Saturday, March 5, 2011

Winter is over!!!! OK not really, at least according to the calendar. Spring doesn't start for another couple of weeks or so, but from a meteorological standpoint we look at the seasons a little differently. For statistical simplicity we look at the seasons in 3 full month intervals. So for example, Winter is DEC/JAN/FEB. Spring is MAR/APR/MAY, Summer is JUN/JUL/AUG and Fall is SEP/OCT/NOV. It's kind of strange but a heck of a lot easier to do calculations.

So let's talk about the winter that was...the fine folks from Pleasant Hill, MO have put together a winter recap...here are some of the maps...

First showing the temperatures...notice all the below average lows throughout the winter season. For the season overall, low temperatures were some 3.3 below average while highs were 3 degrees below average, so when calculated and rounded off the season was 3.2 degrees below average. Last winter was some 3.9 degrees below average...so it wasn't as cold this winter as last...but still cold enough!

From a precip standpoint...it was slightly drier than average by (.07") but was VERY snowy with 36.3" (some 21" above the average of 15" from DJF. This placed the winter season as the second snowiest in KC weather history. Here is the complete rundown.


Nationally, it was colder than average for a good part of the country...take a look at the last 3 months...


From a precipitation standpoint, rain and melted snow...it was dry for most of the southern tier of states. With VERY dry conditions through the OK Panhandle, western TX, the Big Bend area and southern NM and AZ. The wettest area was the upper midwest and parts of the western states.


Now considering how poorly our winter forecast was @ FOX 4, yes I remember by the way. Since we don't forecast nationally, I though we'd look and see the verification of the national winter forecasts issued back in late October for the DEC-FEB time span.

First from a temperature standpoint...


Now from a precipitation standpoint...


The temperature forecast was just plain bad for most of the country except for a small part of the US/Canadian border area and parts of the southern Rockies.

The precipitation forecast was considerably better for the Southern US and exceptional for the western part of TX and parts of the SW. The OH Valley forecast wasn't that good in terms of the expectation of above average precipitation.

So compared to the winter last year...lets see how the maps line up...from a temperature standpoint...





And now from a precipitation standpoint.



Precip wise, pretty dramatic reversal for the Southern tier of the country (odds weigh heavily for the La Nina enhanced weather pattern this past winter for the big contribution here).

Our sensible weather has another storm heading this way MON-WED...temperatures should moderate Monday with clouds with readings near 50 or so. then we're setting up for a chilly rain on Tuesday with highs back into the mid 40s or so. Later next week looks great with a run towards 65 or even 70(?) possible on Friday with no major dumps of cold air from Canada expected for the next 10 days.

joe

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