Spring is almost "officially" here. As of this writing we're about 4+ hours away. It starts @ 6:21 CDT tonight.

As if on cue, Mother Nature has swapped one cool airmass out and replaced it with another, warmer and more moist airmass. Temperatures went up all night and by daybreak were in the middle 50s. Now we're approaching 75 degrees, a welcome change. With the warmth comes some gulf moisture. Dewpoints, which yesterday were in the 30s now are in the mid to upper 50s with strong S/SSW winds of 15-30 MPH. All going according to plan. Now the question is whether or not the increasing heat and instability can create any T/Storms. For the next 6 hours I think the chances are extremely low. While the heat is there (to a March degree) and the dewpoints are there...55+ is acceptable, there is really no trigger nearby at this point to spark convection. There is one though not far away and that is a cold front which will sneak into the region tonight. Here is the front now...up to the NW of KC...

The thing is...any storms that can fire up do have the potential of becoming severe...the SPC has parts of the region under a SLIGHT risk (sidenote: I had a humerous at times discussion with one of the leaders of the SPC FRI and SAT about the word SLIGHT. Another you make sense but to change things in the Government is nearly impossible type things) but I digress...

The main issue aloft right now, and for the next few hours while the instability is greatest is that we're CAPPED...temperatures aloft are close to +5 at 10,000. This layer of air will cool down a few degrees tonight however so it does bear watching as the front edges into N MO and NE KS.

It should stall close to or north of the I-70 corridor tomorrow AM and then retreat back to the north on MON PM as a warm front placing the metro squarely in this same airmass. As I mentioned yesterday there is a bust potential to the highs tomorrow is this doesn't work out as I expect it to. There also maybe somewhat of a 10-15+ degree spread from N>S tomorrow PM depending on the progress of the front's retreat.

Then we set up a potential risk of severe weather on Tuesday as a stronger storm will organize and eventually drag a cold front through the region.

The SPC is watching this day, however as with most March set-ups there are always questions on instability, clouds timiing etc...

These are the probabilities of severe weather, as a SLIGHT risk has been put out for our region...

Here is the NAM forecast for 7PM Tuesday evening...showing an impressive Low across E NE, with a dry line/warm front/occluded front called a TRIPLE POINT.

Near and just to the E/ESE of here is where one needs to watch for severe weather. During certain situations the atmosphere can be very volatile, especially later into the spring season.

Colder weather will follow this storm later in the week, especially THU through SAT. Need to watch that because there should be some sort of wave moving out through the Rockies sometime on FRI.

Have a great week...I'll visit with you again later in the week.

Joe