March has certainly not been the greatest around here. We've been stuck with gray skies for quite a few days lately. MT told me that it's been almost 2 weeks since we've seen a day filled with sunshine around these parts, and it certainly feels tat way out there. Today is no exception with highs running some 15 degrees below average and, despite some brief AM sunshine, we're back to the gray again.

Here is a recap of March thus far...I estimated the high for today @ 49 degrees. We'll see if we get there. Click on that image to make it larger.

This is now our 8th straight day of below average temperaturess and for the most part they've been near double digit below. Despite this, through yesterday we were exactly average for the month. Shows you how warm it was there for about a week or so from the 16th-22nd. Let's hope that April is a better month. The latest longer rang progs shows some nice warm days in thefirst week...but another sharp cool down is expected  on Monday-Tuesday AM. the good thing is that everything is moving at a real fast pace so the chills won't be as long, assuming we don't get stuck in a gray stretch again.

We'll actually be in pretty good shape for the next few days. Tomorrow we should pop to the 60s and be in that area on on SAT. A rather impressive storm is going to get it's act together on SUN in the Plains states, fueled at the surface by an increasing temperature contrast from the Dakotas to the Southern Plains states. Take a look at the latest GFS showing the contrast developing...

Those are the 30s in blue and the 90s in the pinkish areas in TX. Now here is the surface map 12 hours later...

This storm comes through sometime MON AM...so we'll dump back intot he colder air on Monday. Before that front gets here on Sunday we may soar into the 80s around here, then on Monday we should be some 30+ cooler. The GFS is about 12 hours slower with the storm, which is possible. So IF we can slow down the storm a bit, we MAY be able to squeak out a milder start MON AM before the colder air arrives.

Usually thoughts turn to severe weather with scenarios like this...right now it's not exactly a great set-up for anything that dramatic for us...perhaps so well of to the east of the region...but the SPC folks are watching the developments in their longer range progs. Keep in mind they base those progs on the overnight data.

Meanwhile, if you love snow...about about 61 feet worth...with another month+ to go to add on to those numbers...it's out in California!

Joe

I promised you this AM that I would post the Opening Day weather over the past 10+ years out at the K here on the blog. Well my routine is that on the weekends I get home after the AM show, take a nap, wake-up, look at weather data then post a blog from the house before I head back to work in the PM. I do it this way so that you get the blog earlier in the day as opposed to waiting for me to get to work and posting it there. Problem is that I usually forget my research at the station and don't bring it home with me. So is the case today.

I'll get that information to you later this afternoon before 6PM if you want to check back.

Weatherwise, cloud, as expected are holding tough right now with few hopes of much sunshine for KC. There actually are some nice breaks off towards the NE of KC now.Temperatures are in the upper 30s. The lift though is interesting and has created an area of some light snow which is moving through parts of Eastern KS. This precip is encountering a lot of dry air aloft right now so it's being chewed away on as it moves into the area. This process will continue for awhile this afternoon but by looking at radar, I wouldn't be surprised if the moisture overwhelms the this dry air and eventually we start seeing the snow make it to the ground. It'll tend to blow around a bit and maybe create a dusting in spots.

Another potential system is due in on Tuesday. This will also bring us a potential rain to snow scenario. Again areas farther north need to watch this one carefully as there could be an accumulating snow up towards the NE/IA border region. This system should be a bit more organized than these previous systems, as it is stronger now along the NW coastline.

Though it should weaken a bit as it moves through the Plains, the strength of the system should pull in enough warm air above the surface to create a cold rain here. As the storm moves through the colder air will be brought back down and there could be a several hour window of snowfall in the metro. At this point I'm not expecting accumulations for KC proper. Again the best chance of some accums should be well north of here. It should be noted that the EURO gives us very little precip at all out of this event.

Have a great week...KU better get their act together, they're looking shell-shocked right now.

Joe



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Some rain...some sleet, some snowflakes (large) and a lot of gray, chilly weather. That pretty much sums up this not-so-chamber of commerce weather in the region this afternoon. A weak disturbance is sliding through the region. It's really too weak to generate anything more than mixed precip showers in the area. Some of the heavier bands are producing snow rates that are heavy enough to accumulate, especially on grassy surfaces. Here is a look at the radar...as I type this there are some heavier bands of mixed precip down towards teh south of the metro...

Some accums of snow are possible in Miami/Cass/Johnson (MO) and areas just off to the SE of there.

This wave will exit the area this evening...unfortunately there will be a lot of moisture stuck in the area so any sunshine tomorrow will be limited to the PM hours I think. Overall another chilly day is expected with highs between 38-43 degrees. Monday will be between systems but at least it should be somewhat brighter with highs back into the 45-50 range.

Then there is Tuesday as another stronger wave, perhaps somewhat stronger, moves through the Midwest. The air aloft will be pretty chilly so whatever falls will certainly be capable of producing snowfall again. The issue again is that there may not be a lot of organization to the storm this far to the north. Most of the heavier precip may be farther southwards. It's still early in the game for this next storm, so it'll be something to watch for another couple of days.

After that we will be in much better shape as temperatures moderate to near 50-55 on Opening Day (THU) then warm well into the 60s and hopefully 70s heading towards next weekend.

That's about it for the day...Congratulations to Chenna and Samantha, a couple of winners of the 60th Greater KC Science Fair. I presented two awards today at the Awards ceremony!

Joe


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Spring is almost "officially" here. As of this writing we're about 4+ hours away. It starts @ 6:21 CDT tonight.

As if on cue, Mother Nature has swapped one cool airmass out and replaced it with another, warmer and more moist airmass. Temperatures went up all night and by daybreak were in the middle 50s. Now we're approaching 75 degrees, a welcome change. With the warmth comes some gulf moisture. Dewpoints, which yesterday were in the 30s now are in the mid to upper 50s with strong S/SSW winds of 15-30 MPH. All going according to plan. Now the question is whether or not the increasing heat and instability can create any T/Storms. For the next 6 hours I think the chances are extremely low. While the heat is there (to a March degree) and the dewpoints are there...55+ is acceptable, there is really no trigger nearby at this point to spark convection. There is one though not far away and that is a cold front which will sneak into the region tonight. Here is the front now...up to the NW of KC...

The thing is...any storms that can fire up do have the potential of becoming severe...the SPC has parts of the region under a SLIGHT risk (sidenote: I had a humerous at times discussion with one of the leaders of the SPC FRI and SAT about the word SLIGHT. Another you make sense but to change things in the Government is nearly impossible type things) but I digress...

The main issue aloft right now, and for the next few hours while the instability is greatest is that we're CAPPED...temperatures aloft are close to +5 at 10,000. This layer of air will cool down a few degrees tonight however so it does bear watching as the front edges into N MO and NE KS.

It should stall close to or north of the I-70 corridor tomorrow AM and then retreat back to the north on MON PM as a warm front placing the metro squarely in this same airmass. As I mentioned yesterday there is a bust potential to the highs tomorrow is this doesn't work out as I expect it to. There also maybe somewhat of a 10-15+ degree spread from N>S tomorrow PM depending on the progress of the front's retreat.

Then we set up a potential risk of severe weather on Tuesday as a stronger storm will organize and eventually drag a cold front through the region.

The SPC is watching this day, however as with most March set-ups there are always questions on instability, clouds timiing etc...

These are the probabilities of severe weather, as a SLIGHT risk has been put out for our region...

Here is the NAM forecast for 7PM Tuesday evening...showing an impressive Low across E NE, with a dry line/warm front/occluded front called a TRIPLE POINT.

Near and just to the E/ESE of here is where one needs to watch for severe weather. During certain situations the atmosphere can be very volatile, especially later into the spring season.

Colder weather will follow this storm later in the week, especially THU through SAT. Need to watch that because there should be some sort of wave moving out through the Rockies sometime on FRI.

Have a great week...I'll visit with you again later in the week.

Joe

Well last weekend I was predicting 76 for today's highs. It turns out I underestimated the potential by a few degrees. We've made it up to 79 (so far @ KCI) and there is the potential for another 1-2 degree pop in the next hour. The record is 82. We shouldn't get there, but despite the gusty winds, it's been a great St Patrick's Day.

DH, MT and I all participated in the HUGE parade in down Broadway in KCMO this afternoon. That was probably the biggest crowd I've seen for one of these parades in many a year. It was packed. A lot of waving to to folks 20+ deep in the crowd. Very impressive and thanks for all the screams if you were down there. We're wind-blown but all had a great time.

The weather is changing over the next 6 hours as a cold front moves through the region. Here is the 3PM map showing the front not too far away now. This will drop our temperatures some 20-30 degrees tomorrow.

The air behind this front is seasonably cool. The average high for this time of the year is 55. So we'll be closer to that for the next couple of days before temperatures warm up again on Sunday.

This front will get down to our south and stall. The moisture will gradually be on the increase to the south of KC tomorrow...here is the NAM dewpoints forecast for the country. You can see the thicker moisture pooling to the south of KC...

Notice that by Sunday that moisture returns northwards...

As this transition occurs, rain will break out through the plains states on Saturday. The timing looks to be more towards SAT PM as opposed to SAT AM...but SAT will be a pretty gray and cool day with highs in the 40s to lower 50s...again here is the NAM portrayal...

The GFS has this rain a bit farther northwards while the EURO has the rain around here and then lingers the chances through SUN AM...

By SUN PM the cold front of today will be retreating northwards as a warm front and the warmer air will spread back into the region to finish the weekend. So depending on the amount of sunshine we get, there is potential of highs warming well through the 60s, if not warmer, to finish the weekend.

Another storm and cold front will sweep into the area sometime TUE...this will again send our temperatures back down through the middle of the week. Overall, very typical March weather around these parts with lots of ups and downs...not snow showing up though. As now I'm finally wondering if that may be the end of the snow season around here. KCI is now up to almost 37"

Have a great TGIF...one of my Sweet 16 teams is already gone (Louisville) and KY is on the ropes.

Joe

10 PM Forecast

Joe

This is what I showed @ 5PM...it IS subject to revision...still don't expect snow to be an issue till the wee hours of tomorrow morning...but it could be a big slushy headache for the AM rush...and somebody in our viewing area (highest chance to the S/SE of the metro) may end up with 4-8" of a heavy wet snow...

Joe