2/12/2011

It's been talked about for a week now and sure enough the warm-up has arrived in earnest and should stick around for about a week or so. This warm-up will be dramatic. We got a taste of it yesterday as highs rose to around 40 degrees. today highs are approaching 50 and tomorrow highs should approach 60 degrees. The snow on the ground, which ranges from 2-18" around the region (Kearney-Green Ridge) will quickly melt away over the next several days. The snowfield in the region is still quite extensive. Too bad to because it's knocking about 5-10 degrees off the potential highs.

Here is a look at this afternoons visible satellite photo...showing mostly snow, with some higher cirrus clouds moving through the plains states...

Taking a look from KC northwards...the amount of white on the ground is pretty impressive...

The air aloft is nice and warm for mid February...and aside from a setback on MON-TUE where highs should drop to the 40s, the warmth will be strengthened aloft during the middle and later part of this week. Here is the GFS forecast for the airmass @ 5000' for WED AM...the yellows/reds obviously represent the warmer temperatures...

Now the same idea for THU...

This would be the day that highs could get out of hand. The GFS forecasts 5000' temperatures of 14C or about 58F. The EURO is about 2C/4F cooler but with warm air flooding our way. The winds aloft would also be strong so the atmosphere will be well mixed, so barring any substantial clouds, we'd be off to the races with highs approaching 70. I was aggressive this AM forecasting 68 as a result and was tempted to go about as warm for FRI...

OK...reality check. This is mid-February...winter still lurks as an airmass of Arctic origins will start to build later in the week in Canada and start moving back south. this airmass will be a cold slap in the face when it moves in...and typically around here, when it gets that warm, there has to be a snapback. That snapback looks to arrive SAT, if not 12 hours earlier. How long this airmass holds on and whether or not it all comes down at once or in pieces as the GFS is showing remains to be seen. The bottom line, while we may be out in shorts later in the week...make sure the winter coat is still in the closet, you'll need it again by the 20th or so...

It's been a wild ride for weather, not only here but across the country...with tonight or tomorrow night, with our weather settling down a bit, I'll look back on the air and talk about some of these events. Historical state lows (OK)...historical snowfalls...it's been crazy.

Joe