Well the winds are still blowing out there, and the temperatures are still well above average. Another day today with highs up into the 80s. We'll end up the day somewhere in the 80-85 range and likely that will continue on Saturday with perhaps a small drop in the highs on Sunday. While the month is still VERY young, we're running about 4.5 degrees above average for temperatures and should add to that for the next several days. Those averages will also be boosted by the very warm AM lows that we're expecting considering the average high/low for today is 70/49. As we've been saying now for the last 5 days, the rainfall situation for the weekend is not promising at all for this area. That's great for NASCAR Nation and all your outdoor plans, just be prepared for more windy weather through Sunday AM.

Concerning the rain chances, they are there, but probably not until later MON into TUE...at this point 30-40% chances seem best and I'm still not that optimistic it will do a lot to put a dent in the dry spell/ground that we're dealing with around this area. We'll get more into the rain potential and/or lack thereof of the totals over the weekend.

I thought today would be a good day to talk about the fall foliage that continues to appear before our eyes and what goes into the leaf changing. This is from NOAA...

A favorite American pastime in fall is to pack a picnic basket and set off with loved ones on a Sunday drive along one of the nation’s many scenic byways. It’s a time of year when people enjoy crisp cool weather and marvel at the transforming landscape as tree leaves turn from lush green to gorgeous shades of yellow, orange, red, purple and brown.
While we relish the opportunity to frolic in a big pile of freshly raked leaves, we don’t often think about the science behind why leaves change color and eventually fall from their branches. The answer may surprise you!

Recipe for Fabulous Foliage: Cool Nights and Sunny Days

Weather factors such as temperature, sunlight, precipitation and soil moisture influence fall color arrival, duration and vibrancy. According to United States National Arboretum, a wet growing season followed by a dry autumn filled with sunny days and cool, frostless nights results in the brightest palette of fall colors. Changes in weather can speed up, slow down or change the arrival time of fall’s colorful foliage. For example:

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

• Drought conditions during late summer and early fall can trigger an early “shutdown” of trees as they prepare for winter. This causes leaves to fall early from trees without reaching their full color potential.
• Freezing temperatures and hard frosts can kill the processes within a leaf and lead to poor fall color and an early separation from a tree.

How can you find the best place and time to see fall foliage in your area? NOAA’s National Weather Service regional forecast offices can provide you with a 7-day forecast of weather conditions, including the arrival times of different air masses, to help you determine the best location in your area for vibrant fall color.

True Colors Come From Inside 

Trees actually begin to show their true colors in autumn, and here’s why.  

The four primary pigments that produce color within a leaf are: chlorophyll (green); xanthophylls (yellow); carotenoids (orange); and anthocyanins (reds and purples). During the warmer growing seasons, leaves produce chlorophyll to help plants create energy from light. The green pigment becomes dominant and masks the other pigments. 

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

Trees must replenish the chlorophyll because sunlight causes it to fade over time. As days get shorter and nights become longer, trees prepare for winter and the next growing season by blocking off flow to and from a leaf’s stem. This process stops green chlorophyll from being replenished and causes the leaf’s green color to fade.

The fading green allows a leaf’s true colors to emerge, producing the dazzling array of orange, yellow, red and purple pigments we refer to as fall foliage.

Following the Feast of Fall Colors

Fall’s color “parade” varies from region to region and year to year, depending on weather conditions. For areas under calm and dry high pressure, cool nights and sunny days can lengthen fall color displays. Cold or warm fronts can produce strong winds and heavy rain that cause leaves to fall off trees more rapidly.

Now here is some information from the folks @ the MO Dept of Conservation if your interested in doing a little leaf peeping over the next couple of days...

Northwest Region, including St. Joseph and Chillicothe
We have mostly yellows, plus deep purples in Virginia creeper, poison ivy and white ash. The bright purple of creeper enwraps the upper limbs of yellow walnut trees—a striking combination. The upland forests are half colored with ash, hickory and cherry. Along the loess hills and Missouri River floodplain near St. Joseph, some sugar maples are turning yellow and orange, but the same leaves are also turning brown. The oaks and maples will turn, but this year they won’t be the brightest, and the color won’t last long, thanks to the current dry conditions. The predicted lack of rain in the next few weeks may slow or dull these species. But the cool nights and sunshine so far have brought out the reds and purples. The Missouri River hills are a great place to see fall color (remember I-29 is closed from Rock Port, Missouri, to Council Bluffs, Iowa). (Updated Oct. 5, 2011.)

Kansas City Region
Scarlets and purples are coming on strong in our region and are especially striking in white ash, red and sugar maples, dogwoods and sumac. In recent weeks, conditions have been right for trees to produce the reddish pigments—bright sunny days and cool nights. Yellows are also becoming more noticeable on trees such as honey locust and hackberry. How long and strong colors remain will depend on the weather. Although not in the forecast, gentle rains would enhance the colors and allow them to stick around longer. Colors should peak in our area around the middle of October. For scenic fall color drives in our region, try Highways 45 and 224 along the Missouri River. For hiking, try Big Buffalo Creek and Burr Oak Woods Conservation Areas; Maple Woods and White Alloe Creek Natural Areas; Knob Knoster State Park; and Forest Hills and Mount Washington cemeteries. (Updated Oct. 5, 2011.)

Central Region, including Columbia, Jefferson City and Lake of the Ozarks
Fall color is cranking up in Central Missouri this week. Sugar maples exposed to full sunlight are turning orange and red. In the understory, sugar maples that are more shaded are turning yellow. Hickories are turning yellow as well. Sumacs are red this week and Virginia creeper is staying red, too. Dogwoods are red and purple in the understory. Ashes are also reddish purple; they are prominent in the overstory. Oaks are still mostly green, giving forested hillsides an overall green look with spots of color from trees other than oaks, such as ash, hickory and maple. (Updated Oct. 5, 2011.)

Southwest Region, including Springfield, Branson and Joplin
The fall color in Southwest Missouri is improving quickly with the deepening purples of ash trees and the red and orange of maples in towns. Sumac is starting to fade. Some of the more consistent color is in Carthage. (Updated Oct. 7, 2011.)

We'll get you another report next week concerning the changing leafs this Autumn...have a great weekend!

Joe