Today is the 15th anniversary of the fabled October Surprise Snowstorm. this hit on this date in 1996 and it was a fascinating storm to watch as it initially started as rain then we saw a mix of rain and snow...then we transitioned to all snow then we started getting some thundersnows...it was a heavy wet snow at that and it created problems that for some lasted more than a week, especially in some neighborhoods that saw massive tree damage. Those trees, still full of leaves couldn't handle the weight of the wet snow that clung to everything. It was a mess with 100's of thousands without power. Here is a look at the radar from that memorable day.


Here are the maps as well from that afternoon...just fascinating as the core of the upper level storm came up from the SW and intensified, helping to chill down the atmosphere and change the cold rain over to snow.

Click on that graphic to make it larger....63

Meanwhile for the next several days around here, all will be quiet. The real issue to the forecast is just how warm it can get from Sunday-Tuesday before a strong front blows through TUE PM and ushers in much chillier weather for a couple of days. First the warmth ahead...

Today temperatures are being kept in check by extensive mid and upper level clouds, these will be with us for most of the day into this evening before moving away. This should allow more sunshine tomorrow to help pump those temperatures into the upper 70s or so. Monday though should be the warmest of the next 7+ days with highs soaring thanks to clear skies and SW winds that will increase throughout the day and night. This wind should provide ample mixing to the atmosphere allowing highs to soar to 80-85 or so. The record on Monday is 87° set back in 1939. That will need to be watched.

Our strong fall cold front will blow into the area sometime Tuesday PM. So potentially we'll be in the 75-80 range on Tuesday early PM then start to see a drop in the temperatures to finish off the day. That drop may continue well into WED-THU(?) as the front stalls to the south of here (Memphis to Little Rock) and moisture aloft runs over the frontal boundary. Right now it appears we'll be on the northern edge of any precip that organizes as passes well tot he south of the area...it's something to watch though as another piece of energy in the atmosphere will be moving through OK on THU...so potentially we may be looking at a couple of days with highs below 50. Then we'll moderate heading towards next weekend.

As far as how much rainfall we'll get...well that again remains very iffy. I did some research into the months of SEPT and OCT for precipitation and thus far we've picked up 1.29" of rain with another 8+ days to go for the month. The record driest SEPT/OCT is back in 1956 when we only had .97" of precip. That winter we were also lacking the snow with 13.7". In 1890 we had 1.21" in S/O with a winter snow total of 26.3" and in 1937 we had 1.36" in S/O with a winter snow total of 16.1". Just something to think about.

Joe