Well we haven't really had to contend with snow in a couple of weeks around here...and Mother Nature apparently figured that was enough. So as a result on a day that we Sprung Forward with our clocks, we'll turn back the calendar a bit for the snow scenarios to come back into the region and this one is going to be a toughie to figure out in terms of the amounts and locations. I'm pretty convinced at this point that it's going to snow, and there will be a rather significant period of time that we can get a wintry mix going as well.

Our storm is out in the Western Plains now and is on the move. It will be a fast mover, caught in the flow and as a result it'll hit fast and be gone by tomorrow AM sometime. The atmosphere closest to the ground is pretty chilly now with temperatures under performing expectations somewhat today and readings now are only in the lower 40s. The air at the surface is pretty dry as well with dewpoints int he 20s and NE surface winds continuing to feed in the dry air. All this will have to be overcome at some point for us to get something significant which is doable as the storm kicks out closer to us tonight and the atmosphere, overall, gets more saturated.

As that process occurs the lower 5000' will cool down. This was explained last night on the blog and on the news and will get explained tonight at 5PM as well with a special animation. This process though could take awhile to happen and we may still be waiting for some significant flakes for quite some time tonight. There is also the possibility that there will be too much dry air for anything really meaningful to happen. The latest RUC isn't that impressive really through midnight or so. While there is some light precip going here...the bulk to to our SW and looks to pass to the south of the metro but a sizable margin. Another short-termm model however, the HRRR is more robust with the precip along the I-70 corridor.

The NAM gives us some impressive numbers, well in the 4-8" range, and shows the characteristic mesoscale banding features that will make totals vary widely from one county to another across the region. This scenario, should it pan out will be next to impossible to figure out until the snow actually unfolds, so the later shows will be tough to forecast for. Here is the NAM snowfall forecast...

Now the GFS forecast

Notice how the NAM picks out the contrasting snow bands.

The NWS in Pleasant Hill has issued a Winter Weather Advisory as a first step in what could be an accumulating heavy wet snow that would impact the AM rush. Perhaps harder in parts of the metro compared to other parts...the counties affected are highlight in blue.

At this point, my forecast is for 2"+ across a wide area near and around KC. I'll attempt to get more refined and perhaps try and forecast where one of these "bands" of potentially heavier snow will fall. Again this is going to be a very tough forecast for myself as well as my colleagues so there will be a bust potential (as there always is, but especially with this system).

After this system rapidly leaves us tomorrow AM, we should warm into the 50s on TUE...60s on WED and well into the 70s on THU for St Pats Day! Somewhat cooler weather is expected next weekend...but perhaps still above average.

That's it for now...have a great week.

Joe