Sunday, May 15, 2011

This is one miserable looking satellite picture, but where it was raining this AM, towards the I-80 corridor, it has now somewhat cleared out as this satellite picture will reveal.


Unfortunately there is rain in some of that cloud cover, and while I'm not expecting a lot for the metro, areas to the NE of KC are not having a nice weather afternoon as expected. Take a look at radar.

So some rain is expected with the higher chances on the MO side for the rest of the afternoon. We're right now @ 52 degrees and may rise another 1-3 before the rain arrives, with NW winds gusting to 20 or so, just not pleasant again out there. Where there is rain falling, temperatures are in the 40s.

Now let's go down to the Gulf Of Mexico area where southern Texas has seen the richer gulf moisture temporarily get somewhat eliminated...notice those dewpoints in the green numbers...40s/50s as opposed to the 60s/70s from earlier this week. This means, with wind trajectories taking their time returning towards the south, that moisture return into our area, of significance will wait towards Thursday. Once it gets here it may get pretty humid out there again through next weekend and a lot warmer as well.



Our next significant rain chance will be tied to a storm off the western part of the country. It will wait for some additional jet stream energy off the coast of Alaska and then reorganize in the western part of the US. Then that newly developed storm will then move through the Western Plains and into the Western Dakotas. This will create a favorable set-up for rainfall sometime THU into FRI and perhaps a lingering chance in the heat on SAT (more scattered). At this point it's tough to say how heavy this will be for us but there is some potential for a beneficial rainfall for many areas of the Plains states.

Here is the GFS projection for a 5 day total from 7AM FRI through 7AM WED the 25th...



It certainly will be a wetter and warmer period through the rest of the month as opposed to what we've seen for the 1st half of May (.67" @ KCI) with near average temperatures. This however, shouldn't be surprising since the next 3-4 weeks are typically the wettest of the year. It should also reignite a slow month of severe weather chasing, especially down through the southern plains states and also up through the western plains. Still not seeing anything overwhelming for this part of the country for awhile but there are signs the last week of May could be much more active closer to home.


Have a great week

Joe

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