After a chilly start this AM with lows down into the 40s, clouds are filtering out the sunshine today. We've gotten to the time of the year where, when the sun is filtered by thicker cloud cover, it really will impact the temperatures. We were shooting for highs in the upper 60s, however that looks to be too high based on the cloud cover streaking through the region. The clouds are readily apparent on our visible satellite picture late this morning...

Those clouds are streaking from the WNW to the ESE...and should stay with us through the middle of the afternoon. We should break out into more sunshine from the NW to the SE as the day winds down. So highs should be in the low-middle 60s, with areas NW of KC seeing a better afternoon as opposed to areas SE of KC.

This cloud cover is a temporary blip to a mostly sunny weekend. Although by Sunday PM clouds will again move into the area...tomorrow though looks fantastic with highs in the 75-80 range and winds that won't be too bad at all. Sunday will see a slow transition to cooler weather as a decent but seasonable cold front moves our way. This front will shove the warmest air to the south of the area, where it will reside for awhile as our flow gradually gets chillier. The question is, as was alluded to yesterday is the potential for rainfall, and whether or not the bulk of the rain will be near us or potentially farther east on the MO side.

The front in question will slow to a crawl on Monday south of the I-44 corridor as a strong wave moves into the middle part of the country. This wave will help create a decent low level jet that will take moisture (limited at first) from the southern part of the country and push that moisture over the surface front. This creates rising air and should create showers/storms that would be nearby.

Here is the front on Sunday...

Here is the 5000' map on Monday showing the low level jet...

Should the wave be deeper, it would actually create a stronger low level jet and it would be more focused on our area...this would be much better for a decent rain here...

Should the wave be weaker and move more towards the N of the area...the rain would be lighter and less focused here.

Should it in fact rain, we'd be set up for a raw, breezy wet Monday Pm with temperatures struggling in the 50s.

Colder air continues to look more likely for Monday night through Thursday with frost/freeze/hard freeze becoming more likely by WED into THU AMs...so a brief shot of colder weather is likely before we warm-up again heading towards next weekend (which may be wonderful!)

That's it for the day...the new GFS is stronger with this MON scenario...so the rain/cooler weather is looking better to me...I've adjusted the forecast a pinch to reflect that...


Joe