The warmer winds are a'blowing today as temperatures are now up into the 50s for many areas and some may sneak in a 60 before the afternoon is done as the snow is continuing to melt away as I type this. The noon satellite picture is interesting in that there is a real lack of cloud cover out there...so the snowfield is very evident this afternoon. Notice the "doughnut hole" look to the area around KC as the roads/streets etc are now void of snow...

Aloft, the warm air is flooding into the region this afternoon. Winds are out of the SW @ 10-15...so far no gusts, so that's not helping our mixing potential...take a look at the ~5000' temperature map in degrees C.

At Topeka this AM, the sounding reveals temperatures at that level of about 47 degrees F. With 55 degree air poised to the west and overspreading the area thanks to West winds at that level of close to 35 MPH. It's a shame that the snow on the ground is holding us back some, otherwise we'd be talking about record highs today in the lower 70s or so.

No real changes are needed to the forecast. There is a developing cold front in the N Plains states, also a lot of wind as well. You can see the cooler air rushing into ND and MT now. Not dramatic, but you can see the difference in airmasses from NE to ND...

This developing front will zip through here tonight and drop our highs back into the 45-50 range for tomorrow and with clouds streaming in on TUE, we'll stay there again.

I'm expecting a return of the warmer air beginning later Tuesday, the issue for the forecast through THU will be the potential of lower clouds. There may also be a patch or two of sprinkles/drizzle TUE or WED. Very little precip is expected in terms of amounts. The GFS is showing the moisture rather well. The darker green shades on this meteogram, show the thickest moisture. Also there will be some upper level moisture in the form of cirrus clouds. This can make it somewhat harder to burn of the low level cloud cover. Take a look at it...

The lower level moisture looks thickest TUE PM, then again WED late into THU AM. I'm still forecasting temperatures to be in the 65-68 range on THU, the moisture, I'm hoping will be scoured out by the strong winds/mixing that should erode the lower clouds. Also we may start THU AM well up into the 40s so THU could be a day the the mercury really jumps in the afternoon.

Both models are bring the next front through FRI AM...this will force me to drop the highs on FRI back down on this evenings shows, probably into the 40s. So that will be a major revision.

Concerning next weekend...there are still major questions with the thickness of the cold airmass pushing our way. It may be pretty shallow which would reduce our snow chances but increase our wintery mix chances should anything fall from the sky. Regardless continued signals of a chillier weekend and then a colder finish to the month that may be story as well.

I think March may be pretty wild around these parts, which is not unusual for that month.

Have a great week.

Joe
















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