As rarely as I have to do this, I'm concerned that I'm going to have to make significant downward revisions to the forecast for Tomorrow and Tuesday.

My forecast philosophy is pretty simple. Make the forecast and keep the forecast. It's rare that I make more than minor updates to a forecast I make on Saturday for the next 5-7 days. By minor I mean maybe a 2-3 degree change one direction or another, even that is somewhat unusual, especially for the first 3-4 days of my original forecast. Every so often though, that gets blown out of the water and today may be one of those days. It's all because of a warm front that now lies just north of here and may go a bit farther north today, placing us in the warm air for a little while. The problem is that tonight that front should sag farther south, effectively changing the same front from a warm front to a cold front. Then this newly crowned cold front will waffle down towards the Lakes region and go stationary and hence become a stationary front on Monday night into Tuesday. We're lucky the atmosphere is loading up with moisture yet, or that the winds aloft aren't going to be perpendicular to that front for a prolonged period of time, although they are setting up to do that for awhile at least. It's a heavy rain set-up, and while I'm expecting rain. the heaviest may be farther north of the metro. Slightly different set-up here and it's a pattern that screams heavy rainfall/flooding.

I'm getting ahead of myself. Take a look at the forecast off the NAM model for tomorrow @ lunch...

Now look at Tuesday @ lunchtime...

The location of this front is key to the temperature potential, or not, for the next several days, and as a result, it's possible there could be a 30-40 degree swing in highs from the far north to the far south side of our viewing area, especially TUE...how KC fares in the wavering front will determine how warm or chilly we are...north side of the front means low clouds/lighter showers. South side of the front means warmth and humidity. I was hoping we'd be either closer to the front or on the south side of it. The modeling since yesterday has been foretelling a different story. Today its saying the same thing and I'm going to probably bite on this for the evening newscast. Hence the MAJOR downward trends int he temperatures for the next several days.

This front, aside from the temperature headaches, also warrants attention because of the potential of storms. We'll be pretty capped for most of the day on TUE...there may be some activity out there MON night and again later Tuesday. There isn't a strong disturbance though to set everything off. The SPC generally has areas from KC eastwards under a slight risk of severe weather. Perhaps the higher tornadic risk on TUE would be towards the SE part of the state up towards the Hannibal,, MO region and eastwards. regardless another busy week of severe weather is expected with the highest days being TUE and then again potentially on FRI. The heaviest rain set-ups may affect areas farther south of KC towards the I-44 corridors from all this story weather in the Plains & Ozarks for the next 5-6 days.

Sadly the death toll from yesterday's outbreak continues to inch up. Almost 2 dozen at last count and still several a re missing. I posted this AM the tower cam shot of a tornado moving in the rain through downtown Raleigh, NC on our MORNING SHOW FACEBOOK PAGE...here is another tornadic storm. Keep in mind that most homes I understand in this part of the country do not have basements and many communities don't have siren systems.

Joe