A Late May surge of heat is heading this way. As temperatures percolate across the southern plains states, we are caught beneath a low gray overcast with a few patches of some drizzle out there. Aside from the drizzle there really isn't much else showing up on radar. No storms, no real areas of rainfall except for some storms in NE MO.

A warm front is situated down across the south part of the plains states. It's showing up nicely on the surface map and it really isn't moving all that much nor will it till overnight tonight.


As the winds above the surface kick in this evening...there will be lift going on. However as all this occurs temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere will be warming considerably. The CAP will be building in. So really it's a race to see whether or not convection (with potential hail) could form before the cap creates a lid on the updrafts. This will be what I monitor this evening. I think the convection chances should hold off till later tonight, around 10PM-4AM. The threat should go way down heading towards daybreak tomorrow as we jump into the warmer, more humid airmass to finish off the holidday weekend. So the pools will be a lot more crowded Sunday and Monday. In addition to the muggies settling in for a few days, the winds are also going to increase rather dramatically as well. The South winds will be blowing @ 20-40+ MPH through Monday.

How long the heat lasts is a bit of a question mark. There are signs in the modelling that some sort of convection fueled boundary may creep into the area from the west and NW in the form of an outflow from some plains storms. on Tuesday. This would certainly have an impact on highs Tuesday. Perhaps even introduce some rain chances into the forecast as that boundary washes out nearby.

Here is the forecast map for 1PM Tuesday off the NAM model...it shows a boundary of sorts near by. What convection is there would probably be weakening as it approaches the KC area, perhaps being a bit more substantial across NW MO.

Depending on what that boundary does and how far it makes it, or doesn't in the area will determine the weather on TUE....should it get here we could be only near 75-80, should it fall apart before it gets here we may be 85 or so with residual clouds, and should it not get here at all and there is little cloud cover we may be closer to 90. So that day will be tricky.

Then on the assumption that boundary falls apart or lifts back to the north, then we go right back into the warm humid airmass through next weekend. The GFS is indicating the potential for some sort of disturbance to come out of the Panhandles on WED giving us another opportunity for rainfall. This would be iffy at this point but the Canadian is also doing this as well. So while the heat will build in for 2 days it may edge off dor another couple of days before returning in a strong way heading towards next weekend.

Some additional information concerning our severe weather season thus far. Sadly the death toll from the Joplin tornado a week ago tomorrow now is up to about 140. That makes this season the deadliest overall since 1950 with at least 520 fatalities. According to MO the unaccounted for still number near 100 so this number sadly may still go up.. There have been now close to 295 reports of tornados this month and more than 1335 reports this year. There have been 55 tornados associated with fatalities compared to the 3 year average of 22. Sadly that 520 fatality number is destined to go even higher. The 3 year avg is 64. So we're running 900% above average in that regard.

Finally some interesting video of the winds associated with the tornado last week in Joplin. Take a look at the clock as well, as the outer part of the tornadic winds affect this house.

Joe