Welcome to the Warm Sector. Our warm front surged through the region this AM as expected. There were some scattered showers and a few t/storms along the I-70 corridor, that activity then quickly moved to the North, and eventually made it towards the IA border near daybreak. Severe weather though was tough to come by, some brief wind gusts and maybe some small hail. Now everybody is heating up and the winds are pretty decent out of the south at close to 30+ MPH. This will occur again tomorrow as well.

Aloft the air has warmed dramatically in the last 48 hours. We've gone from 10C (50F) to 20C (68F) from the balloon sounding site @ Topeka. That's pretty impressive and with all the wind that's out there, we're also effectively mixing this warm air to the ground, allowing temperatures today to soar compared to yesterday. We're well into the 80s now and some may finish the day in the lower 90s! Again expect a repeat tomorrow with no rain threat. Not only is the air warm at the surface but the cap has built in as well. Temperatures at 10K feet are also close to 58F. That prevents the updrafts from penetrating that depth of warm air, hence the reference to the CAP. This keeps the lid on towering cumulus clouds turning into t/storm producing clouds.


Here is the latest weather map from the 1PM hour showing the warm sector and where the warm front is located....

The latest visible satellite pictures are also painting a bright picture for the rest of the afternoon...

Still some residual cloud cover in N MO, but aside from that we're looking clear from the 36 highway corridor points southwards.

There really haven't been any changes to my thoughts for the next 5-7 days compared to yesterday. There will be some sort of weak outflow or rain cooled air that slips into the area on TUE and weakens/falls apart nearby. This should generate clouds if nothing else. See yesterday's blog for more information about that idea.

Wednesday we'll warm up a couple of more degrees and then jump back into the ridge for the end of the week and next weekend. Many forecasters will look at the upper air maps and see this huge central US ridge and think, wow here come the near 100 degree heat. While that would be true during the mid summer months, now with the terrain being so green and lush and with there being so much moisture that needs to evaporate, I'll play things more conservative and keep highs, give or take near 90 at the worst. Maybe a degree or two warmer next weekend as we start to dry out a bit. This growing like crazy vegetation, here and through the region to our south will cut our potential highs from 2-5 degrees for a while.

This ridge of High Pressure aloft is rather strong for late May/early June. Take a look at the maps. We call these "Heat Wave Generators" because of the typically slow movement and their ability to heat things up and cause the air to go stagnant on you. Again in mid July we'd be talking about 100+ heat if things were dried out.  This will effectively push all the significant storms well off to the NW of here...

It's going to be a quieter next 7 days, and aside from an occasional rain chance on TUE and a slight chance on WED as the hot air moves back into the region, it's going to be very summery around these parts for a while. Enjoy it if your a fan of the heat and humidity!

Joe



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