The weather blog this morning will be a mish mash of all sorts of weather phenomena, from the searing heat yesterday to the tropics to severe weather...let's start with the searing heat.

It was impressive...KCI hit 107, the hottest since August of 1984...Downtown hit 109! Elsewhere Gardner hit 111 and Topeka hit 112 (record)...Wichita hit 111, Chanute 110 and Salina 109, all new records...Chanute's went back to the dust bowl days. Topeka's 112 was their 4th highest ever recorded and marked the 21st day this year they've been 100 or above (average is about 7). Their highest recorded temperature was 114 set back in 1936. Counting various small stations around the country that report the daily weather, yesterday there were some 133 records broken. However some of these stations have a period of record keeping of "only" 30-40 years which heavily skews the results since the period of time is so short. Once those "shorter" stations are eliminated the numbers come down...first ALL the records...

Now notice what happens when the "shorter" period of record stations are eliminated...

The results are significantly different, with the number of new records down to 39 from 133.

Regardless it was a VERY hot day and one that came close to eclipsing ALL-TIME record highs...

We've been on the edge of the furnace for quite some time, in some sense we've been saved by the extent of the heavy rainfall through the springtime...however it has started to dry out now, and one look around the area reveals, with the exception of N MO that the grasses, trees, landscaping is getting VERY stressed. This cuts down on the evapotranspiration that occurs helping to reduce our dewpoints...but drier air heats up faster and more efficiently than moist humid air...so that combined with a perfect SW to WSW wind yesterday allowed the heat to move in with a vengeance.

What we need to help reduce the temperatures for awhile, and allow things to start greening up again is rainfall...is rainfall and that, while promising is not a slam dunk in our immediate future...latest model data is generating rain but the amoounts are very much in question for the KC metro area...the heaviest may be to our north again, up towards N MO and NE KS...this of course is all very iffy as we'll be tracking various weak disturbances that will running along the periphery of our heat dome that is being shoved off to the SW of the region placing us into a NW Flow, which typically is better for cool fronts to move through and also for rain chances. In these situations during the summer, you can get some real heavy rainfall over a period of time. So the potential is there, whether or not it comes together for areas from KC southwards remains to be seen for now.

Shifting to the tropics, where Emily is churning it's way through the eastern Carribean. It's south of the Dominican Republic now and is maintaining winds of 45-50 MPH. The forecast is for the system to have it's ups and downs for the next couple of days then perhaps intensify as it moves off the SE part of the USA. There is still some model discrepancies so the track heading towards the weekend is still a bit uncertain. Here is the latest from the TPC...

Finally the SPC have come out with their final tornado count for the month of April. The preliminary count was about 860, and we knew that after they went through and eliminated the multiple reports of the same tornados that that number would be lower, the issue was how much lower? The FINAL count was 753, which actually is a bit higher than I though it would be...this though still is easily a record for the most tornados in any month and is almost 4x's higher than the 3 yr average!

Have a great day...you'll notice the humidity much more today compared to yesterday, although the temperatures should be about 15 degrees less hot...still above average though!

joe


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I usually wish I was working on days of significant weather, today is one of those days. I was actually thinking about playing some golf later today but was overruled by my golf partner, so instead I decided to write a quick weather blog about the significance of the heat.

Now some would say the heat is nothing unusual, it's summer after all in KC...to ann extent that would be correct. However the potential for today is certainly very interesting and to me at least it points out how weather can be interesting/fascinating yet in a sense we're talking about the addition of a few more degrees compared to yesterday. Yesterday we were 100-105 and while interesting it was just a just another hot summer day this summer. Today though as we cross the 105 barrier, then things, statistically, get far more interesting to me.

The last time we were 106 was August 21st, 2001...
The last time we were 107+ was August 29th 1984 (109)

The record today is 104 set back in 1934 and tied in 1987

The ALL TIME record is 113 set back on August 14th, 1936 during the dust bowl days. (btw I just started reading a book about the dust bowl called "The Worst Hard Time"

I talked over the weekend about the likelihood that we would have highs between 105-110 today. The reasoning being that with SW winds ahead of a cold front, which we haven't had a lot of lately, a perfect storm, if you will , would be setting up. The furnace like heat that's been gripping areas to the SW from Wichita to Manhattan to Emporia and then farther SWards through Oklahoma City and Tulsa and then down through Texas, would move towards us. One key to that forecast of mine over the weekend was watching what happened in Emporia. They hit 107 on Sunday and that to me was telling. If they could get that high, we could do it as well...all we needed was a SW wind and today that's happening. We may still have a bit more moisture in the soil, especially N/NE of the metro compared to them, but from the stateline westwards we should be primed for a record high tody. Anytime you set record highs in August, that is pretty impressive in my book, hence the weather blog on my day off! As expected, today will be the hottest day for the entire summer...so I guess it's downhill from here right!

So as of 11AM we're already up to 97 @ KCI and 100 @ Gardner and Lawrence...some areas this afternoon will get close to, maybe exceed 110 especially from Downtown SW along I-35 and West along I-70 towards the Topeka area.

Here is the weather map from the 11AM hour...there is some relief showing up off to the NW of here in the form of that cold front...we should be some 15 degrees cooler tomorrow, as opposed to today so that's good.

The RED numbers are the temperatures.

It should be noted that after the front moves through tonight, the dewpoints which are dropping now and creating more desert like heat, will again surge upwards and it should be VERY muggy tomorrow despite the "less hot" weather.


Since I am blogging today, I also want to touch on Emily that is meandering through the Eastern Carribean. Wind are holding @ 40 MPH so it's a minimal Tropical Storm. The main concern for the next couple of days is the rainfall potential, especially for Haiti. There are still 600,000 folks living in tents there and with torrential rains possible and landslides likely because of deforestation, there is real concern about the residents of that impoverished island.

It's expected to intensify slowly and vary in intensity for the next few days as it interacts with some of the mountainous islands through that area. Here is the track forecast...

Obviously the Bahamas and FL will be on the lookout for this later in the week.

On the flip side of all this is the expanding and costly drought gripping the southern plains...now estimated at costing the nation $1.5 billion. 18% of the country is experiencing extreme to exceptional drought right now.. Records of this type of measurement began 12 years ago...so 1988 and 1980 aren't included in the historical reference.

No relief is expected down across the southern plains anytime soon...

Finally a sign that the seasons will be changing soon...for the first time in 3 months, tonight the sun will set in Barrow Alaska...@ 1:55 AM tomorrow the sun will go down...then promptly come back up @ 3:12 AM...what's fascinating up there is that they lose a ton of daylight per day now...and by the end of the month they are more than 8 hours shorter on daylight as opposed to today!

Stay cool and thanks for reading!

Joe

The heat continues to bake the region and there is no real definite sign of it ending although there will be a slow drop in the highs ending towards the end of next week.

The hottest looks to be on Tuesday as highs should soar to between 101-106 through the region, downtown which so far as maxed out @ 103 may eclipse that and this should turn into the hottest day of the summer I think. Hopefully from there it's downhill but there are no real serious cold fronts on the horizon. What we need is some rainfall. Here is the way the month of July has gone...

Specifically for the area the numbers are generally in the 1-3" range...well below average...

KCI: 2.26" (-2.04")
Downtown: 3.28"
Olathe: .33"(!)
St Joseph: NA
Lees Summit: 1.85"
Gardner: .88"
Topeka: 1.56" (-2.15")
Pleasant Hill: 1.56"
Sedalia: 1.50" (-2.82")

As is typical, there were some areas that had healthy rainfall for the month, and that would be N MO which really cashed in their chips FRI-SAT...Chillicothe has had 4.6" most of which occurred yesterday. Goodness knows there have been drier July's. It happens in the summer in the midwest and since we typically rely on t/storms for rainfall in the summer months, we all know how scattered by nature that activity could be.

The month will also end some 4.7+ degrees above average. June was 2.4 degrees above average so for the summer thus far we're running some 3.6 degrees above average. For those who may remember August last year was brutal around these parts with temperatures, in relation to average 4.6 degrees above average. So in essence for as bad as last August was here, this July is worse (again in relation to average).

Thus far, in downtown KC we've had a bunch of days 100+. How do we stack up, through yesterday compared to some other cities...take a look and the graphic. AS of this writing Tulsa and Wichita have already hit 100 today with OKC not far behind and Topeka is at 99 degrees.

Farther south where the drought gets a lot worse, Dallas is on the verge of tacking on another day with highs 100+ in a row (97 as of 1PM). This graphic is through yesterday.

Hey before I go...a big thank you to all the FBer's this AM who helped out and filled in the joke line...It's So Hot...here are some of the good ones, feel free to check out the FOX 4 KC Morning News page for some other good ones that were borderline tasteful, those I thought were a riot.

IT'S SO HOT THAT...

Its soo hot outside, my grass is cutting itself
It's so hot, the dragon flies are breathing fire.
It's so hot, if I go outside I'm going to render down in my own fat.
Its so hot that Satan was vowing to behave so he wouldn't end up going to Kansas.
It's so HOT I saw 2 trees fighting over a dog.
It's so hot...Paris Hilton has applied to trademark the phrase "That's hot"
It's so hot the cows are giving evaporated milk.
the new saying is "when KC freezes over"
Its so hot I had to wear a bullet proof vest while tending the corn field today...
its so hot, we had to change the forecast from heat wave to heat tsunami.
my cookies cooked in the car
It's so hot the trees are following the dogs around !
It's so hot people that have had plastic surgery are melting.
It's so hot, William Shatner's toupe fused to his scalp...
I'm ovulating poached eggs....(2nd favorite)

AND FINALLY MY FAVORITE...

It's so hot my hot flashes give me the chills! Thx Judy
Stay cool one and all!

Joe

Well it's been an eventful 24 hours, with heavy rainfall up towards the N of the KC area and some scattered, at best, showers around the metro...now things are settling down and starting to warm-up again with readings in the middle 80s as of this writing and heading back up to near 90 before the day is done. This will be the "cool" day for the next 5-6 days I think as another surge of summer heat heads this way, maxing out on Tuesday asI talked about on the air this AM.

The rainfall last night and this AM was impressive across N MO, anywhere from 1-3" or so fell up there, seemed to be maxed out along the 36 highway corridor region...take a look at the ground truth numbers from the NWS...

Click on that map to make it larger...

Sadly while there was some rain in the metro this AM, it was rather scattered and also missed most of the reporting stations...so the dry spell goes on for another day...and really there is no appreciable rain in site for awhile, although opportunities will develop as the week moves along.

The heat will once again become the big issue as our dome of heat once again expands back up to the north. Emporia, as I write is 93 now...and aloft our temperatures above us today would support highs near 100. So as we erode this rain/cloud cooled air today/tonight, we should once again soar tomorrow. While 100 may be a push in downtown KC, by Monday that should not be an issue and I'm forecasting 100+ for Monday and Tuesday. We may see a front slide into the area later Tuesday PM bringing about a 5-15 degree reduction in highs for WED...along with the opportunity for some scattered storms although the cap may be too strong for much activity, especially later TUE...

The tropics are still somewhat active, there is another system that is out in the central Atlantic that may turn into a depression later today or tomorrow...should it be upgraded to a storm, her name would be Emily.

The system has a 70% chance of formation in the next 48 hours...

Speaking of the tropics, what's left of Tropical Storm Don is really next to nothing in far southern TX near Del Rio. There's more rain and heavier rain in MO right now than there is with "Don". I've seen dozens of these type of storms come ashore, but Don is the first one that I've seen that literally fell apart as it did so. The rainfall become some scattered that I think Corpus Christi had .02". There were some beefier totals around Brownsville but it was disappointing to say the least for an area of the country that really needed the rainfall. Interesting to note that the increased moisture and some cloudcover may break a streak in the Dallas area this afternoon. As of this writing they are at 94 degrees, they've had 28 straight days with highs 100+

It'll be interesting if they can get to that "magic" number today. If so then the next several days are virtual locks as the heat expands across the southern plains states. Waco has had 30 straight days of 100+. Right now they're at 93 degrees.

Have a great rest of the day...

Joe

I'm sitting here in the A/C, looking outside at the grass which is going to get mowed for the last time in a long time this afternoon. It's sure looking brown out there. We missed out on the heavy rain from Tuesday night...I got about .10" at my house while many areas about 5-10 miles north of me saw 2-2.5". So I'll probably end up getting the sprinkler out tomorrow and giving the yard at least a little drink of water. I'm not big on watering, and when the heat/humidity hit last summer at about this time the grass got fried and between me not watering and some sort of fungus that hit so many yards in the area it wasn't a pretty picture out there.

Temperatures are near 90 now and with dewpoints that are in the middle 70s+ the heat index is near 103-105 in spots...and again this will be the rule for the next 7 days or so. The latest GFS shows perhaps a weak front edging into the N MO area next weekend before falling apart and moving back to the north, essentially keeping us in the heat for the next 12+ days.

So with all that said...what exactly is a heat wave...you might be surprised that there really is now concrete definition for specific parts of the country...let's start with the definition from the Glossary Of Meteorology.

heat wave—(Also called hot wave, warm wave.) A period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and usually humid weather. To be a heat wave such a period should last at least one day, but conventionally it lasts from several days to several weeks. 

In 1900, A. T. Burrows more rigidly defined a “hot wave” as a spell of three or more days on each of which the maximum shade temperature reaches or exceeds 90°F. More realistically, the comfort criteria for any one region are dependent upon the normal conditions of that region. In the eastern United States, heat waves generally build up with southerly winds on the western flank of an anticyclone centered over the southeastern states, the air being warmed by passage over a land surface heated by the sun. See also hot wind.

Now going by that definition, every summer day in these parts would be considered a heat wave. So that definition really won't cut it for the KC area at least.

From wikipedia...here is the definition courtesy of the World Meteorological Society....


The definition recommended by the World Meteorological Organization is when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 Celsius degrees (9 Fahrenheit degrees), the normal period being 1961–1990.^[3]
I like that one a bit better because you can quantify it a bit since it connects a definitive number in relation to average...so by using this definition, and checking averages...it would need to be 98+ degrees 5+ days in a row for us to fit that criteria...but certainly a brief check of the FOX 4 Weather Almanac would show that we certainly had some decent heat waves over the past 5+ years!

Also from wikipedia comes the various meanings o various parts of the country...

In the United States, definitions also vary by region; however, a heat wave is usually defined as a period of at least two or more days of excessively hot weather.^[5] In the Northeast, a heat wave is typically defined as three consecutive days where the temperature reaches or exceeds 90 °F (32 °C), but not always as this is ties in with humidity levels to determine a heat index threshold.^[6] The same does not apply to drier climates. A heat storm is a Californian term for an extended heat wave. Heat storms occur when the temperature reaches 100 °F (38 °C) for three or more consecutive days over a wide area (tens of thousands of square miles). The National Weather Service issues heat advisories and excessive heat warnings when unusual periods of hot weather are expected.
This also has merit...a heat wave in Phoenix, considering their average high is in the 107 would have be to well above that number...however a heat wave in N Michigan where the average high in Marquette now is 77 degrees is something else...again though there is no qualifier number.

The folks at NOAA really don't have a quantitative definition. You would think they would...I google searched and found some generic stuff...then even read through a conference report where they asked that very question...here is a brief recap of one of their group reports...this is from 1996.

Click on that to make it more readable...basically they decided that further review was necessary to define what a heat wave was.

So really there isn't one quantitative definition that is widely used for the definition of a heat wave...while I like that 9+ degree above average thought...you would have to quantify the time period that it can be used...temperatures 10-15 degrees above average in April are usually a welcome thing...even into the beginning of May...perhaps something that starts on June 1st...along the lines of 10+ degrees above average for at least a set period of time would work. NOAA though does have a point...suppose the temperature is 87 but the dewpoint are closer to 75...then you have the whole heat index thing to worry and contend with. It's valid thought as well, while last mid to late July wasn't crazy hot, the dewpoint were near to above 80 giving us a heat index of close to 110 to 115 for various days...it was awful. OK so then let's run with using a Heat Index based criteria...well then that sort of eliminates the Desert SW from a lot of the criteria where a temperature of 115 and low dewpoints, as is common, actually reduces the heat index compared to the temperature!

It's a frustrating thing for me since I'm into the numbers and trying to quantify things.

Regardless, stay cool and remember all the heat safety thoughts that are out there...

Joe

As expected it's getting hotter by the hour out there right now...as temperatures are well into the 90s with some areas over on the KS side starting to flirt with 100 near the Topeka area....factoring in dewpoints of 70-75 and you get heat indices near 105....yuck and a great day to be inside with the A/C going that's for sure...also a good day to remember your heat safety rules...so far I believe 5 people have died in the KC area from heat related issues this year...something to think about...

The 1PM obs show a chaotic wind field in the region...with not a lot of wind out there. so while we''re 92 @ KCI and 94 Downtown, I wonder how much more we can go up this afternoon. The lighter winds were a factor in my temperature forecasting today. A stronger S/SW wind would allow highs to creep towards 100...regardless it's rough out there!

What you see below is a pie chart...thanks to our uber intern Kristy, I'll be showing this at various times for awhile...basically it will show a look at temperatures going back to the 1880s. In this case it's every day's high temps going back to 1888 for a period of 7/8-7/14...

The colors represent the number of time temperatures fell into a certain range. For example the slim color blue at the top represent the number of times we had highs in the 60s. The Purple color represents the number (%) of times highs were in the 70s (9%). The Orange represents the 80s (47%) the Red shows the 90s (38%) and the brown shows the 100s (6%). So basically during this time period, judging from the past 85% of the time we were in the 80s/90s. What's interesting is that there is a better chance of us having highs in the 70s as opposed to the 100s (9% vs 6%). It just shows you how tough it is to get there...my suspicion is that it does get easier to get to 100 as the next few weeks role along...climatalogically it makes sense. If you remember I showed a chart like this a couple of weeks ago showing the chance of hitting 100 as about 4%...so the numbers are increasing as we get deeper into the summer around here.

Speaking of which...look at this map below...showing the high temperatures YESTERDAY (SAT) in Oklahoma...crazy hot down there. virtually every city had highs above 105...and I believe hearing that was the first time OK saw statewide highs all above 100 in the last 15 years or so...very impressive. Today Oklahoma City is again above 100...for the 12th day in a row and the 21st time this year. I think the record is 50 for a year set back during that crazy hot summer of 1980.

Looking forward...there will be storm chances developing TUE night into WED...the GFS keeps the chance into THU as well...at this point I'll keep my chance going for WED and keep the other days dry. Whatever minor break we get in the heat will not last but a couple of days as it scorches again towards next weekend with essentially this same airmass circulating right back at us. The GFS does show the ridge retorgrading a bit towards in about 12 days (gulp) allowing for some relief...

Stay cool and drink that water...

Joe

Well there really isn't much to say about our weather...everything that I talked about this week is coming about as expected...it's slowly getting hotter out there, SE winds will turn towards the SSE tomorrow, so low to mid 90s seem assured. Monday we may go up a bit more. As a result of this a HEAT ADVISORY is in effect for the region and that probably will get upgraded. The modelling is shooting for highs near or above 100. I don't at this point buy those numbers...the NAM has been running 3-5 degrees to high on the warmest days so far this year. For all the reasons mentioned yesterday and also a lack of strong mixing (not that much wind and more of a southerly component tomorrow) I'm max out the highs around 96 I think.

So with all this heat...what a perfect day to talk about snow...there I said it...a 4 letter word that probably brings a chill up your spine, perhaps though with the forecast that's a good thing...I saw this from the NPS a few weeks ago...and while that amount of snow isn't there anymore...it's fascinating nonetheless...so much snow out there this past winter...they were still snow skiing @ the Lake Tahoe ski areas this past weekend! Take a look at some of these pictures...this again is from the NPS...

Deep and persistent snow levels at higher elevations on Mount Rainier will delay the opening of the road to Sunrise until at least July 8. Park road crews, using bulldozers and a rotary snow blower, are working daily to remove snow from the road and expect to reach the parking area at Sunrise early next week. Once access is available, additional park and Washington Conservation Corps crews will be brought into the area to shovel out buildings and activate the power and water systems.     Since July 1, 2010, a total of 907 inches of snow have fallen at Paradise. The record for the park is 1,122 of snowfall during the 1971-72 season.  Cool and wet temperatures have persisted into June, delaying snow melt in the upper elevations and slowing snow removal operations that began in March. Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) road crews have faced similar deep snow conditions on Highway 410, delaying the opening of Chinook Pass on the east side of the park. WSDOT’s projected opening for Chinook Pass is June 23 at 10:00 AM. Persistent snow conditions will also delay the opening of the White River Campground until July 1. The road to the campground is open and accessible.  Mowich Road opening operations will be delayed until snow removal at Paradise and Sunrise are completed. All other park roads and areas are open. Travelers are advised to check the park’s website prior to a visit to get updated information on road and trail conditions, services and activities. Mount Rainier National Park’s website is at: www.nps.gov/mora. For photos of current snow conditions at Sunrise, scroll down to the bottom of the page. Please check the WSDOT website, www.wsdot.wa.gov,for current updates on all highway and pass conditions in Washington State.   NPS Photo A photo of the Sunrise Visitor Center covered in snow taken June 9, 2011, compared to a similar photo of the Visitor Center from July 2010.   NPS Photo A photo of the Sunrise Visitor Center from the southwest taken on June 9, 2011, demonstrating the snow conditions compared to a similar photo taken July 2009.   NPS Photo The Sunrise bathroom building is completely covered by snow except for a small corner of the roof, as is seen in the photo taken June 9, 2011 compared with the photo from August 2009.

Did You Know? At Mount Rainier, winter snowfall is typically heaviest between the elevations of 5,000 and 8,000 feet. Paradise, at 5,420 feet, receives an average of 680 inches of snowfall (nearly 57 feet) every year, making it one of the consistently snowiest places on Earth of those where snowfall is measured.

end NPS...

Lake Mead in NV/AZ is expected to rise some 40 FEET as a result of all the snowmelt...and just to prove how low it WAS...that's still only about 56% of it's capacity.

Joe