If, and that's a biggie...if we're going to get some rain...it needs to happen between now and about 6PM or so for the metro...and the window may be actually smaller than that...areas E/SE of KC have a window will about 9PM or so as a cold front moves through the area.

While temperatures are in the middle 70s now, the atmosphere is getting unstable and a cold front is on the doorstep, typically all good ingredients for getting storms. We should be good to go right...well maybe not. This front will move through rather quickly...as a result we should see a wind shift towards the W/NW...this will not help the cause as what little convergence we have with the front coming through will be virtually eliminated. Also whatever little wave that came across the area this AM, left a pocket of more stable air on top of us. This is why we're seeing the sunshine now and may also be contributing to a lack of storm activity. There are some storms now approaching the Kirksville area. Any storms that may form this afternoon would have the potential for creating at least some hail, so we'll be watching radar rather carefully.

After our chances fade away later today, another dry period is expected till further notice as a series of weak fronts and WNW flow prevent us from seeing rainfall I think and the latest EURO has us essentially dry through the next 10 days...and IF the maps computer forecasts later next week are close to reality, it would be even longer than that. For those of us who want the rainfall...it's not a good look at all heading towards the end of the month.

The EURO is also very bullish on a quick shot of seasonably chilly air moving in sometime on Tuesday. This would be mainly pacific air with some minor influx of Canadian air. So we'll need to watch for the potential of some frosty weather perhaps NEXT Wednesday. Again that is only potential and the latest GFS doesn't have as chilly a look to it...but there is potential for our first widespread frost and for some a freeze during the middle of next week.

That's it for today...this lack of rainfall is really getting to be an issue...last fall there were also some very dry periods...2 15 day stretches of no rainfall and a 21 day stretch as well...and we saw what happened during the winter...gulp.

Joe