Around these parts, usually if you just wait long enough, things change...we've gotten from brutally hot weather to more seasonable days this month. We've gone from really needing some rainfall to having, in some cases now too much again in spots. Today is a cloudy gray, showery day with readings mainly in the 70s in the region.
Of course the bigger story continues to be the severe weather that pelted many in the area again last night, knocking out power to 10s of thousands, toppling trees and downing power lines. There were several reports of SOFTBALL sized hail (impressive for this time of year here) and winds of 60-80 MPH through the area..
These are the reports from last night, all the green dots represent severe winds, while the blue dots show the larger hailstones....
Looking at the KCP & L website, there are still some 20000 customers without power this afternoon, they're making a dent in that number but it's going to take awhile to get where they want to be. Some 8000 customers on the Westar grid are without power as well.
That was night #2 and really the 3rd time, going back to the 1st weekend of the month that powerful storms ripped through the northland. Concerning Thursday nights outbreak of severe weather, the NWS has a write-up on the storms here
The showers today, aren't too bad and shouldn't last for much longer. I was in the Parkville Riverfest Parade today and while there were a few raindrops, it was OK...lots of folks there are without power as well. here is a picture I shot out the windshield when a 5 minute shower was in progress.
Not too pleasant for a few minutes to be sure. Thanks to all who were waving like crazy at yours truly.
let's move on, the rain chances, after this small wave moves by should be minimal for the rest of the weekend. By Monday another disturbance in the flow will approach the region and spark off additional showers and storms that should move through the region. The NAM has painted this much precip, and while the location of the heaviest rainfall is still in question the potential for an additional 1-2+" is realistic to start the new work week.
Speaking of rainfall...today KCI set a record for the most amount of rainfall on this date in our recorded history with 2.4" of rainfall. Very impressive...here are some other totals from around the area...
Doppler estimates paint the swath of heaviest rainfall...
Click on all those images to make them larger...
The tropics are active and now we're going to have to focus on a developing tropical depression towards the Leeward Islands as our potential 1st hurricane of the season. Harvey was the latest tropical storm that came ashore this afternoon near Belize, Mexico. disturbance #1 on this image is the one that bears the most watching this week, as our computer forecasts have been pretty insistent on this threatening the SE part of the country later on this upcoming week.
The GFS brings it ashore in S FL, the Canadian does so in the FL Panhandle and the EURO also takes it into S FL. One key to the intensity of this is how the islands (especially Cuba) play a role in the storms potential strength. This may be one of those up and down storms for intensity which will make it tricky to forecast. The name Irene is next on the list of tropical storm names...
That's about it for today...a busy one for sure!
joe
Saturday, August 20, 2011
Sunday, August 14, 2011
With our weather so quiet today...lets talk about t/storms.
For the second time this summer, strong winds from a t/storm complex have destroyed a temporary stage at a music event. Last month this happened up in Ottawa, Canada injuring several people during a Cheap Trick concert. it also happened in OK last month as well. Last night it happened @ the Indiana State Fair, right before a Sugarland concert. The video of the event is disturbing...take a look for yourself. It seems like folks are "surprised" that things like this can happen. Obviously they shouldn't be...it was a thunderstorm, and a strong one. Perhaps the wind was more focused on that one area of the State Fair as this report will attest.
INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - The wind gust that toppled a stage at the Indiana State Fair Saturday night, killing five and injuring dozens of fans waiting for the country band Sugarland to perform, was a "fluke" that no one could have anticipated, the governor and others said Sunday.
The wind was far stronger than that in other areas of the fairgrounds, said Dan McCarthy, chief meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Indiana. He estimated the gust at 60 to 70 mph.
Gov. Mitch Daniels said precautions were taken before the storm, but no one could have foreseen such a strong gust focused in one place. Some witnesses have said that while a storm was expected, rain hadn't begun to fall when the wind sent the stage rigging falling into the crowd of terrified fans.
While people were being notified about the potential for severe weather, the actions didn't come fast enough. the NWS issued a WARNING @ 8:39 PM...the disaster occurred at 8:50...obviously 10 minutes is not enough time...and odds are it was about 5-8 minutes.
By the time the warning was issued, odds are there was a conversation for a few minutes about what to do...then it was decided...then you had to notify and set in motion a plan. I think however they thought that they had more time to act. Unfortunately they didn't.
Here is some more information from the AP...
Bursten said emergency personnel and fair officials were monitoring the weather because a severe storm had been expected to hit the area around 9:15 p.m. But the storm hit shortly before 9 p.m.
He said preparations were being made to evacuate the facility but that the "significant gust of wind" struck the stage rigging that holds lights and other equipment before the evacuation plan was activated.
"As we all know, weather can change in a very rapid period of time," he said.
Concert-goers said the opening act by Sara Bareilles had finished and the crowd was waiting for Sugarland to take the stage. They said an announcer had alerted them that severe weather was possible and gave instructions on what to do if an evacuation was necessary. But the same announcer said concert organizers hoped the show would go on, and many fans stayed put.
The wind that toppled the rigging came just minutes after that announcement, fans said.
Now I'm trying to put myself in their situation...and I totally understand. By saying that the show would hopefully go on, the fans figured that they paid good money, the VIP area was right in front and they were already situated with the best possible viewing of the show...they didn't want to give that position up...I get it. There are unconfirmed reports that they announced that the band would play a few songs first...not sure IF that is true or not but if it is then that is not good! By the way here is a radar replay of the storms moving through.
Perhaps if the announcer said something to the effect of we're delaying the show for 1 hour and want everybody to seek a safer location or something to that effect, perhaps that might have been better. Regardless of whether or not there were going to be strong winds, their certainly was the high likelihood of potentially deadly lightning from the same storm. Reason enough to get the folks out of there, especially the ones who were in the open areas.
Obviously hindsight is also 20/20...no doubt that all the EMs from the area are watching the events that led up to the disaster and will be thinking about how this may pertain to them in certain scenarios where temporary stages are set up. 5 dead and dozens injured is something that needs to be prevented...and in certain ways a lot of it perhaps could've been...
Roger Edwards, a noted forecaster for the SPC has written this...
Elsewhere, the NE part of the country got hammered with heavy rainfall this AM...amounts of 4-8" fell around the NY area. While too much at one time, the rain was welcome, they too had been drying out. They're not done either with an additional 1-3" on the way from the look of radar...here are some totals from the noon hour...
Click on that to make it larger...
For us the potential of rain will be slowly increasing from MON-WED...tomorrow there may be some activity in the area later in the AM through PM..TUE the best chance is in the AM and WED the best chance is in the PM...initially tomorrow the rain will be fighting the dry air as it moves eastwards. I will drop the chances tomorrow to about 20% then go about 40% on TUE and 60% on WED...
By the way the seasons 7th named storm formed this afternoon out near Bermuda...her name is Gert...
Should be no threat to the US...and I believe this is the first time we've had at least 6 named storms without one hurricane developing in modern history.
Have a great Sunday! I'll visit with you again tomorrow!
joe
For the second time this summer, strong winds from a t/storm complex have destroyed a temporary stage at a music event. Last month this happened up in Ottawa, Canada injuring several people during a Cheap Trick concert. it also happened in OK last month as well. Last night it happened @ the Indiana State Fair, right before a Sugarland concert. The video of the event is disturbing...take a look for yourself. It seems like folks are "surprised" that things like this can happen. Obviously they shouldn't be...it was a thunderstorm, and a strong one. Perhaps the wind was more focused on that one area of the State Fair as this report will attest.
INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - The wind gust that toppled a stage at the Indiana State Fair Saturday night, killing five and injuring dozens of fans waiting for the country band Sugarland to perform, was a "fluke" that no one could have anticipated, the governor and others said Sunday.
The wind was far stronger than that in other areas of the fairgrounds, said Dan McCarthy, chief meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Indiana. He estimated the gust at 60 to 70 mph.
Gov. Mitch Daniels said precautions were taken before the storm, but no one could have foreseen such a strong gust focused in one place. Some witnesses have said that while a storm was expected, rain hadn't begun to fall when the wind sent the stage rigging falling into the crowd of terrified fans.
While people were being notified about the potential for severe weather, the actions didn't come fast enough. the NWS issued a WARNING @ 8:39 PM...the disaster occurred at 8:50...obviously 10 minutes is not enough time...and odds are it was about 5-8 minutes.
By the time the warning was issued, odds are there was a conversation for a few minutes about what to do...then it was decided...then you had to notify and set in motion a plan. I think however they thought that they had more time to act. Unfortunately they didn't.
Here is some more information from the AP...
Bursten said emergency personnel and fair officials were monitoring the weather because a severe storm had been expected to hit the area around 9:15 p.m. But the storm hit shortly before 9 p.m.
He said preparations were being made to evacuate the facility but that the "significant gust of wind" struck the stage rigging that holds lights and other equipment before the evacuation plan was activated.
"As we all know, weather can change in a very rapid period of time," he said.
Concert-goers said the opening act by Sara Bareilles had finished and the crowd was waiting for Sugarland to take the stage. They said an announcer had alerted them that severe weather was possible and gave instructions on what to do if an evacuation was necessary. But the same announcer said concert organizers hoped the show would go on, and many fans stayed put.
The wind that toppled the rigging came just minutes after that announcement, fans said.
Now I'm trying to put myself in their situation...and I totally understand. By saying that the show would hopefully go on, the fans figured that they paid good money, the VIP area was right in front and they were already situated with the best possible viewing of the show...they didn't want to give that position up...I get it. There are unconfirmed reports that they announced that the band would play a few songs first...not sure IF that is true or not but if it is then that is not good! By the way here is a radar replay of the storms moving through.
Perhaps if the announcer said something to the effect of we're delaying the show for 1 hour and want everybody to seek a safer location or something to that effect, perhaps that might have been better. Regardless of whether or not there were going to be strong winds, their certainly was the high likelihood of potentially deadly lightning from the same storm. Reason enough to get the folks out of there, especially the ones who were in the open areas.
Obviously hindsight is also 20/20...no doubt that all the EMs from the area are watching the events that led up to the disaster and will be thinking about how this may pertain to them in certain scenarios where temporary stages are set up. 5 dead and dozens injured is something that needs to be prevented...and in certain ways a lot of it perhaps could've been...
Roger Edwards, a noted forecaster for the SPC has written this...
Elsewhere, the NE part of the country got hammered with heavy rainfall this AM...amounts of 4-8" fell around the NY area. While too much at one time, the rain was welcome, they too had been drying out. They're not done either with an additional 1-3" on the way from the look of radar...here are some totals from the noon hour...
Click on that to make it larger...
For us the potential of rain will be slowly increasing from MON-WED...tomorrow there may be some activity in the area later in the AM through PM..TUE the best chance is in the AM and WED the best chance is in the PM...initially tomorrow the rain will be fighting the dry air as it moves eastwards. I will drop the chances tomorrow to about 20% then go about 40% on TUE and 60% on WED...
By the way the seasons 7th named storm formed this afternoon out near Bermuda...her name is Gert...
Should be no threat to the US...and I believe this is the first time we've had at least 6 named storms without one hurricane developing in modern history.
Have a great Sunday! I'll visit with you again tomorrow!
joe
Saturday, August 13, 2011
While wondering of Portland, OR will ever hit 90 this year...they've yet to do it and it's only happened once that they've never done it before and that would be 1954. By the way...that was a scorching summer for the KC area as well.
Speaking of which...here is where we stand, summer wise. June was 2.4 degrees above average, July was 4.7 above average and so far, with August about 1/2 done, we're running about 3 degrees above average. It's been hot for sure, but for at least a few days, starting tomorrow, we may be BELOW average with highs in the 80-85 range and lows in the lower 60s...overall not bad at all by mid August standards.
High pressure is building southwards through the Plains states and porviding a pretty decent airmass for this time of the year. Temperatures to the north are in the 70s and that air, while modified somewhat, will be pushing into the area overnight tonight, setting the stage for a great Sunday in the region.
If your wondering about the searing heat that's been gripping the southern plains for the last couple of months...well that too has been pushed well to the south...all the way south to the Lufkin-Austin, TX area. Dallas broke their 100 streak a couple of days ago...and today may be Waco's turn. As of this writing Waco is reporting 87 degrees with cloudy skies. Take a look at their streaks...
Click on that image to make it larger...44 days is impressive but today that streak is going to be snapped. As a bonus, some much needed rainfall, to say the least, has fallen through the N TX area around the I-20 corridor overnight and this AM...
I actually felt good for them this AM as as I saw the regional radar...can't imagine what things look like down there and what the farmer's are going through. This isn't by no means a drought buster, but for a least a day or two, the parched ground is relieved.
Speaking of the drought, the NWS in Pleasant Hill has put together a fantastic piece about where we stand in these parts concerning the dry spell we've been going through. No sooner than they take the time to put that together, then the metro see's some wonderfully beneficial rainfall yesterday. Some did get missed for sure, but it was certainly most welcome. A lot of the areas that have been missed lately with the spotty and sporadic rainfall did get into the .5-1.0" rainfall tallies.
Meanwhile in the tropics, another named storm formed this AM, Franklin is out in the tropicall Atlantic, a concern to only shipping, and there are several other areas that bear watching...here is a look at the active season thus far, 6 named storms, but all have really not been that significant.
Interesting to note that the GFS, which is usually horrendous with a capital H on these systems, takes #3 and slowly intensifies it over the next 3-5 days, brings it through the Carribean then into the Gulf then into SE TX, then right up towards the KC area by the 28th. Hint on this forecast, don't bet the house on the chance of it being right.
What is interesting is that, while we may heat back up a little, nothing long term, in looking at the longer range pattern, there appears better than decent chances than a strong pacific disturbance will ride through the US/Canadian border and then dive into the Great Lakes area, this would then place the ridge well south of here and squeeze the hottest air back towards the SW part of the country and through the Rockies. So while there could be a couple of hotter days ahead of some cold fronts, there does appear to be increasing chances of decent cold fronts every few days, and as a result maybe more rain chances!
That's it for today, have a great weekend!
Joe
Speaking of which...here is where we stand, summer wise. June was 2.4 degrees above average, July was 4.7 above average and so far, with August about 1/2 done, we're running about 3 degrees above average. It's been hot for sure, but for at least a few days, starting tomorrow, we may be BELOW average with highs in the 80-85 range and lows in the lower 60s...overall not bad at all by mid August standards.
High pressure is building southwards through the Plains states and porviding a pretty decent airmass for this time of the year. Temperatures to the north are in the 70s and that air, while modified somewhat, will be pushing into the area overnight tonight, setting the stage for a great Sunday in the region.
If your wondering about the searing heat that's been gripping the southern plains for the last couple of months...well that too has been pushed well to the south...all the way south to the Lufkin-Austin, TX area. Dallas broke their 100 streak a couple of days ago...and today may be Waco's turn. As of this writing Waco is reporting 87 degrees with cloudy skies. Take a look at their streaks...
Click on that image to make it larger...44 days is impressive but today that streak is going to be snapped. As a bonus, some much needed rainfall, to say the least, has fallen through the N TX area around the I-20 corridor overnight and this AM...
I actually felt good for them this AM as as I saw the regional radar...can't imagine what things look like down there and what the farmer's are going through. This isn't by no means a drought buster, but for a least a day or two, the parched ground is relieved.
Speaking of the drought, the NWS in Pleasant Hill has put together a fantastic piece about where we stand in these parts concerning the dry spell we've been going through. No sooner than they take the time to put that together, then the metro see's some wonderfully beneficial rainfall yesterday. Some did get missed for sure, but it was certainly most welcome. A lot of the areas that have been missed lately with the spotty and sporadic rainfall did get into the .5-1.0" rainfall tallies.
Meanwhile in the tropics, another named storm formed this AM, Franklin is out in the tropicall Atlantic, a concern to only shipping, and there are several other areas that bear watching...here is a look at the active season thus far, 6 named storms, but all have really not been that significant.
Interesting to note that the GFS, which is usually horrendous with a capital H on these systems, takes #3 and slowly intensifies it over the next 3-5 days, brings it through the Carribean then into the Gulf then into SE TX, then right up towards the KC area by the 28th. Hint on this forecast, don't bet the house on the chance of it being right.
What is interesting is that, while we may heat back up a little, nothing long term, in looking at the longer range pattern, there appears better than decent chances than a strong pacific disturbance will ride through the US/Canadian border and then dive into the Great Lakes area, this would then place the ridge well south of here and squeeze the hottest air back towards the SW part of the country and through the Rockies. So while there could be a couple of hotter days ahead of some cold fronts, there does appear to be increasing chances of decent cold fronts every few days, and as a result maybe more rain chances!
That's it for today, have a great weekend!
Joe
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
As I was looking at the new data last night...and watching radar and eventually realizing that my much hoped for rain was going to be lackluster at best I started to think about what the forecast would've been IF this was a winter scenario...let's flash forward about 6 months or so and talk about how the forecast would've evolved...
This would've started as a decent chance of snow, which then would've been upgraded to a good chance of an accumulating snow. That would've been about the time that folks would start paying closer attention to the situation. Yesterday morning DH and KR probably would've been talking about the potential for 3-6" of snow...heck based on the data yesterday I may have even upgraded it to a 4-8" snow with much higher totals off towards the SW and W of KC. TV stations would've then gone into snow mode, named the storm one thing or another, stuck reporters outside, sent them to the usual snow live shots at the road treatment depots and the grocery stores for people who would be buying the food like crazy...you know the drill right?
Then the latest data would come in before 9PM, and with the horses all out of the barn and everybody ready for a snow day and set to watch all the snow come down...as the saying goes "boom goes the dynamite." I would've been on @ 9/10 and for 2 hours and would be saying something to the effect of most of the snow would be off to the W/SW of KC and that here in the metro, we'd only get a dusting to 2" or so. Then this AM DH would be saying something to the effect that the metro would get flurries or maybe a dusting at best.
However, after all that preparation and media hype people would be mad as heck at their local forecasters because the snow failed to materialize. Despite the much reduced, and more correct forecast at the end, it would've been too late. Emails would be flying between viewers who may have watched you, or those who watched another station who may have said something else, or not reacted to the trend in the latest model data...this would not have been a good day to be at work....
Alas, and thankfully, we're not in late December or January, it's August and we're having a tough time right now getting a widespread rain across the region. This system will not do it either. The good news is that today will be a nicely below average day for temperatures as highs should struggle to get to 80 degrees thanks to all the clouds for the first part of the day, and a more easterly component to the wind. There may actually be some lower 80s across areas towards the N or NE of the metro where the sun may be a bit more prevalent today...cooler highs may be more towards the SE of KC where the clouds should linger the longest and the coolest will be SW of KC where the rain will be slightly more of an issue.
Here is a sign of the seasons moving along. Earlier this AM, parts of MN dropped into the 30s for the 1st time since mid June I think...
On the other side of the coin...yesterday Ft Smith STOPPED their consecutive streak of 100+ days at 35. Today though Waco goes for their record of 42 straight 100+ days...and I think Saturday is the day they will try to break the record which stands right now @ 42. It is getting a bit muddled though as I'm watching a strong outflow now move through OK and seems to maybe have enough punch to get close to DFW by later this AM...maybe they may get surprised today and see a break...doubtful but something intersting is going on north of the Red River.
That's it for now...if needed I'll update things later today. Next decent rain chance is on Friday but as I finish this there are a few t/showers developing to the SE of the metro...near Sedalia...
Joe
adf
This would've started as a decent chance of snow, which then would've been upgraded to a good chance of an accumulating snow. That would've been about the time that folks would start paying closer attention to the situation. Yesterday morning DH and KR probably would've been talking about the potential for 3-6" of snow...heck based on the data yesterday I may have even upgraded it to a 4-8" snow with much higher totals off towards the SW and W of KC. TV stations would've then gone into snow mode, named the storm one thing or another, stuck reporters outside, sent them to the usual snow live shots at the road treatment depots and the grocery stores for people who would be buying the food like crazy...you know the drill right?
Then the latest data would come in before 9PM, and with the horses all out of the barn and everybody ready for a snow day and set to watch all the snow come down...as the saying goes "boom goes the dynamite." I would've been on @ 9/10 and for 2 hours and would be saying something to the effect of most of the snow would be off to the W/SW of KC and that here in the metro, we'd only get a dusting to 2" or so. Then this AM DH would be saying something to the effect that the metro would get flurries or maybe a dusting at best.
However, after all that preparation and media hype people would be mad as heck at their local forecasters because the snow failed to materialize. Despite the much reduced, and more correct forecast at the end, it would've been too late. Emails would be flying between viewers who may have watched you, or those who watched another station who may have said something else, or not reacted to the trend in the latest model data...this would not have been a good day to be at work....
Alas, and thankfully, we're not in late December or January, it's August and we're having a tough time right now getting a widespread rain across the region. This system will not do it either. The good news is that today will be a nicely below average day for temperatures as highs should struggle to get to 80 degrees thanks to all the clouds for the first part of the day, and a more easterly component to the wind. There may actually be some lower 80s across areas towards the N or NE of the metro where the sun may be a bit more prevalent today...cooler highs may be more towards the SE of KC where the clouds should linger the longest and the coolest will be SW of KC where the rain will be slightly more of an issue.
Here is a sign of the seasons moving along. Earlier this AM, parts of MN dropped into the 30s for the 1st time since mid June I think...
On the other side of the coin...yesterday Ft Smith STOPPED their consecutive streak of 100+ days at 35. Today though Waco goes for their record of 42 straight 100+ days...and I think Saturday is the day they will try to break the record which stands right now @ 42. It is getting a bit muddled though as I'm watching a strong outflow now move through OK and seems to maybe have enough punch to get close to DFW by later this AM...maybe they may get surprised today and see a break...doubtful but something intersting is going on north of the Red River.
That's it for now...if needed I'll update things later today. Next decent rain chance is on Friday but as I finish this there are a few t/showers developing to the SE of the metro...near Sedalia...
Joe
adf
Monday, August 8, 2011
Some interesting weather stats to kick off your Tuesday AM...as we know it's been a pretty rough summer here...in the world of weather we consider the seasons a little differently. For us, to keep stats and record keeping easier, Summer is from June 1st to August 30th. I saw this information in an article from USA Today, talking about the summer heat...their referencing the Weather Channel information here...take a look at the percentage of days since May 20th that cities have had ABOVE average temperatures...pretty impressive runs so far...with the southern plains still not expecting much of a significant cool down for a long time...
I noticed KC wasn't on that list...so for us the magic number was 70%...or just below the cities they have listed there...
IF you start the list through on June 1st our percentage of above average days jumps up to a respectable 74%.
There was also this that struck me, concerning the devastating heat that has gripped Oklahoma for the last several months...in the month of July...I thought this was very impressive...
The link to the whole article is here...fascinating to say the least, especially when you think about the dust bowl days. Texas is also seeing their hottest June/July combo since records have been kept going back to the 1890s...
For us however for the next 5-7 days+ a few...it may not be that bad as temperatures may, more often than not, be below average for awhile...the GFS is certainly optimistic about this potential...and it has decent to good backing from all the other models I looked at today.
Click on that image to make it larger...
Also something interesting to me is looking up towards the polar areas...look at all that warmth! Those are pretty significant anomalies for that area, especially now that the daylight is starting to shorten up rather quickly up there...
OK...the last look of July courtesy of the folks @ NOAA...their headline is that July was the 4th warmest in recorded history...here is the article...
Persistent, scorching heat in the central and eastern regions of the United States shattered long-standing daily and monthly temperature records last month, making it the fourth warmest July on record nationally, according to scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. The heat exacerbated drought conditions, resulting in the largest “exceptional” drought footprint in the 12-year history of the U.S. Drought Monitor. “Exceptional” is the most severe category of drought on the drought monitor scale. Drought conditions at several locations in the South region are not as long lived, but are as dry, or drier, than the historic droughts of the 1930s and 1950s.
The average U.S. temperature in July was 77.0 degrees F, which is 2.7 degrees F above the long-term (1901-2000) average. Precipitation, averaged across the nation, was 2.46 inches. This was 0.32 inch below the long-term average, with large variability between regions. This monthly analysis, based on records dating back to 1895, is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides.
U.S. climate highlights – July
OK that's it for today...have a great Tuesday and enjoy the cooler weather!
joe
I noticed KC wasn't on that list...so for us the magic number was 70%...or just below the cities they have listed there...
IF you start the list through on June 1st our percentage of above average days jumps up to a respectable 74%.
There was also this that struck me, concerning the devastating heat that has gripped Oklahoma for the last several months...in the month of July...I thought this was very impressive...
According to data from the Oklahoma Mesonet, the statewide average temperature during July came in at 89.1 degrees, more than 7 degrees above normal. High temperatures alone were nearly 9 degrees above normal at 102.9 degrees. The National Climatic Data Center's statewide average for July stands at 88.9 degrees with data still being collected. Both values shattered the country’s previous record of 88.1 degrees held by another legendary hot month in Oklahoma, July 1954.
The link to the whole article is here...fascinating to say the least, especially when you think about the dust bowl days. Texas is also seeing their hottest June/July combo since records have been kept going back to the 1890s...
For us however for the next 5-7 days+ a few...it may not be that bad as temperatures may, more often than not, be below average for awhile...the GFS is certainly optimistic about this potential...and it has decent to good backing from all the other models I looked at today.
Click on that image to make it larger...
Also something interesting to me is looking up towards the polar areas...look at all that warmth! Those are pretty significant anomalies for that area, especially now that the daylight is starting to shorten up rather quickly up there...
OK...the last look of July courtesy of the folks @ NOAA...their headline is that July was the 4th warmest in recorded history...here is the article...
Persistent, scorching heat in the central and eastern regions of the United States shattered long-standing daily and monthly temperature records last month, making it the fourth warmest July on record nationally, according to scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. The heat exacerbated drought conditions, resulting in the largest “exceptional” drought footprint in the 12-year history of the U.S. Drought Monitor. “Exceptional” is the most severe category of drought on the drought monitor scale. Drought conditions at several locations in the South region are not as long lived, but are as dry, or drier, than the historic droughts of the 1930s and 1950s.
The average U.S. temperature in July was 77.0 degrees F, which is 2.7 degrees F above the long-term (1901-2000) average. Precipitation, averaged across the nation, was 2.46 inches. This was 0.32 inch below the long-term average, with large variability between regions. This monthly analysis, based on records dating back to 1895, is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides.
U.S. climate highlights – July
- Oklahoma and Texas had their warmest months ever on record, with average temperatures of 88.9 degrees F and 87.1 degrees F, respectively. Oklahoma's statewide average temperature was the warmest monthly statewide average temperature on record for any state during any month.
- 41 of the lower 48 states had above-normal, much-above-normal, or a record warmest July. Only seven of the lower 48 states – all west of the Rockies – experienced a July average temperature near or below the 20th century average.
- The South climate region -- Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas -- had its warmest single calendar month for any climate region on record. The average temperature of 86.1 degrees F, bested the previous all-time record of 85.9 set in July 1980 in the South climate region.
- Dallas exceeded 100 degrees F on 30 of the 31 days in July. In Oklahoma City, July was the warmest single calendar month, with an average temperature of 89.2, beating the previous record of 88.7 degrees F set in August 1936. Washington, D.C.’s Reagan National Airport had its warmest single calendar month on record, with an average temperature of 84.5 degrees F, breaking the previous record of 83.1 degrees F set in July 2010 and July 1993.
- The July heat wave was characterized by unusually warm minimum temperatures, during nights and early mornings. This is typical of U.S. heat waves in the last decade, and consistent with increasing warm summer nighttime extremes observed across much of the country since the late 20th century.
- Wetter-than-normal conditions occurred along parts of the Gulf Coast, all of the Pacific Coast, and much of the upper Midwest. California tied for its fifth wettest July. Other states that were abnormally wet in July included: Utah (6th wettest), Wyoming (9th), and South Dakota (10th). At the same time, July offered no relief to the parched soils of Texas and Oklahoma where it was the second (tied) and ninth driest July on record, respectively.
- Exceptional drought, as defined by the U.S. Drought Monitor, covers more than 75 percent of Texas (201,436 sq mi). Drought conditions are so harsh in some locations that it would take as much as 20 inches of precipitation in one month to end the drought. In Oklahoma, 100 percent of the state is suffering from moderate-exceptional drought compared to the beginning of the water year (9/28/2010), when drought conditions covered only four percent of the state.
- During the May-July period, a persistent trough/ridge weather pattern set up across the U.S., bringing above normal temperatures to the eastern half of the country and below normal temperatures to the western third. This pattern resulted in Washington State having its coolest May-July period on record, and the Northwest climate region tied with its second coolest. The West climate region had its 10th coolest May-July period.
- Oklahoma had its warmest May-July period, while 18 other states had a top 10 warmest three months. The South climate region had its second warmest May-July and the Northeast and Southeast both had a top 10 warmest such period.
- During the same period, a steady flow of moisture from the West coast to the upper Midwest resulted in the fifth wettest May-July for the Northern High Plains area. Meanwhile, it was the second and seventh driest such period for the South and Southeast, respectively.
- The six-month (February-July) and the year-to-date (January-July) periods were record dry for Texas, New Mexico and the South climate region. Conversely, across the Northern half of the country, most states experienced much above normal precipitation. Three states had record precipitation amounts for the February-July period: Kentucky, Ohio, and Michigan.
- Flooding along the Missouri River Basin is associated with a record amount of precipitation during August 2010-July 2011 in Montana, North Dakota, and Minnesota. The previous records for statewide precipitation during this period were from 1901 and 1907 in North Dakota and Montana, respectively.
OK that's it for today...have a great Tuesday and enjoy the cooler weather!
joe
For the 1st time in a longgggg time there are no heat advisories/warnings in effect for a good chunk of the region. The closest is a Excessive Heat Warning for areas towards the OK border...and it's a reminder that the heat has been pushed about 4+ hours south of here and will sit there for awhile. I believe yesterday was the coolest day in Oklahoma City since June 28th...and they still hit 95 degrees!
Here in KC we almost made it up to 100 in the Downtown area...we hit 99 there with a high of 94 @ KCI. The bigger story was the violent storms that formed in the mid afternoon producing wind gusts of close to 70 MPH in the area, mainly through the central and N/NE side of the metro and lots of power outages. At one point close to 40K customers were without power and some still are as lots of trees were snapped. The winds maximized out towards Lafayette County near the Higginsville area with winds of close to 95 MPH...which is about the equivalent to an EF1 tornado...or the equivalent to a high end EF1 hurricane.
The morning radar shows a developing area of rain/thunder, not severe, moving through NE KS and heading this way. At this point it doesn't liik like the heaviest part of this rain will effect the metro. instead sort of splitting around us. The rain yesterday was very heavy in spots and next to nothing in others as is typical of these clusters of storms.
We are now in NW flow, with the spectacle of these disturbances being with us for the next 3-4 days. It appears the rain chances will fade tomorrow but then go back up again WED into THU...and depending on the timing of WED disturbances, there is potential for some very cool weather days in there. There is some cooler air to the NW of KC...with reading in the 50s now in NE...
Here is a look at the forecast from last nights NAM model for later WED PM showing the disturrbances, the issue will be the timing and the strength of these things...some may evolve through like this AM's...others may of have thunder should they come through with more energy.
While the worst of the summer heat is done with KC, there are still some very hot days showing up after we get done with this NW flow, which may not be for another 7-10 days. The heat will never be to far away, and it's tough to see how areas south of the Red River in TX will get a break from the drought and the heat. With the searing heat so close in the world of weather, once that ridge rebuilds, which there are indications of that potential happening towards the middle/end of August we could start talking about more 100 degree heat again. Long ways away but that heat is fierce and we're too close for it not to make a run on our area again. The days are getting shorter but still...100+ is not out of the question depending on how saturated the soils get between now and 8/15 or so...we'll see.
joe
Here in KC we almost made it up to 100 in the Downtown area...we hit 99 there with a high of 94 @ KCI. The bigger story was the violent storms that formed in the mid afternoon producing wind gusts of close to 70 MPH in the area, mainly through the central and N/NE side of the metro and lots of power outages. At one point close to 40K customers were without power and some still are as lots of trees were snapped. The winds maximized out towards Lafayette County near the Higginsville area with winds of close to 95 MPH...which is about the equivalent to an EF1 tornado...or the equivalent to a high end EF1 hurricane.
The morning radar shows a developing area of rain/thunder, not severe, moving through NE KS and heading this way. At this point it doesn't liik like the heaviest part of this rain will effect the metro. instead sort of splitting around us. The rain yesterday was very heavy in spots and next to nothing in others as is typical of these clusters of storms.
We are now in NW flow, with the spectacle of these disturbances being with us for the next 3-4 days. It appears the rain chances will fade tomorrow but then go back up again WED into THU...and depending on the timing of WED disturbances, there is potential for some very cool weather days in there. There is some cooler air to the NW of KC...with reading in the 50s now in NE...
Here is a look at the forecast from last nights NAM model for later WED PM showing the disturrbances, the issue will be the timing and the strength of these things...some may evolve through like this AM's...others may of have thunder should they come through with more energy.
While the worst of the summer heat is done with KC, there are still some very hot days showing up after we get done with this NW flow, which may not be for another 7-10 days. The heat will never be to far away, and it's tough to see how areas south of the Red River in TX will get a break from the drought and the heat. With the searing heat so close in the world of weather, once that ridge rebuilds, which there are indications of that potential happening towards the middle/end of August we could start talking about more 100 degree heat again. Long ways away but that heat is fierce and we're too close for it not to make a run on our area again. The days are getting shorter but still...100+ is not out of the question depending on how saturated the soils get between now and 8/15 or so...we'll see.
joe
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Rain on the way...at last...it may not be a lot for the metro but a solid area of rain, mostly light, with a few embedded areas of moderate rain is moving along and south of I-70 and moving to the east as I type...rainfall amounts should be under .50" for most of the metro from I-70 southwards, rain amounts should be less the farther north into the metro you go and for folks farther northwards the rain may not even make much of an impression which is the total opposite of what the models were suggesting yesterday and last night. I talked on the air about how the models were not going to handle the rain/storms very well...and yesterday and last night's runs did not....that's why I didn't want to go hog wild with with rainfall totals because my confidence wasn't high in terms of who would get the heaviest rainfall...
These disturbances, like the one that fired near Wichita yesterday evening, producing winds close to 80 MPH and some golf ball sized haill are tricky to figure out...after awhile the storms generate their own cold pools of rain-cooled air that play havoc with these systems maintaining their strength. The disturbances also evolve as they intensify and then fall apart so predicting where they will be in 6 hours, let alone 12 or 18 or 24 hours is next to impossible sometimes. Now trying to figure out where these things will develop in 2-3-4-5 days is really impossible...you can get an idea but any precision to the exact placement with confidence is pretty tough.
Let's deal with what we've got out there now...here is a radar snapshot from about 8:30 showing the rain moving from the KS side eastwards...
This will be the decent rainfall that moves into the metro over the next couple of hours...Radar observations are showing a small circulation developing near the Topeka area...this is enhancing the rain in Shawnee County and hopefully some of us will get into that as well...again I think we'll get less than .50" out of this.
Areas SE of KC felt more of the effects of the storms that developed near the Wichita area (leaving some 15K without power for awhile last night)...and it's been raining for about 6 hours or so downn there...good rainfall as well..the type that will soak in nicely...
There is a small circulation showing up in Pettis C\ounty that is helping to sustain this rainfall...totals have been welcome down there...
Click on that map to expand it...and look at the scale off to the right side for doppler indicated totals...
The core of the heat has been shunted to S OK and TX again...yesterday, Little Rock (114), Ft Smith (115), Fayetteville (110) and West Plains, MO (108) all set ALL TIME Highs...that's always impressive to me...take a look at the highs yesterday in AR...had to have been, statewide one of their hottest days ever!
HIGH LOW
A very impressive day! Meanwhile in OK, another scorcher as well...here are the mesonet highs.
Essentially 110+ from Oklahoma City SEwards...
Texas also sizzled, as Dallas hit 100+ for the 33rd straight day! Here is a look at their running streaks...
Look at what they're forecasting today...
They may get some relief later next week...we'll see.
For us at least today temperatures will be kept in check for most of the day...as a matter of fact readings may be in the 70s for the AM with the rainfall in the area before we start to go back up during the afternoon as the precip winds down and we start to thin out the clouds.
The latest surface map shows the position of the front...
Meanwhile Emily looks a bit better this AM...not really moving much at this point which isn't good for the folks in the Dominican Republic...
Still holding onto to winds of 50 MPH...FL will need to watch this storm carefully heading towards the weekend...more on this tonight @ 5//6/9/10...
That's it for today...in the hour that it's taken me to type this blog up...here is the radar from 9AM or so...
Have a great Thursday...Facebook updates as needed today.
Joe
These disturbances, like the one that fired near Wichita yesterday evening, producing winds close to 80 MPH and some golf ball sized haill are tricky to figure out...after awhile the storms generate their own cold pools of rain-cooled air that play havoc with these systems maintaining their strength. The disturbances also evolve as they intensify and then fall apart so predicting where they will be in 6 hours, let alone 12 or 18 or 24 hours is next to impossible sometimes. Now trying to figure out where these things will develop in 2-3-4-5 days is really impossible...you can get an idea but any precision to the exact placement with confidence is pretty tough.
Let's deal with what we've got out there now...here is a radar snapshot from about 8:30 showing the rain moving from the KS side eastwards...
This will be the decent rainfall that moves into the metro over the next couple of hours...Radar observations are showing a small circulation developing near the Topeka area...this is enhancing the rain in Shawnee County and hopefully some of us will get into that as well...again I think we'll get less than .50" out of this.
Areas SE of KC felt more of the effects of the storms that developed near the Wichita area (leaving some 15K without power for awhile last night)...and it's been raining for about 6 hours or so downn there...good rainfall as well..the type that will soak in nicely...
There is a small circulation showing up in Pettis C\ounty that is helping to sustain this rainfall...totals have been welcome down there...
Click on that map to expand it...and look at the scale off to the right side for doppler indicated totals...
The core of the heat has been shunted to S OK and TX again...yesterday, Little Rock (114), Ft Smith (115), Fayetteville (110) and West Plains, MO (108) all set ALL TIME Highs...that's always impressive to me...take a look at the highs yesterday in AR...had to have been, statewide one of their hottest days ever!
HIGH LOW
NORTH LITTLE ROCK : 111 / 87 / 0.00 LIT : LITTLE ROCK : 114 / 85 / 0.00 HOT : HOT SPRINGS ARPT : 108 / 82 / 0.00 FSM : FORT SMITH : 115 / 83 / 0.27 FYV : FAYETTEVILLE : 110 / 80 / 0.00 HRO : HARRISON : 112 / 79 / 0.00 JBR : JONESBORO : 107 / 79 / 0.00 ELD : EL DORADO : 108 / 80 / 0.00 TXK : TEXARKANA : 111 / 84 / 0.00 PBF : PINE BLUFF ARPT : 110 / 84 / 0.00 BPK : MOUNTAIN HOME ARPT : 114 / 81 / 0.00 RUE : RUSSELLVILLE : 115 / 83 / 0.00 MWT : MT. IDA : 112 / 79 / 0.00 M19 : NEWPORT ARPT : 108 / 78 / 0.00 LLQ : MONTICELLO ARPT : 107 / 85 / 0.00 XNA : HIGHFILL : 108 / 79 / 0.00 HKA : BLYTHEVILLE : 104 / 78 / 0.00 AWM : WEST MEMPHIS : 105 / 80 / 0.00 DEQ : DEQUEEN : 111 / 75 / 0.00 : :THE FOLLOWING STATIONS ARE NOT QUALITY CONTROLLED BY :THE NWS. : ROG : ROGERS ARPT : M / M / M VBT : BENTONVILLE ARPT : 108 / 79 / 0.00 SLG : SILOAM SPRINGS ARP : 109 / 79 / M BVX : BATESVILLE ARPT : 111 / 79 / 0.00 FLP : FLIPPIN ARPT : M / M / 0.00 ARG : WALNUT RIDGE ARPT : 106 / 79 / 0.00 SRC : SEARCY ARPT : 112 / 79 / 0.00 SGT : STUTTGART ARPT : 108 / 82 / 0.00 LRF : LITTLE ROCK AFB : 112 / 82 / 0.00 M89 : ARKADELPHIA ARPT : 113
A very impressive day! Meanwhile in OK, another scorcher as well...here are the mesonet highs.
Essentially 110+ from Oklahoma City SEwards...
Texas also sizzled, as Dallas hit 100+ for the 33rd straight day! Here is a look at their running streaks...
Look at what they're forecasting today...
They may get some relief later next week...we'll see.
For us at least today temperatures will be kept in check for most of the day...as a matter of fact readings may be in the 70s for the AM with the rainfall in the area before we start to go back up during the afternoon as the precip winds down and we start to thin out the clouds.
The latest surface map shows the position of the front...
Meanwhile Emily looks a bit better this AM...not really moving much at this point which isn't good for the folks in the Dominican Republic...
Still holding onto to winds of 50 MPH...FL will need to watch this storm carefully heading towards the weekend...more on this tonight @ 5//6/9/10...
That's it for today...in the hour that it's taken me to type this blog up...here is the radar from 9AM or so...
Have a great Thursday...Facebook updates as needed today.
Joe
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