Strong winds are blowing as expected in the region...with winds gusting to almost 50 MPH around parts of the area. Not only are the winds strong @ the surface, they're also blowing pretty good aloft as well from the SW. Topeka has already set a record high of 87...ours is 82 set in 2005 and we're 81 now. That will break no problem in the next couple of hours.

Aloft the atmosphere is warm as well. Check out the 7AM map @ 10,000 feet, or an altitude that we roughly look for the placement of the CAP....although in reality it's even lower today but you get the idea.

The winds at that level were out of the SW at close to 50 MPH...temperatures at that level are in the 50s, which is way to warm to allow convection to spark through, hence the lack of cloud cover developing in the vertical so far this afternoon. The RUC is persistent in cooling these mid-level temperatures this afternoon, perhaps overly so. The folks in Topeka will be sending up a special balloon at 3PM today to get another look at the atmosphere. My feeling is that through 6PM, and perhaps 7PM we're fine here.

The CAP should break as the atmosphere cools off at that level after 6PM tonight, combined with the progress of a cold front which is now slicing through NE...

This cold front should arrive, very close to sunset...and it'll be a race to see if the CAP breaks in time, or if the front races through and the storms that form are behind the front. That potential would increase the hail threat and virtually eliminate the tornado threat from the storms. Although I've never been very keen on the potential of tornados with this set-up.

The atmosphere is certainly unstable. Here are the latest CAPE values, the higher the number the higher the instability...

The colored hatched area represents the amount inhibition that is holding the atmosphere in place...or essentially the strength of the cap. It's a lot now!

So the bottom line is that storms should pop between 7-9pm tonight. They will rapidly become severe with the highest potential being hail/severe winds...

I'm out of time...need to get to work.

Joe