Friday, April 1, 2011

It's been a long time since the satellite picture @ 1PM looked something like this...






That, my friends, is generally clear weather across the region. Temperatures as of 2PM are up to 62 @ KCI with the potential of another 3 degree rise in spots. Our convective temp is 60 from the AM's sounding @ Topeka so we're in the process of bubbling up some nice fair weather cumulus clouds as we speak. Perhaps leveling out the temps a bit for the next few hours. Wonderful out there!

Weekend thoughts have not really changed. Shooting for highs in the 60s tomorrow and 80s on Sunday. There may be some 85+ temps in the region, especially S/SW of KC Sunday afternoon if things work out.

Won't last though as a seasonably strong cold front will usher in MUCH chillier weather by MON AM. this will result in a 30+ degree drop in the temperatures from Sunday PM to Monday PM with reading in the 40s and gusty NW winds of 15-30 MPH expected to start the next work week. Add in some drizzle (hopefully that's it) and that is not a nice day showing up. So my weekend weather story will be the FLIP int eh temperatures from Sunday to Monday.

Another topic to my weekend forecasts will be the potential of thunderstorms later Sunday PM into Sunday night as a strong cold front moves into the region. The atmosphere aloft will be rather warm so we'll be capped for much of the day, but as this cap erodes later Sunday, and as the front edges into the 36 highway corridor, storms should erupt and rapidly move off towards the east or ENE. The storm's movement should be close to 45-55 MPH, this should throw up a red flag for the potential of some severe weather with wind/hail being the primary threats as the storms get their act together later Sunday. Don't be surprised if we are under some sort of WATCH by later SUNDAY afternoon.

Again it appears the main threat would be 50-65 MPH winds with the individual storms themselves. The hail threat is there, but shouldn't get too out of control.

Here are SPC's thoughts concerning Sunday...



Here is the NAM forecast for SUN @ 7PM...notice the fronts location, just towards the north of the I-70 corridor...storms should initiate up there and move eastwards, storms out west should move our way. Also the storms to the north may create an outflow and/or push the front towards us, also creating more storms nearby so again from 6PM SUN through 3AM MON, there will be a window for some nasty weather.



The cold air sweeping into the area MON AM will be brief, and by TUE AM will start to move away and as the winds pick back up out of the south on Tuesday, temperatures should return to near average, followed by somewhat warmer air again by WED of next week and then another setback towards the end of next week.

By the way, the New England area is getting themselves a early Spring snowstorm...with amounts in MA in the neighborhood of 1-6", while ME is in the 6-12" range so far with moderate snow falling across that area as I type this.

Have a great weekend...I'll have more tomorrow afternoon.

Joe

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