extensive mid and upper level clouds, these will be with us for most of the day into this evening before moving away. This should allow more sunshine tomorrow to help pump those temperatures into the upper 70s or so. Monday though should be the warmest of the next 7+ days with highs soaring thanks to clear skies and SW winds that will increase throughout the day and night. This wind should provide ample mixing to the atmosphere allowing highs to soar to 80-85 or so. The record on Monday is 87° set back in 1939. That will need to be watched.

Our strong fall cold front will blow into the area sometime Tuesday PM. So potentially we'll be in the 75-80 range on Tuesday early PM then start to see a drop in the temperatures to finish off the day. That drop may continue well into WED-THU(?) as the front stalls to the south of here (Memphis to Little Rock) and moisture aloft runs over the frontal boundary. Right now it appears we'll be on the northern edge of any precip that organizes as passes well tot he south of the area...it's something to watch though as another piece of energy in the atmosphere will be moving through OK on THU...so potentially we may be looking at a couple of days with highs below 50. Then we'll moderate heading towards next weekend.

As far as how much rainfall we'll get...well that again remains very iffy. I did some research into the months of SEPT and OCT for precipitation and thus far we've picked up 1.29" of rain with another 8+ days to go for the month. The record driest SEPT/OCT is back in 1956 when we only had .97" of precip. That winter we were also lacking the snow with 13.7". In 1890 we had 1.21" in S/O with a winter snow total of 26.3" and in 1937 we had 1.36" in S/O with a winter snow total of 16.1". Just something to think about.

Joe

I won't bother to rehash everything I said in yesterdays blog concerning the chilly dry weather that has moved on top of us...1) Freeze warnings are in effect for tonight...and probably again tomorrow night... 2) IF you have plants that you can bring inside do so for the next couple of nights... 3) Dry weather is expected till at least Tuesday...if not longer...we'll have a 30% chance in there for Tuesday, but the that front may do something similar to what happened Monday. A few hundredths here and there. 4) Another chilly shot of air with a freeze is likely by WED of next week.

Last night I watched an interesting seminar that was held at the National Weather Association's annual meeting in Birmingham, AL. A group of close to 900 TV meteorologists/EMs/NWS/NOAA are attending and while there has been a heavy focus on severe weather, last night was reserved for the citizens impacted by the SE tornados. In particular we were looking at HOW the folks there reacted to the information that was being given to them, in addition we wanted to know how they were obtaining their information, what they did with the information and various other things.

There were roughly 100 or so citizens who were affected by the tornados in attendance. The goal was to survey these folks and then evaluate the results in a real-time setting. The citizens were asked about 40 questions and then had the ability of choosing their responses with a clicker. those results were available within 15 seconds of asking the question. It was very interesting to see. It by no means was perfect in terms of the true sampling of the population involved. For example you had to make the effort to go to this, also there is a high chance that citizens with a higher "weather geek" in them would attend this and then make their opinions known as opposed to folks who really don't pay attention to the weather events on a daily basis. Also this is a severe weather sensitive area, perhaps the responses would've been very different if this occurred in another part of the country. So there were some drawbacks to the way this was conducted. That though, to me was small in comparison to a treasure trove of information that the citizens proved in real time.

The media and the regular attendees of the conference were relegated to the back of the room and were told not to talk, remark or anything. They were strictly observers in the process and that's exactly what they did. The citizens spoke freely and they had some interesting things to say. I followed the whole thing and my colleagues were tweeting some of the vital details. I copy/pasted those tweets into an email that I sent to the FOX 4 Weather Team so that the team could get an idea about the importance of certain things...I decided to day, with little weather to talk about to share the responses from the Alabama citizens with our blog readers.

So here goes...what do you think?

54% heard through social media/internet.

67% of residents found out about a specific tornado warnings thru tv/radio

76% of residents say they relied on one or more local television station 2 follow the severe weather

13% of respondents said they got weather information from a source other than local TV

31% Relied on Multiple Local TV to follow severe wx, 24% just one station

11% of people in Alabama live tornado warning survey think terrain (mountains/valleys) protects them from a tornado.

When a tornado warning was issued only half took action, the other half looked confirmation, including looking at the sky.

43% of ppl after tornado warn checked sky...49% went to another source...39% called someone...51% took action

Panelist says a real person feels like they are looking out for them, saying TV met is important to them

Twitter & Facebook big source for warnings, especially Twitter during power outages

41% say urgency in broadcaster's voice...31% say wall-to-wall coverage is most helpful of TV severe wx coverage

What aspect of TV coverage is most important? 81% projected path and times.

81% say projected storm patch and times important to TV coverage of severe wx...45% say live video of tornado

97% of respondents says knowing proximity and path is much more important than other info during tornado.

Public feel they have personal connection w media vs 'faceless' NWS- must continue enhancing our relationship for event success!

TV is STILL the resounding choice for severe wx info -- graphics, trust in meteorologist, demeanor, etc is important.

On urgency in TV / Radio meteorologist's voice vs NWR, "Have you heard the voice that comes out of the NOAA Weather Radio?"

24% of residents that had a plan discussed it with their children prior to the tornado

50% of people took action after the tv weather person called out their community or when radar showed the storm close to them 

end survey. 

There wasn't a lot there that truly surprised me, considering the audience that took the survey...some of the tings concerning the media were interesting to me/us. Anyway I though you might be interested in some of the "inside baseball" stuff that we talk about amongst ourselves.

Joe

Well the much advertised shot of chillier air is certainly here as the day has taken a nice fall turn with readings so far only in the 50s and clouds hanging tough from KC eastwards. The latest satellite image is showing the back edge of the clouds holding tough just to the west of the metro. There have been some thin spots/breaks in the area...with more pronounced sunshine a county or two west of the metro. There are also some breaks in the clouds up tot he north of here...and when you put the pictures into motion, there is a disturbance in SW MO...

All the rain has shifted off towards E MO...there were some good rains out there yesterday, but for the metro the totals were really lacking. Officially KCI had .06" I believe...I live on the south side and I had 2 drops in a sprinkle. Some areas did have .50"+...but most didn't get close to those numbers.

The focus now becomes the cold air that will get reenforced over the next several hours with another shot of chilly air moving this way...this will bring another round of moisture in the form of low clouds into the area during the early evening hours. This will help to usher in the chilliest weather so far this fall season. Lows tomorrow will be down into the 30-35 range. then perhaps into the 20s on Thursday AM. The wind map play a role in the amount of frost we get...also the air will be really dry so we may be talking more freeze than frost unless those winds drop off.

As a result of all this the NWS has issued a Frost Advisory for the region. It's represented by all the counties you see in the lighter blue color.

This will happen again tomorrow night...with more Freeze warnings issued for tomorrow night.

As is typical for these types of airmasses, they come and they go and when they leave the milder air will return, and it's looking like another fabulous weekend is in store. You can see the reflection of the warmer in the temperatures @ 5000' over the latter part of the week.

The blues (chillier air) move away int he top left panel...(THU 7PM)...then we get into the milder air on FRI and then perhaps a small reinforcement of  cooler air on SAT...we'll be in WNW to NW flow for a while...so periodic disturbances in the flow will create wind shift lines that allow mild air to move in, then allow cooler air to move in. So the forecast will have some ups and downs but nothing really that extreme.

Concerning the dry weather...nothing really is expected from the rainfall standpoint for about another week again. The GFS has rain here, associated with a stronger cold front. Obviously from this far out that will be very debatable. The GFS is bringing in gulf moisture ahead of the front early next week. As a matter of fact some of the ensembles are turning this into a stronger storm, much like what we just went through.

On the subject of dry weather...thought we'd put the year into perspective concerning the dryness for parts of the country. Here is a map putting it in focus...

Notice that for MO this is really been a average to borderline, wetter than average year. For the KS side it's been dry(!) ranking, thus far as the 11th driest first 9 months of the year. Notice that in the past 117 years, TX and NM are their driest ever and OK is at the 2nd driest. LA is 4th and GA is 10th. The extremes are certainly there...with OH, PA, NY, VT and NJ at their wettest extreme. Also note the wetter extremes in the northern plains states.

All this is the backdrop for another haboob/dust storm that struck Lubbock yesterday. Here is some interesting video shot yesterday. Winds apparently were gusting to close to 75 MPH...you may remember that in the spring they often had strong winds. It will probably happen again this fall. the NWS in Lubbock has some great information on their website.

that's about it for today...looks like, aside from some temperature swings, another quiet period of weather is heading this way.

Joe

After a chilly start this AM with lows down into the 40s, clouds are filtering out the sunshine today. We've gotten to the time of the year where, when the sun is filtered by thicker cloud cover, it really will impact the temperatures. We were shooting for highs in the upper 60s, however that looks to be too high based on the cloud cover streaking through the region. The clouds are readily apparent on our visible satellite picture late this morning...

Those clouds are streaking from the WNW to the ESE...and should stay with us through the middle of the afternoon. We should break out into more sunshine from the NW to the SE as the day winds down. So highs should be in the low-middle 60s, with areas NW of KC seeing a better afternoon as opposed to areas SE of KC.

This cloud cover is a temporary blip to a mostly sunny weekend. Although by Sunday PM clouds will again move into the area...tomorrow though looks fantastic with highs in the 75-80 range and winds that won't be too bad at all. Sunday will see a slow transition to cooler weather as a decent but seasonable cold front moves our way. This front will shove the warmest air to the south of the area, where it will reside for awhile as our flow gradually gets chillier. The question is, as was alluded to yesterday is the potential for rainfall, and whether or not the bulk of the rain will be near us or potentially farther east on the MO side.

The front in question will slow to a crawl on Monday south of the I-44 corridor as a strong wave moves into the middle part of the country. This wave will help create a decent low level jet that will take moisture (limited at first) from the southern part of the country and push that moisture over the surface front. This creates rising air and should create showers/storms that would be nearby.

Here is the front on Sunday...

Here is the 5000' map on Monday showing the low level jet...

Should the wave be deeper, it would actually create a stronger low level jet and it would be more focused on our area...this would be much better for a decent rain here...

Should the wave be weaker and move more towards the N of the area...the rain would be lighter and less focused here.

Should it in fact rain, we'd be set up for a raw, breezy wet Monday Pm with temperatures struggling in the 50s.

Colder air continues to look more likely for Monday night through Thursday with frost/freeze/hard freeze becoming more likely by WED into THU AMs...so a brief shot of colder weather is likely before we warm-up again heading towards next weekend (which may be wonderful!)

That's it for the day...the new GFS is stronger with this MON scenario...so the rain/cooler weather is looking better to me...I've adjusted the forecast a pinch to reflect that...


Joe

I put together this graphic the other day and updated it today based on the paltry rainfall that was in the area yesterday. There were some areas that did get a good dousing, especially SE of the metro and also well to the north...but for KC proper it really didn't amount to a whole bunch. Many areas only had enough to dampen the streets and thus it continues to dry out even more...



Today is another picture perfect afternoon, although it is a bit on the breezy side. we're starting to see the winds gust to over 30 MPH...and we may see some wind gusts closer to 35 MPH before the afternoon is done. As expected we're in the lower 70s now...and a cool breezy night is ahead.

Nothing of note is expected to happen around here for the next several days, however over the weekend there will be a cold front moving through by Sunday. Ahead of the front the dry October air will respond to south winds on SAT allowing highs to pop into the middle 70s. It's too bad in a small way, because the warmest air aloft will be overhead Saturday night into Sunday AM...if things were about 12 hours faster, and the warm bubble was overhead during the day on SAT, our highs would surge well into the 80s. Alas though 75-79 will have to do for us...

Sunday will see a cold front barrel through during the AM hours...aloft the air will cool over rather nicely, at the surface through the coolest air may lag a bit behind the front, and with a warm start in the 50s we may be able to pop back into the 70-75 range in the PM.

There is a change to the data that is becoming somewhat interesting. All three of our longer range models are now creating rain here on Monday. It would be associated with a storm off the Pacific coast and more energy up towards Alaska that would move through the northern Rockies and then deepen/intensify on top of the area. Should this play out, and all 3 of our longer range models indicate it will...we may end up with a wet and raw Monday. We're talking highs only in the 40s and 50s with the potential for .25"+ of rainfall. So for the evening shows we're going to insert a chance of rain on Monday.

Whatever happens will happen and blow through, as the storm really intensifies off to the east of here...this will wrap in colder weather and the season's first widespread frost and, for some, a freeze is becoming more likely during the middle of the week. This is about the average time of the year for this as Pleasant hill has pointed out here....Odds right now favor WED AM (19th) as the best chance of this happening.

Dry weather is expected after whatever happens on Monday for the rest of next week.

Joe

If, and that's a biggie...if we're going to get some rain...it needs to happen between now and about 6PM or so for the metro...and the window may be actually smaller than that...areas E/SE of KC have a window will about 9PM or so as a cold front moves through the area.

While temperatures are in the middle 70s now, the atmosphere is getting unstable and a cold front is on the doorstep, typically all good ingredients for getting storms. We should be good to go right...well maybe not. This front will move through rather quickly...as a result we should see a wind shift towards the W/NW...this will not help the cause as what little convergence we have with the front coming through will be virtually eliminated. Also whatever little wave that came across the area this AM, left a pocket of more stable air on top of us. This is why we're seeing the sunshine now and may also be contributing to a lack of storm activity. There are some storms now approaching the Kirksville area. Any storms that may form this afternoon would have the potential for creating at least some hail, so we'll be watching radar rather carefully.

After our chances fade away later today, another dry period is expected till further notice as a series of weak fronts and WNW flow prevent us from seeing rainfall I think and the latest EURO has us essentially dry through the next 10 days...and IF the maps computer forecasts later next week are close to reality, it would be even longer than that. For those of us who want the rainfall...it's not a good look at all heading towards the end of the month.

The EURO is also very bullish on a quick shot of seasonably chilly air moving in sometime on Tuesday. This would be mainly pacific air with some minor influx of Canadian air. So we'll need to watch for the potential of some frosty weather perhaps NEXT Wednesday. Again that is only potential and the latest GFS doesn't have as chilly a look to it...but there is potential for our first widespread frost and for some a freeze during the middle of next week.

That's it for today...this lack of rainfall is really getting to be an issue...last fall there were also some very dry periods...2 15 day stretches of no rainfall and a 21 day stretch as well...and we saw what happened during the winter...gulp.

Joe